Blog to discuss business trends through the lenses of finance and economics and share ideas/books/articles/podcasts that we find interesting.
Making Space for ‘I’m Sorry’ A must-see: a balanced, sensible, and well-structured statement on this subject — the best I’ve heard so far. “If he said something as bad as what he said, I would still hope there’s room for someone to apologize and say, ‘I’m sorry — I made a huge mistake.’” (text revised llm) https://youtu.be/fuVMzJBzLhI?si=bCJBKOWc_8cEygX_
- Pedro
Read on SubstackThe Art of Noticing Everyday Life The Map of Tiny Perfect Things A good movie to watch with your pre-teen kids. An easy, entertaining storyline — but when you finish it and reflect on it, you realize how many good messages it conveys. The allegory of living the same day is nothing more than an extreme replica of how we live our lives every day — the routine, the inability to see what’s around us, and even to notice the tiny, perfect things we should enjoy and cherish each and every day. We become so inward-looking that we are completely blind to them. Finally, it also touches on the pain and the path you need to go through when you lose someone dear and close to you. A good combo, I would say, to watch with your kids — or with the kid inside you 🙂 (text revised by a llm) https://www.primevideo.com/detail/0OJWTXRLI9TEU0I224FZAIHQBS/ref=atv_dp_share_cu_r
- Pedro
Read on Substack"It’s hard to compete against someone who’s just there to have fun" A great podcast with Peter Steinberger, the creator and mastermind of OpenClaw, that I strongly advise everyone to listen to (>3 hours at normal speed). It really nudged me to take a step forward and embrace agentic AI without looking back. I will invest a significant part of my leisure time (at least for now) in this topic and also try to have fun building tools/models/stuff leveraging my domain expertise and improving them, AND enjoying the journey. https://youtu.be/YFjfBk8HI5o?si=kqSMob780alfWEUW
- Pedro
Read on Substack13/20… Would You Do Better? AI videos… can you spot the difference? Are you sure? The latest models really make it hard — almost impossible — to identify what’s real and what isn’t. Have a read and take the test. I did, and I was only able to spot 13/20 (which seems to be better than average). That said, even the ones I got right were, in most cases, 50/50 or just slightly better — but not by much. Next time you see a video, activate your critical thinking. Validate the sources and double-check — what you think you saw might not be real. Imagine what can be done, for good and for bad, with this technology. https://runwayml.com/research/theturingreel
- Pedro
Read on Substack“…AI didn’t kill analytics. It killed analytics middlemen. …” When the business user can seamlessly — or with very low friction — navigate data through an LLM, ask relevant questions in natural language, and quickly receive highly accurate answers (instead of waiting days or weeks for feedback from the Analytics team), several things will/are happening: Up to 80% of the analytical work as we know it becomes vulnerable. The traditional task of translating business questions into SQL (or other query languages) and present a BI tool to retrieve and provide answers will increasingly be absorbed by AI. Only the top 20% of analysts will truly thrive. These are the ones who deeply understand the business, grasp the causality behind key variables, and know how to ask the right questions — not just the technically correct ones. Decision-making speed will increase significantly. With fewer intermediaries validating data and generating insights, organizations will reduce the cost of making decisions (which is different from the value of the decision itself). The number of analysts will likely decrease substantially. Translator tasks will be automated by AI. However, the analysts who remain will generate multiple times more value than before. Why? Because they will focus less on querying and more on: Framing the right problems Making recommendations Validating assumptions Running scenarios Assigning probabilities to outcomes Connecting insights to business impact In short, they will move from reporting to providing Intelligence. For a deeper perspective on this shift, I strongly recommend reading the well-designed article by Tree Data Point Thursday.
- Pedro
Read on SubstackFootball: Physical, Cognitive, Psychological Who doesn’t like a good confirmation bias coming their way—especially when it’s backed by a scientific study? For several years now, I’ve been convinced that to be a great football player, athleticism and coordination are just as important as cognitive abilities and personality traits. The paper in the link, “Decoding the elite soccer player’s psychological profile,” presents an extensive study using a robust set of validated psychological tests across several domains, combined with advanced statistical techniques. It shows that elite football players tend to have: 1-Heightened planning and memory capacities. 2-Enhanced executive functions—especially cognitive flexibility—as well as higher levels of conscientiousness, extraversion, and openness to experience. 3-Lower levels of neuroticism and agreeableness. Football is played across three equally important domains: physical, cognitive, and psychological. Of course, I haven’t looked for studies that might prove me wrong 😊—so for now, I’ll fully enjoy my confirmation bias. P.S. I plan to look more closely at how they applied neural network features to the psychological variables to obtain and interpret their results. The approach seems both interesting and potentially applicable to other fields of study. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2415126122?sma=lanewsletterdekikollaneras_2026.02.13&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=lanewsletterdekikollaneras_2026.02.13
- Pedro
Read on SubstackStructured Thinking I came across The Classical Mind Substack article by chance, and it was such a pleasure to read. I’ve always been interested in this topic, as I’ve long felt that my note-taking skills were, at best, subpar — especially when it came to truly benefiting from my notes later on. I constantly faced the dilemma of making them either too extensive or too concise. Most of the time, I couldn’t properly use my notes and had to return to the original source just to make sense of them. Reading this article felt like seeing all the struggles I’ve experienced over time clearly identified and thoughtfully explained through the different methods presented. The “Classical Notes” sheet, in particular, made perfect sense to me. I strongly relate to the method and its approach, and it convinced me that this is something I should genuinely try. I’ve now subscribed to the Substack, and I’m confident you’ll find something valuable in it as well.
- Pedro
Read on SubstackThe Birth Equation A good friend recently drew my attention to a website that offers a simple exercise — yet one with many layers: If you were born again, how would your life change on average? Every minute, 251 people are born around the world. Spin the globe and see where you might be born — and you’ll begin to understand what your life could look like in terms of: 1-Life expectancy 2-Child mortality 3-Median income 4-Expected years of schooling 5-Passport power 6-Democracy index Then compare those figures with what you can expect by living in your own country. Sounds like a simple exercise? Now start peeling it like an onion. Reflect on each of these dimensions and the dynamics behind them. It will make you pause and think about many things we often take for granted. I hope you enjoy this simple yet powerful exercise as much as I did. https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/birth-lottery
- Pedro
Read on SubstackYou don’t have to be America or China to win in AI, says Rishi Sunak https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/07/16/you-dont-have-to-be-america-or-china-to-win-in-ai-says-rishi-sunak From The Economist “As work by Jeffrey Ding of George Washington University shows, the countries that benefit most from these technologies are not necessarily the ones that develop them first, but the ones that adopt them most widely.” I couldn’t agree more with Rishi Sunak’s vision. In this new AI-driven world, the winners will not simply be the inventors — they will be those who adapt fastest and integrate the technology most effectively. It is, in many ways, a 21st-century version of Darwinism. Not survival of the strongest, but again the survival of the most adaptable. Those who integrate this new paradigm into their day-to-day lives — individuals, companies, and nations — will be the ones who succeed. And in this context, Europe has a real opportunity to position itself far more strongly in the emerging global order than many assume. I am often reminded of a quote from a McKinsey presentation on AI implementation in the corporate world: “For every dollar you spend on technology, you should spend five on change management.” Technology alone is not transformation. Adoption is. Culture is. Leadership is. There are rare moments in history that fundamentally reshape the next 50 years. We are living through one of them. Building on the path outlined by Sunak, Europe should focus above all on implementation. Regulation matters — but it must remain a support function, not the driving force. If the legal and regulatory mindset becomes the primary lens through which we approach AI in Europe, we risk missing a historic opportunity. This is not just about competitiveness. It is about rebalancing global power, strengthening Europe’s voice, and increasing the wellbeing of all Europeans. Being proud that our regulation sets the benchmark is not enough if, at the same time, we inadvertently limit our own capacity to innovate and scale. The time to think strategically is now. Let’s not waste it. (text revised by a llm)
- Pedro
Read on SubstackAn interesting article by Euronews on the economic growth of the Iberian countries — Portugal and Spain. While their performance is not extraordinary, they can still be considered relative outliers within the European context. It’s encouraging to see this development in Iberia. At the same time, it serves as a cautionary reminder of how subdued and fragile growth remains across much of the rest of Europe. If you’re interested in the topic, follow the link below. (text revised by a llm) https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/01/30/why-are-spain-and-portugal-growing-twice-as-fast-as-the-eurozone
- Pedro
Read on Substack“…I have always taken the path that feels most right. The result is never in question for me — only the path you choose to get there. And there is always one that is most right….” The 2014 film A Most Violent Year was a pleasant surprise. It’s a finely crafted movie built around a compelling storyline and richly developed characters. The film immerses you in the business entanglements of a newcomer trying to establish himself in a highly consolidated industry, crowded with players tied to New York City’s criminal underworld. If you’re looking for a strong story, excellent performances, and sharp dialogue, look no further — this is a film well worth your time. (text revise by a llm) https://www.primevideo.com/region/eu/detail/0RE7FX2RDNWT1KHVKZB26OO03M/ref=atv_dp_share_cu_r
- Pedro
Read on SubstackReality sometimes surpasses the most extreme far-fetched dystopian novel.... "If he does the job that he's capable, we can grow at 15%. I think more than that." https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2021195305354428607?s=20
- Pedro
Read on SubstackAI is everywhere. In a business context, it feels like every 50 words you read or write, “AI” shows up. But is everything really AI—or are we stretching the term beyond usefulness? This is where the book AI Snake Oil seems valuable. It helps distinguish between what is genuinely pushing the frontier—truly transformative, domain-shifting work—and the vast majority (probably 80%+) of so-called “AI,” which is often just existing tools repackaged under a shinier label: econometrics, statistics, optimization, rules-based systems, and the like. I’ve added the book to my wishlist. Before you decide for yourself, you can also listen to this podcast with the author, which offers a solid preview of the argument. https://podcasts.apple.com/es/podcast/thinkers-ideas/id1450867110?i=1000679081055
- Pedro
Read on SubstackWant to learn more about Beethoven in a way that’s funny, well-crafted, and genuinely educational? Then don’t miss this episode of The Rest Is History, made in collaboration with the Academy of St Martin in the Fields and the Philharmonia Chorus. I really enjoyed it—smart, lively, and surprisingly engaging. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did. (text revised by llm) https://podcasts.apple.com/es/podcast/the-rest-is-history/id1537788786?i=1000682151030
- Pedro
Read on SubstackThe Great Gatsby: Twenty Years Later I had only a mild, foggy memory of reading The Great Gatsby by F. Scott Fitzgerald more than twenty years ago, and of not being particularly impressed by it at the time. Last week, I watched Baz Luhrmann’s film adaptation, and it came as a complete surprise—I realized I didn’t remember a single thing about the story. The film rekindled my interest, and I decided to give the novel another try, as it’s very likely that I—or rather, my younger self—was not able to fully appreciate it back then. As for the movie, I can only recommend it. In an era dominated by reruns, sequels, and the like, it serves as a reminder of how rewarding a truly good story, well told through cinema, can be—and how well spent that time is (something I had almost forgotten). (text revised by a llm) https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1343092/ https://www.primevideo.com/region/eu/detail/0QX5MQ08A4LKK891EPLIYQN2UA/ref=atv_dp_share_cu_r
- Pedro
Read on SubstackIn Memory of Professor John Hull It was with a surprisingly sad and melancholic feeling that I read the news of Professor John Hull’s passing. Not because he was ever my professor, nor because I had the privilege of knowing him personally, but because he has been part of my life for a long time—mainly through his published textbooks, especially Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives (7th Edition). That book enabled me to understand, both conceptually and from a mathematical point of view, what options are and how they can be valued. In doing so, it allowed me to develop my MSc thesis, “Capital Structure Active Management – A Contingent Claim Approach.” For all of this, I offer my heartfelt thanks to Professor Hull, along with my deepest and most sincere condolences to his family. (text revised by a llm) https://repositorio.ucp.pt/entities/publication/25708e4b-dcc0-4130-bd90-e1468c28b7ee https://amzn.eu/d/0iHuM08g https://www.rotman.utoronto.ca/news-events-and-ideas/news-and-stories/2026/january2026/remembering-professor-john-hull/
- Pedro
Read on SubstackIA y matemáticas: cuando la máquina acelera la ciencia https://elpais.com/ciencia/cafe-y-teoremas/2026-01-05/repensando-las-matematicas-en-la-era-de-la-inteligencia-artificial.html “Por ello, la inteligencia artificial multiplica el alcance del experto, pero, en manos del principiante, puede limitarse a amplificar su ruido.” ArtÃculo muy interesante de El PaÃs sobre cómo la inteligencia artificial puede ayudar en el desarrollo del conocimiento y de la ciencia, en particular en el ámbito de las matemáticas. En mi opinión, la IA —hasta prueba en contrario— servirá como un asistente (o cien) que realice todas las comprobaciones necesarias y exhaustivas de las demostraciones y teoremas generados por los cientÃficos, acelerando asà el proceso cientÃfico por un factor de diez. Además, podrá identificar, a partir de grandes volúmenes de datos ruidosos, patrones y conjeturas (extraer señal de datos muy ruidosos) que serÃan muy difÃciles de detectar para un humano o que requerirÃan muchÃsimo tiempo. “Del diálogo entre matemáticas e IA podrÃan nacer tecnologÃas más transparentes y fiables y una mejor comprensión de cómo razona la máquina. Impulsar el encuentro entre estas dos disciplinas, tanto en el ámbito empresarial como en la investigación básica, es, por tanto, una tarea urgente. Y esta sinergia solo puede prosperar con un apoyo fuerte y sostenido a ambas áreas por separado.”
- Pedro
Read on SubstackThe first time I read about NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) was in The Fifth Risk by Michael Lewis (see my note with a short review below), which details what was done to the agency during Trump’s first administration. This news doesn’t surprise me at all. There is clearly much more here than meets the eye, and the consequences are significant. Somewhat surprisingly, the impact will be felt across all of American society—but it will hit Trump’s own voter base particularly hard, which never ceases to amaze me. I recommend taking a few minutes to read this NASA article; it provides an excellent perspective on what this all entails, especially in the context of the climate-change reality we are currently living in. (text revised by a llm) https://substack.com/@pedrosantospinto/note/c-118088045?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=13q5fd https://www.space.com/the-universe/earth/trump-administrations-noaa-layoffs-affected-the-space-weather-service-that-tracks-solar-storms?lrh=03f1438c92c72183949125dd49c074a04610b96b9cf6b57c817d1e3de0af792e
- Pedro
Read on SubstackSix of the best films about love https://economist.com/culture/2025/02/12/six-of-the-best-films-about-love from The Economist The Economist recommends 6 movies about love: 1- Bridget Jones’s Diary (2001) 2- Brokeback Mountain (2005) 3-Casablanca (1942) 4-Past Lives (2023) 5-A Star Is Born (2018) 6-When Harry Met Sally(1989) Must confess that just saw 2 out of the 6 (#1 & #3) but have added all to watch list.
- Pedro
Read on Substack