Review: Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy

Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy by Cathy O'Neil
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

An actual, important and insightful book that everyone should read, but should be mandatory for every data practitioners, managers and decision/policy makers.

It provides several examples whereby mathematical/statistics models can go wary and produce outcomes significantly different from the ones original sought and create or reinforce bias, perpetuate trends, reinforce segregation and produce pure bad results and behaviors.

And all this happens while most of the times the models were created with the best intention, of course there are also the cases that some were created to generate and exploit systematical the debilities of specific groups or individuals.

My key takeaways of the book to address most of the identified problems are:
- all models are simplifications of complex realities (full stop);
- when creating a model one should be cognizant of the previous, thus adapt and embrace that it will not be able to address all the variables, so trade-offs have to be made, but those should be made explicit;
- the variables and trade-offs should be made by its relative importance and not because they are quantitively available and make the model work better from an statistical/econometric perspective;
- the models should not be black boxes and transparency should be granted to all the ones that are using it (the user have the right to know);
- the models should be continuously monitored and adapted to the new realities;
- the outcomes and the impact of the model should also be assessed on a systematically way, to ensure there are no unintended consequences of its use.

I'm still a strong believer that these models when properly applied are of great value to underpin the human development, but they can really become WMD if not understood, controlled and monitored by the experts and by the society as all (through regulators, policies in place and by the individuals).

However, there should always be an ethical commitment by the ones who are creating them, this community cannot be neutral to what they are creating.

I feel on my day-to-day work that the model creators do not like to share and are unwilling to share their work with the others (within the society or organization) and that has to change dramatically. The mathematicians, statisticians and data-scientist have to develop their communication skills to be able to explain the models created to any audience they face (not the other way around). If you cannot explain it in 5 minutes and easily is because you do not know it thoroughly!

Regarding the book i think it emphasizes too much on the examples of WMD (after 4/5 the reader gets the point the author is trying to make) and does not focus sufficiently on the potential solutions for the problems presented.

Do recommend its reading.


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Review: International Business Communication Standards: Conceptual, Perceptual, and Semantic Design of Comprehensible Business Reports, Presentations, and Dashboards

International Business Communication Standards: Conceptual, Perceptual, and Semantic Design of Comprehensible Business Reports, Presentations, and Dashboards by Rolf Hichert
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

A great small hand(y)book on how to create, develop and present business reports.

It lays-out a set of simple and thorough standards on business communication, also covering the necessary and required theory to frame the main concepts (it also guides you where to find more fundamental knowledge if you find appropriate).

It's really an hands-on book with lots of examples, suggestions and tips that you can immediately apply to your reports, some simple and other more elaborated but all grounded in key simple and valuable principles.

Made me think critically on several reports I'm using and will definitely promote some changes based on this insights and knowledge i got while reading it. Will have it by my side every time i will be creating or reviewing a business report and whatever business communication.

A spillover of the reading this book, is that I have decided to reread the book "The Pyramid Principle", it's been a while that i did it and refresher will be helpful.

Strongly recommend its reading to all interested on this subject.  

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Review: The First Cell: And the Human Costs of Pursuing Cancer to the Last

The First Cell: And the Human Costs of Pursuing Cancer to the Last by Azra Raza
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

Decided to read this book after listening to the Author on an Econtalk podcast.

There was something on how Azra Raza explained the key message of the book and the humanity conveyed in such discussion that immediately "magnated" me into reading it.

A disturbing book about cancer, its impact on the lives of those who have to deal with it (on the first person or related family and friends), that more than once made me stop, take a deep breath and reflect, before i could continue.

The key message presented, that the cancer research and associated mainstream treatment (slash, poison and burn) did do not evolve that much in the last 50 years, adheres to reality and that the proposed paradigm shift that she proposes looks also so well grounded. balanced and logic that it seems strange that the proposed approach (to detect the first cell instead of treating millions of them after it is widespread) does not have more interest, momentum and investment.

Sometime it seems that, once again, it's a question of an incorrect incentives and rewards system put in place, that does not allow to make tangible progress on this important subject.

Regarding the author, an oncologist, that experienced all the portrayed stories being an active participant in each of them, you can feel the humanity, empathy, care, frustration and sense impotence she experience with each.

Strongly recommend its reading to all interested in the subject.


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Review: Written in History: Letters that Changed the World

Written in History: Letters that Changed the World by Simon Sebag Montefiore
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

Started this books with great expectations after listening to an Intelligence Squared podcast about it.

It was probably due to this high expectations that I gave only a rating of 3/5 starts.

The book discloses several letters throughout history and explains the context when they were written in an interesting and some times compelling way.

Nonetheless, only an handful of them provide credit to the title of the book, others have some historic interest but just that and others looked more like personal life anecdotes of illustrious historic figures.

Saying that, the time reading was short, well spent and light-spirited.

However, before starting it you should consider the opportunity cost of such decision (i.e. have in mind other books you might want to read first)

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Review: Fifty Economic Fallacies Exposed

Fifty Economic Fallacies Exposed by Geoffrey Edward Wood
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

A small handbook that explains in a simple way 50 economic concepts that usually people get it wrong.

The book was written in a way that someone that is not an expert in the field can easily read it and understand its concepts and the main flaws commonly assumed.

The big problem about these fallacies is that they are widely used by policy makers and politicians, sometimes knowingly or in some case due to ignorance. to promote their conservative, progressive or libertarian ideas (you have it for all tastes).

Strongly advise all (specially the 2 groups previously highlighted) to read this book and that all keep it handy when you hear so called pundits talking about these key economic principles.

The only caveats that i could find while reading it were:
1) The book is strongly biased to the UK reality, that from a fallacies perspective is not a problem, but it explain them almost only with British examples;
2) The author has some unresolved issue with Gordon Brown when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer.

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Review: The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People: Powerful Lessons in Personal Change

The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People: Powerful Lessons in Personal Change by Stephen R. Covey
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

Must confess that i had some (not so good) preconceived ideas about this book and that was the reason why it took me so long to start reading it even after i had bought it for some time.

My main rationale was: What could a best seller that sounded like a self-help book could offer me :-)?

Only when i saw it recommend it 2/3 other books and listen to it as a reference in also a couple of podcasts. i have decided to reluctantly start such endeavor... and what a pleasant surprise it was, i really liked it.

I liked the overall framework (7 habits) and how it is exposed, I liked the basic concepts (e.g what are values, principles, the habits, etc...), I liked that you can try to live and strive to improve the proposed habits and that those are actionable and ground to earth.

Like in every book, its value resided in the intersection of what the author wants to convey and what the reader can and takes out of it. The former is static when the book is published the latter is dynamic and depends on the reader and of course its context.

I will try to take the most of what has been shared in its simplicity and practicability, but at the same time be aware of the complexity of walking the proposed path.

I definitely recommend its reading.


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Review: Futebol ao Sol e à Sombra

Futebol ao Sol e à Sombra by Eduardo Galeano
My rating: 5 of 5 stars

Um livro obrigatório para todos aqueles que gostam, apreciam e desfrutam do jogo de futebol, escrito por alguém que comparte a mesma paixão e que a associa ao dom da escrita.

Estes retratos tão definidos, ao mesmo tempo tão sentidos, e que nos transportam como máquina do tempo para cada um desses lugares e nos fazem viver cada momento aqui e agora.

Existem aqueles momentos de que ouvimos falar, outros que não conhecíamos e outros que os pudemos viver e também desfrutar.

Não é uma obra-prima da literatura contemporânea, mas capta de uma forma única o sentir futebol e todas as emoções que com ele vivemos.

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Review: Esteja eu onde estiver

Esteja eu onde estiver by Romana Petri
My rating: 2 of 5 stars

Livro de fácil leitura...mas apenas isso.

Uma história sobre uma família como muitas outras, tem o adicional de passar-se em Lisboa num tempo não tão distante e em parte do enredo poder identificar(-me) algumas situaçoes.

570 páginas de livro que confesso que terminei com alguma dificuldade, não porque fosse uma leitura difícl/penosa, mas porque a história ficou previsível e com pouco ritmo.

Caso nao tenha mais nada que ler, queira passar algum tempo e queira algo mt leve, este livro poderá ser uma opção, contudo existem outros livros ou actividades que devem ser equacionadas antes de começar esta "empreitada".

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Review: The Three Languages of Politics: Talking Across the Political Divides

The Three Languages of Politics: Talking Across the Political Divides by Arnold Kling
My rating: 5 of 5 stars

A great (small/efficient< 150 pages) book, it explains in a simple and concise way the basics of the major political divide and why the majority tend to go to the extremes while debating it and be so intransigent to the others who see differently from us and finally why in the public domain it's so difficult to have a sound and value-added discussion about politics and policy options,

Don't expect it to be an in-depth political science book, but one that tries to explain the divide, one that lays the foundation of the communication (languages) problems and how we could start changing the current status.

The 3 axis are heuristics/rules of thumb of the 3 main political tendencies and should not be seen as an extensive portrait of each spectrum (they, are used to exemplify, sometimes to the extreme, why we cannot understand each other and find a common ground.

Its simplicity, objectivity and capacity to convey the thesis that the author presents (and that i fully relate to), coupled with a great capacity of synthesis, not extending beyond the fundamental of your argument (in area that could push you to do so), made me give a 5 stars rating.

Strongly advise its reading as its reach and insights will last way more that the time you will invest in it, and it's applicable not only to politics but other areas,

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Sunday thoughts - while Peppa Pig and the kind is playing nonstop on my tele.

Another Sunday morning, Peppa Pig, Paw Patrol and SpongeBob are playing non stop on the tele, for the happiness of my 3 kids and my mind tries find refuge somewhere else for the sake of my mental sanity.

Is based on this setup that i started thinking about an article that i have read in the Economist that basically was saying that all the latest big successful IPOs were almost exclusively done by companies that had blitzscaled based on business models that the winner takes it all, thus growth at all cost trumps anything else and the price they charge for the services/products provided are significantly below the price of its marginal costs and even not mentioning its value (the Uber, Lyft, Neflix, Spotify, Tesla's of these world). This, then creates an huge consumer surplus and on a macro level tames the inflation on the big economies.

If we compound all the direct effects created by this trend and also the spillovers to the other industries, we mix it with the trade wars and the massive subsidies that are being given to the Agricultural sector in the US and also in EU (the latter something almost perennial since the EU inception), we see that most probably the current low inflation could be the results of all these non natural factors that cannot be sustained on the long term (the markets are already asking positive results to these companies and that can only be achieved with higher prices that the end-consumer will have to pay eventually).

Then if we go from the Micro to Macro, we see that the QE and historical low interest rates (even negative) can be done only in an environment of low inflation and even with this big stimulus we denote that the economic growth prospects are dismal to say the least to the advanced economies.

So if inflation picks-up due to this rebalancing of the current pricing levels of these everyday more important products/services in the CPI basket (technological and agricultural ones) and the low inflation scenario disappear are we set to a major disruption in Macro terms?

Well, just started an episode of Motown Magic that i really like, thus have decided to stop the nonsense thinking and enjoy the music and the story with my 3 kids! Enjoy the weekend!

Review: The Conservative Sensibility

The Conservative Sensibility by George F. Will
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

Really enjoyed reading this book and do recommend it to all the ones interested in political science.

I do think that all, so called conservatives or progressives, should read it so they can have a better perspective on what Conservatism is, entails and projects from a societal standpoint.

Several misconceptions and believes from both sides are exposed, analyzed and significantly challenged. You might not agree with everything (even be far from that), but, as it's presented, will allow you to think about it and stress your own philosophy and political building blocks.

The big question is: are there natural rights, consequence of the human existence and uniqueness, that supersede any social and moral construct, made by men and imposed by a majority, that should be the overarching principles of any society (eg. "...all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness ..." - take creator as you might feel appropriate). If yes, these principles are prior to any social construct and are its unchangeable foundations.

Based on this premise all the areas of a society (judicial, executive, legislative, economic, science, etc...) should be based and always address and respect these natural rights and protect them no matter what (the so called conservative sensibility).

The book has broaden my way thinking (made me address these problems in a different way) and pushed the boundaries of my rationale and how I framed some essential questions. Writing that, i do not say that i fully agree with the author, but even when i disagree it made me think of my preconceived and long established ideas.

What I really liked in the book were the areas related with the:
- epistemological framework of the conservative sensibility;
- balance of the 3 political powers (executive, legislative and judicial) and how they have been biased to the executive side and with that the distortion that we can currently see in the society and;
- The political economy chapter.

So why i did not rate it higher (more than 3)? Mainly due to 3 main reason, that are:
1 - the book is significantly biased to the US reality - very interesting, but sometimes limiting the full conservative spectrum;
2 - The book could have between 100 to 150 pages less, the arguments are properly disclosed, explained and rationale/critic presented, however sometimes this exercise is stretched beyond the value added that is generated by the additional pages;
3- The use of quotes to support the author argument are excessive and make the writing to lose momentum and sometimes disappear.

As a final overview, it was a pleasure its reading and time well invested.


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Review: Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

I have finished reading this book more than a couple of weeks ago and although i liked it, it was a kind of disappointment.

Most probably that perception came from a very high expectations that i had when i started reading the book, due to a couple of podcast that i have heard with Annie that made me eager to read the book.

More than a couple of good insights related on:
- (i) how to think in probabilities (bets), instead of the deterministic way we usually do,
- (ii) how one should be able to distinguish the process of decision making (the thing we can improve based on a thorough analysis of our process and also by observing others) and the outcomes, as the latter can be a result of luck and a bad/biased/plain wrong decision making process (Nick the Greek example),
- (iii) how to overcome group biases and create a sound a diverse group to allow you to grow on your decision making process (this one, the one i liked it the most).

The poker analogies, in my opinion, were sometimes forced and with little insight and background, they were used from a 10.000 feet perspective and kind of a moto to introduce a subject, no real and concrete examples of decisions and strategies applied in the actual competitions that Annie was a key figure and connect them to the insights she was able to develop (positive or negative ones).

Most probably this high level perspective was a conscious choice of the writer in order to broaden the potential readers "audience", but kind of left me a "not so sweet" taste in my mouth after reading the book.

All in all, I still fo recommend its reading, specially for readers that would like to have a high level introduction to probabilities and behavior economics, kind of a trailer to future readings.





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Review: Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It

Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It by Chris Voss
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

Great book on negotiation, very practical and easily implementable on your day-to-day work, and very easy to read. Should be mandatory, among others, on every sales capabilities program!

It's a great (if not mandatory) complement to the hard-skills you should know about negotiation and challenged several beliefs that i had and it made me think on how to approach every negotiation process.

Beside reading it, i will study it and will definitely read my notes every time i will enter a more demanding negotiation process to complement the other negotiation tools that i already have in my negotiation strategy bag-pack.

Concepts like:(i) Labels/Accusation Audit, (ii) Calibrated Questions; (iii) Questions to identify deal killers; (iv) how to diffuse deal-killing issues; (v) how to leverage noncash offers, (vi) identify black swans; (vi) how to set goals to maximize your possible outcome (not settle with one that is in the ZOPA range); (vii) how to be a mirror; (viii) how to master the No and get "That's right" moment, etc...are of great value!

Would be great if you do not read it so i can have leverage on the next negotiation process.



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Dynamic Pricing Silver Bullet?

https://www.ibbaka.com/blog/2019/11/7/dynamic-pricing-is-a-two-edged-sword

Fully agree with this great post! When you only have (want to sell) a hammer everything looks like a nail. Every solution has its value and should be applied accordingly and we should avoid to go with the latest trend flow and thoroughly assess the pros & cons and look at the value fundamentals. "...The conflation of willingness to pay and differentiated value has to come to an end. Willingness to pay is an outcome of the creation, communication and delivery of differentiated value. It is an outcome and not a driver. Pretending that you understand value because you can estimate willingness to pay is wrong headed. ..."

Review: The Strategy and Tactics of Pricing: A Guide to Growing More Profitably

The Strategy and Tactics of Pricing: A Guide to Growing More Profitably by Thomas T. Nagle
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

A good text book on pricing in its strategic and tactical perspective. Decided to read it in order to shore-up my Pricing knowledge and it was of great utility. I do recommend its reading for someone that wants to know more about pricing, to the professionals already working to provide a sound framework to their day-to-day activities and allow better decisions that have implicit a tremendous value to the overall organizations they work for.

It provides pricing theory as deemed needed (and if you want to explore more you have a plethora of references you can explore), but it's practical text book that applies the theory presented to actual cases and guides you through such important strategic process. Even in the field on how to determine the pricing level (value, pricing elasticities, etc...) always have a pragmatic and practical approach that one can use immediately.

Pricing is presented where the push comes to shove. i.e. when every company captures the value it has previously created and you can see a lot of value be siphoned away due to bad practices.

From all the applicable concepts presented, i would like to highlight the following:
- The Value Cascade - great representation on how to manage value and then pricing. An how you spill value in each caption
- How to define the best value to your customer;
- How to estimate the economic value estimation (economic vs. psychological);
- How to create break-even sales curves vs. pure elasticities (difficult to estimate in real markets)
- Ethics and law - also a good chapter that push-back some preconceived ideas and limitations,

Do recommend its reading and have it readily available for every pricing professional.



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Review: Competitor Intelligence: How to Get It; How to Use It

Competitor Intelligence: How to Get It; How to Use It by Leonard M. Fuld
My rating: 2 of 5 stars

Read this book based on a recommendation/reference given in another book i was reading, that i liked and do recommend (The Strategy and Tactics of Pricing).

The real classification would be between the 1 and 2 stars, finally i decided to go with a 2 stars due to a couple of good insights and especially to show me that we should always strive to be creative when we do not have readily accessible the intelligence we would find relevant for our own analysis.

It´s a clearly a dated book (1985) and it does not provide sound and practical building blocks to approach the competitor intelligence area of study. It's more a guide where to find data to support such discipline/function, that although most probably relevant for the 1980, it is clearly outdated to a 2020 reader.

The positive, if you take a very positive attitude and try to conceptualize some chapters of the book, you can define your own framework based on the potential difficulties and problems one can find while performing such important task of producing intelligence, mainly by knowing the constraints you have in the public available information on basic sources, and how to find/leverage creative sources of information and even use the some basic sources.

You should strive "mutatis mutandi" to apply some of the tools presented to the reality of 2020 and with that extract the most value of its reading.

In nutshell, if you want to learn something on this subject, this would not be book a i would recommend,

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O-Ring Theory of Development and its importance on a company organization, HR, output & wages

Came across this economic theory by chance (on the Marginal Revolution Blog - Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok) and it was surprisingly insightful, simple and helped to structure my line of thought on the areas of: Management, Organization setup and the importance of Areas of Excellence within an organization. 

Additionally, it also explains the pay gap between excellent (A-players) and very good & below associates (B/C/D - Players).

I strongly advise you to see the video of 19 minutes that provides a great overview of this theory (so you can also understand the math).

So the O-Ring Theory of Development (Michael Kremer, 1993) is underpinned by the following assumptions:

1. Production (broad sense) depends on completing a number of tasks;
2. Failure or quality curtailment of any task reduces the entire product (weakest link problem);
3. Quantity cannot substitute quality (2 mediocre Finance Directors will not do a better job than a great Finance Director)

If you take a broad approach to this production function you have a company or even an entire economy.

Main practical deliverables of such theory:

• Quality matching - you should put your high quality workers together (preferentially allocated to the company areas of excellence, based on its value chain) and the other workers (B/C) also together, instead of mixing them up, as the results will be significantly better;
• Higher quality it will imply better results (i.e. better outputs)
• Higher outputs/results will result in better wages (macroeconomics 101) for any organization & that the function Output/Wages is not linear

• The wage distribution is severely skewed to the right and the talent distribution follows a normal distribution (that is why small incremental talent on the top decile can have a significant impact on the associates wages);

• Workers performing in high-skill firms will have higher wages than low-skill firms (look at the wage gap of tech/pharma companies compared with other industries);
• Talent attracts Talent - High quality worker will want to work with other of the same standards (virtuous cycle)
• There is an tremendous incentive to invest in skills/quality of the workers (company and and associates)
• This theory has several "equilibria", meaning that if your are surrounded by high quality workers it pays-off to invest in becoming one, but if you are within a non-high quality organization it does not pay-off to invest, as your higher potential output will be severely curtailed by the others;
• Capital will be allocated to high quality organizations or within the organization to the areas with the highest quality potential - so if you are investing within your organization make sure you have your A-team on that area.

You can think your organization is performing several activities throughout your value chain, thus applying this theory you can identify bottlenecks, linkages and complementarities and don't forget where are your areas of excellence based on the Value Proposition so you can have your A-players on it!

IMF - Europe 18/10/2019

IMF - Europe 18/10/2019 takeaways:

• Slowdown across advanced Europe from 1,4% to 1.3% specially in Germany, Italy and UK, due to trade tensions and Brexit. 2020 modest recovery of the grwoth rate to 1,5%;
• Demand is strong and it's underpinned by a strong labor market;
• Fiscal policy should be used for the countries with potential expansionary policy slack (Germany / Netherlands) however there are countries that still should be focusing on fiscal consolidation (southern countries);
• Monetary policy should be accommodative as is being implemented by ECB to avoid a recession, however such policy is depletive of potential future monetary policies;
• Emerging Europe is also reducing its growth prospects, still expected to grow at 3,7% and on 2020 at 3,1%;
• Long-term problems remain - productivity and demographics in advanced Europe should be addressed and  Emerging Europe should improve macro-economic policies to tackle structural problems and promote institutions reforms & its governance k«

World Economic Outlook, October 2019 - IMF - Synchronized Slowdown

IMF published on October, 15th 2019 the World Economic Outlook, that reinforces the projections of a synchronized slowdown for the world economy.

My key takeaways:

• 2019 growth rate at 3% for 2019 (below PIIE forecast) and 3,4% for 2020 vs. 3,8% in 2018 due to trade barriers, low productive growth and aging demographics in advanced economies; 
• Advanced economies should slowdown to 1,7% and converging to their potential;
• Downside risk to this projection has significantly increased (trade barriers, geopolitical tensions and Brexit)
• 2020 is expected to go at a slighter better pace driven by emerging markets and base effect, i.e. that global trade activity and manufacturing is so slow in 2019 that 2020 is just picking-up to normal values resulting in a increase of the global growth;
• No recession is foreseen for the next 12 months;
• Trade tensions between US/China (self-inflicted) produced a toll of 0.8% on the world economy,
• Monetary easing in the main economies (USA/EU) is providing a tail wind to the world economy by 0,5%, although it creates additional risks as this preemptive accommodative monetary policy reduce space to fight a potential future recession
• If world economic growth drops to 2,5% it would imply that several advanced economies would be in a recession, thus there is no space to policy missteps;
• Monetary policy cannot not be the only answer to offset this downward trend and fiscal policy should be brought into the game in countries with budget space to accommodate such expansionary policies

World Economic Outlook, October 2019 - IMF

Ideas on solving the Pricing Puzzle - Based on a BCG article

Excellent BCG article on Pricing based on a Wealth management example, although in my opinion applicable to any industry.

What are my main conclusions:

1. Pricing (in all its dimensions) is a key component of a company strategy, not just a tactic lever one should/could use;
2. The top quartile pricing performers have significant better overall results
3. Smart pricing has 4 main components:
• Proper client segmentation (avoid broad-based segmentation on external characteristics easy to define, but on customer behavior and required service levels) ;
• Have a clear value proposition for each segment;
• Optimize the price structure for each segment
• Constantly reassess the above, making it a process and not a 1 time yearly event
• have a clear pricing strategy;
• favor quality over quantity - start small, test, pivot (if needed) and only then deploy. Each company, division, product has its own story;
• Obtain sponsorship within the organization and buy-in (quick wins are important)
• Pricing is a core strategic competence not just a tactic one within marketing
• Embrace Data Analytics - target pricing algorithms, pricing intelligence, etc
4. The Exhibit 6. is self-explanatory and is a great infographic over the key roles and responsibilities of any Pricing team.

Solving the Pricing Puzzle (aWealth management example)