When Loss Diminishes Our Collective Knowledge

Nuno Loureiro hoped to replicate the energy of the Sun https://www.economist.com/obituary/2026/01/08/nuno-loureiro-hoped-to-replicate-the-energy-of-the-sun From The Economist All lives are unique, special, and important. However, there are some individuals whose loss is felt more deeply because of what they might have achieved in their field of knowledge and the potential impact they could have had on the lives of others. It seems that Nuno’s death is one such case (few Portuguese are featured in The Economist’s obituary section). I did not know Nuno Loureiro before the fateful event of his murder or before reading this obituary. Yet, after reading it, I paused to reflect on how many events like this—events no one can fully explain or understand—are diminishing our collective knowledge. To his family and friends, my deepest condolences. Hopefully, others will follow in his footsteps in the study of reliable fusion energy. (text revise by a llm)

- Pedro

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Siete ideas sencillas para entender la inteligencia artificial

Un artículo muy bueno de El País (Kiko Llaneras) explica de una forma muy sencilla cómo funciona la inteligencia artificial y cuáles son sus diferencias con la inteligencia humana en 7 lecciones: 1- Las máquinas pueden aprender A través de prueba y error va ajustando sus parámetros, ejecutando un proceso larguísimo y a veces opaco, pero que no es magia. 2- La IA tiene habilidades emergentes Ejecutando el proceso presentado en el punto 1 millones de veces, la IA es capaz de detectar sarcasmo y otras formas subjetivas de expresarse sin que nunca se le haya explicado lo que eso significa (lo mismo se aplica a las reglas de gramática de una lengua). 3- La IA aprende con una “evolución cutre” Necesita millones de ejemplos para aprender lo que a un niño le bastan dos o tres ejemplos para entender de qué se trata. 4- Hemos automatizado la cognición Absorbe una cantidad descomunal de conocimiento y aprende los procesos que llevan a utilizar ese conocimiento en problemas reales, viendo cómo se han resuelto antes situaciones concretas (búsqueda de patrones en la resolución de problemas). 5- La IA es más intuitiva que racional Utiliza casi siempre el Sistema 1 de pensamiento (véase Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow). 6- Los humanos también somos patrones Nuestra forma de pensar, como es sabido, aplica continuamente heurísticas para simplificar la solución de problemas complicados, por lo que a veces no somos tan distintos. 7- Vivimos una explosión cámbrica de la IA Estamos atravesando un período de crecimiento rápido, diverso y disruptivo de la inteligencia artificial, comparable a la Explosión Cámbrica en biología (un momento, hace unos 540 millones de años, en el que aparecieron muchísimas formas de vida nuevas en muy poco tiempo). Espero que disfruten tanto como yo su lectura. (texto revisado por llm) https://elpais.com/ideas/2026-01-25/como-piensa-una-inteligencia-artificial-la-gran-sorpresa-es-que-intuye.html?sma=lanewsletterdekikollaneras_2026.01.30_2&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=lanewsletterdekikollaneras_2026.01.30_2

- Pedro

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The Hidden Rules of Sports Betting: Who Wins, Who Gets Blocked

The battle to stop clever people betting https://www.economist.com/christmas-specials/2025/12/18/the-battle-to-stop-clever-people-betting From The Economist An inside look at the sports-betting industry, where you can be classified as a “sharp”—a highly skilled player who is often restricted in your betting—and a “whale”—a big-time loser who is more than welcome to play. Highly skilled players, who know when and what to bet to exploit mispriced odds on the platforms, are profiled based on specific criteria, chased, and restricted in their betting ability. This skews the market and significantly improves the platform’s profitability… (I even wonder if it’s legal to prevent the market from working freely…). I also learned that some people make a living from this activity—and that there are sophisticated schemes, often in legal gray areas, designed to bypass these restrictions. Welcome to the highly profitable world of sports betting! Buckle up and enjoy the ride. (text revise by a llm)

- Pedro

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Rediscovering Adam Smith: Insights from The Economist on 250 Years of Wealth of Nations

Adam Smith is misinterpreted and his influence overstated https://www.economist.com/christmas-specials/2025/12/18/adam-smith-is-misinterpreted-and-his-influence-overstated From The Economist A great piece on Adam Smith by The Economist, using the 250th anniversary of his most famous book, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, as a leitmotif. “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.” In a striking article, it downplays the relative importance of what is actually mentioned in the book versus what has been widely attributed to it. It seems the invisible hand is not explicitly explained or applied to the pricing mechanism as we understand it today, but used in other contexts. Smith also introduces other concepts, such as the “impartial spectator”—an inner monologue or third-party perspective that judges our actions. However, it seems Smith occasionally gets economics “wrong,” for example in the labor theory of value or his discussion/partially support of the Navigation Acts, against free trade mechanisms (as he did acknowledge some secondary benefits, like the growth of the shipping industry). Nonetheless, although it does not seem like easy reading, the article has sparked my interest in finally tackling this book, as well as his earlier major work, The Theory of Moral Sentiments, both of which have been patiently waiting on my bookshelf. (text revise by a llm)

- Pedro

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Standing on the Shoulders of Giants: What Newton Achieved by 26

A great 10-minute explanation of who is the brightest mind in recorded history—Isaac Newton—and why. What have accomplished by 26, standing on the shoulders of all the great minds who came before you? 🙂 Whenever you need a reality check about your achievements, or current challenges, or someone you read on the papers, come back to this video—it provides an immediate sense of perspective and catharsis. Neil deGrasse Tyson, on top of being a brilliant scientist, is also a fantastic communicator, just like his mentor Carl Sagan. https://youtu.be/xKwlp1Ap9XA?si=5PE5VEp9IP1y5lYR

- Pedro

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For Kids, Parents, and the Kid in You

What if the best way to learn about history is by playing with it? https://www.economist.com/christmas-specials/2025/12/18/what-if-the-best-way-to-learn-about-history-is-by-playing-with-it From The Economist Do you have kids—or maybe a kid still alive inside you? Do they (or you) spend countless hours playing games? If the answer to any of these is yes, why not make some of that time educational too? There are plenty of games that can help kids—and adults—learn about specific fields of study. History is the focus of this article, but the same idea applies to other areas of science and knowledge as well. Why not turn playtime into a learning opportunity? It’s a simple way to benefit both you and your kids, without sacrificing fun. Games I’ll be keeping an eye on (especially when they go on promotion): 1- Europa Universalis 5 (eu5) 2- Crusaders Kings 3- Victoria Series 4- Hearts of Iron 5-Imperator:Rome 6- The Civilization 7-Total Wars and remember “When it comes to education, there is no substitute for learning by doing. To teach children Spanish, have them speak it. To teach them art, give them paper and paints. Plenty of tech titans got their start by playing around on a computer in their youth.”

- Pedro

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A Call That Aged Well

After the inspiring and assertive speech by Mark Carney in Davos, I remembered that I had posted something about him following an interview he gave to The Economist, 3 months ago. It is really rewarding to see that my assessment at the time turned out to be right. (text revised by a llm) My linkedin post back in November Great interview with Prime Minister Mark Carney.I must confess, I was genuinely impressed by his performance and his vision for the country.This is clearly linked to his extensive expertise in economics and his previous roles as Governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.As I was listening, I thought to myself: here’s a politician I can truly understand — someone who speaks clearly, sounds reasonable, and demonstrates real knowledge of the issues at hand. https://www.economist.com/insider/the-insider/zanny-minton-beddoes-interviews-mark-carney https://www.linkedin.com/posts/pedrospinto_bonus-episode-zanny-minton-beddoes-interviews-activity-7382474995127529473-asPr?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAD8SDIBEeUyeyA2_0sAKh3TRFMPtKOI5AA

- Pedro

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Un encuentro con Vivaldi en Madrid

El pasado finde (24 de enero) tuve la oportunidad de asistir a Las Cuatro Estaciones de Vivaldi, entre otras obras, en el Auditorio Nacional de Música de Madrid, interpretadas por Délica Chamber Orchestra. Fueron dos horas de puro disfrute musical. Ver en vivo el virtuosismo de las músicas de Délica Chamber Orchestra me deleitó con su interpretación y me transportó a otro mundo, a otra realidad y a otro entorno. Un universo solo mío, donde el bullicio del día a día desapareció y solo existíamos la música y yo. Sea cual sea vuestra preferencia musical, de espectáculo o de hobby, os aconsejo encarecidamente que saquéis tiempo de vuestro día para dedicarlo a ello. https://delicachamber.com/about/ https://open.spotify.com/album/2bP8L39GYpPSN2wnNqTJJr?si=RQi3L8sfTYCZBp1Vdt7RLA https://auditorionacional.inaem.gob.es/es/programacion/excelentia-vivaldi-las-cuatro-estaciones

- Pedro

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Curious About the Human-Dog Connection? Start Here

How wolves became dogs https://www.economist.com/christmas-specials/2025/12/18/how-wolves-became-dogs From The Economist “The only, absolute and best friend a man has, in this selfish world, the only one that will not betray or deny him, is his dog.” Do you have an interest in dogs and want to understand how this almost unique symbiosis between humans and dogs was formed? Look no further and read this insightful article. It doesn’t provide all the answers, but it offers solid intel and opens the door for future research if you want to explore this path “Pet dogs are proliferating, too. Half of American households (65m of them) include a dog, and dog food is a multi-billion-dollar industry. The best friendship in zoology shows little sign of coming to an end” (text revised by a llm)

- Pedro

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Just Finished Michael Lewis’ MasterClass on Storytelling

Just finished the MasterClass with Michael Lewis on how to tell a great story. I took away several valuable insights on communication and how to effectively get your ideas across. Hopefully, in the not-too-distant future, I’ll put together a full post on everything I learned. (text revise by a llm) https://youtu.be/9EhRoVj0kfE?si=gQwASd15zLLsDHob

- Pedro

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Filosofía, inteligencia y más: lo mejor de José Antonio Marina

Muy interesante episodio de Aprendemos Juntos con José Antonio Marina sobre filosofía, inteligencia ¡y mucho más! Espero que lo disfruten tanto como yo. José Antonio Marina reflexiona sobre la capacidad humana de orientarse en un mundo complejo, cambiante y lleno de incertidumbre. Para él, pensar con claridad, elegir con sentido y actuar con responsabilidad es la base de una vida más consciente y justa. Reivindica la filosofía como un servicio público imprescindible. Una disciplina que nos ayuda a distinguir la verdad de la mentira, a evaluar nuestras creencias y a desarrollar pensamiento crítico frente a la manipulación, la desinformación y los discursos simplificadores que nos rodean. José Antonio Marina es filósofo, ensayista y pedagogo, referente internacional en el estudio del pensamiento y la educación. Ha dedicado su trayectoria a comprender cómo aprendemos, decidimos y actuamos. Su obra conecta filosofía, ética y pedagogía con los retos del mundo contemporáneo. https://youtu.be/tRPCqO5UT7U?si=utQN6XPC_h9lyZmH

- Pedro

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Autonomy vs. Power: A Trade-Off Worth Rethinking

Highly recommend this podcast with Jeffrey Pfeffer for its many sharp insights into organizational behavior. In particular, the trade-off between autonomy and power stood out and gave me a lot to think about. https://youtu.be/5YAvw0VzB_E?si=19ouqiK02AXPENHa

- Pedro

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The Case for Structured Job Interviews (and Their Limits)

How to conduct a job interview https://www.economist.com/business/2025/12/18/how-to-conduct-a-job-interview From The Economist “…If you had to construct a really bad way to make an important decision, you might come up with something like the stereotypical job interview….” An interesting article by The Economist on job interviews, which reinforces—once again—that the most effective approach is the structured job interview, with two important caveats: 1-Structured interviews mean using a standardized set of job-related questions asked of every candidate, with responses evaluated against an agreed scoring system. 2-Even when well designed, job interviews—even if structured—are far from perfect predictors of on-the-job performance. They should therefore be complemented with other tools such as personality assessments, work samples, and thorough reference checks (the latter, from my own experience, being particularly valuable). “…if you are interviewing a stranger for a job, it is best done with a script, a scoring system and a hefty dose of realism….” (text revised by a llm)

- Pedro

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Are Western Fertility Rates Really Collapsing—or Are We Measuring Them Wrong?

Very interesting article by The Economist on fertility rates across the West over the past few decades. The commonly accepted view is that fertility has fallen significantly below the replacement rate (2.1 children per woman), implying that population decline in these regions is inevitable in the not-so-distant future. This article argues that the gap may not be as large as it appears, and that part of the issue lies in how the phenomenon is measured. In a nutshell, it comes down to the difference between Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Completed Fertility Rate (CFR)—and how each is calculated. Put simply, the first indicator (TFR), which is the most widely cited, does not account for the fact that women are having children significantly later than in the past. This “tempo effect” skews results toward more dramatic declines. The second indicator (CFR) corrects for this timing issue. While it still shows a decline compared to the past, it is far less severe than what TFR suggests. From a data science perspective, this is a useful reminder: you always need to understand how your KPIs are constructed before interpreting trends. Otherwise, you risk mistaking timing effects for genuine macro-level shifts. The “sentient lizards” parable used to introduce and explain these concepts is a small masterpiece. Highly recommended reading. (text revised by a LLM) Watch who you’re calling childless https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/12/18/watch-who-youre-calling-childless From The Economist

- Pedro

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The best podcasts of 2025 by the Economist

The best podcasts of 2025 https://www.economist.com/culture/2025/12/18/the-best-podcasts-of-2025 From The Economist Do you listen to podcasts? If yes, here’s a list of the ones the Economist considers the best for 2025. Needless to say, they all went straight into my “potential” playlist. I’ll give each one a try, and I’m almost certain that—like in previous years—some will earn a spot on my official rotation. 1- Articles of Interest 2- Final Thoughts: Jerry Springer 3- Fela Kuti: Fear No Man 4-Flesh and Code 5-Heavyweight 6-Missing in the Amazon 7-Past Present Future: Politics on Trial 8-The Protocol 9-Shell Game 10-The Wargame Hope it is helpful. (text revised by a llm)

- Pedro

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The Innovations That Could Change Lives—If We Notice Them

Sometimes you stumble upon articles that almost go unnoticed—even by you—and then, somehow, they resurface in your mind weeks or months later. This is one of them. A group of MIT engineers developed a new water-desalination system designed specifically for groundwater, powered almost entirely by solar energy and, crucially, without relying on batteries or the electric grid. The real breakthrough lies in how the system manages energy. Traditional desalination requires a steady, constant power supply. This new approach allows the process to automatically adapt its energy consumption to the amount of solar power available at any given moment during the day. At the time of publication, the system was able to adjust its operation within a three-minute window, dynamically matching energy use to sunlight. As of December 2024, the system was already sourcing about 77% of its required energy directly from solar panels—an improvement of roughly 91% compared to previous designs. The researchers believe they could reach close to 100% solar operation by reducing the adjustment window from minutes to second-by-second control. The potential impact of this technology is enormous. Imagine being able to provide affordable, desalinated drinking water to thousands of communities around the world that currently face severe water scarcity or lack reliable access to clean water altogether. Hopefully, this kind of innovation will move from prototype to widespread deployment in the near future—and, in doing so, meaningfully improve the lives of millions of people. It also makes you reflect on how many people are quietly working on deeply impactful R&D efforts—projects that, if successful, could transform living conditions for so many—yet remain largely unnoticed by the rest of the world. (text revised by a llm) https://news.mit.edu/2024/solar-powered-desalination-system-requires-no-extra-batteries-1008

- Pedro

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What Caught My Attention This Week

This week, I decided to start a review of the things that caught my attention over the past week and that I think are worth sharing with you.

The plan is to make this a weekly or biweekly feature (still to be defined).

Some of these may resonate with you as well.

A few of the items I share here may later evolve into full posts.

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Currently reading:

1- Ethics by Benedict de Spinoza:

A profoundly beautiful and uniquely insightful description of the universe, Benedict de Spinoza's Ethics is one of the masterpieces of Enlightenment-era philosophy.

Published shortly after his death, the Ethics is undoubtedly Spinoza's greatest work - an elegant, fully cohesive cosmology derived from first principles, providing a coherent picture of reality, and a guide to the meaning of an ethical life. Following a logical step-by-step format, it defines in turn the nature of God, the mind, the emotions, human bondage to the emotions, and the power of understanding - moving from a consideration of the eternal, to speculate upon humanity's place in the natural order, the nature of freedom and the path to attainable happiness. A powerful work of elegant simplicity, the Ethics is a brilliantly insightful consideration of the possibility of redemption through intense thought and philosophical reflection. The Ethics is presented in the standard translation of the work by Edwin Curley. This edition also includes an introduction by Stuart Hampshire, outlining Spinoza's philosophy and placing it in context.

2- On War by Carl von Clausewitz:

Clausewitz had many aphorisms, of which the most famous is, "War is not merely a political act, but also a political instrument, a continuation of political relations, a carrying out of the same by other means," a working definition of war which has won wide acceptance.

Share

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Podcasts that I found interesting

1- Reed Hastings - Building Netflix

2- The future of intelligence with Demis Hassabis

3- The arrival of AGI with Shane Legg

4- 10 yeats of Acquired (with Michael Lewis)

5- Sin noticias de Gurb

6 - Joan of Arc - Warrior Maid

7- Wagner: Live at the Royal Albert Hall

8- How to make a few more billion dollars: Brad Jacobs

9- Film club: our sci-fi favourites - https://ift.tt/048IMtE

10- Unfinished business (part 1): quantum physics turns 100

https://ift.tt/tlax9rk

11- Unfinished business (part 2): fixing the “biggest problem” in physics

https://ift.tt/CmBZeSE

12- A conversation with Binyamin Netanyahu

https://ift.tt/HPBmhkQ

13- The technologies to watch in 2026

https://ift.tt/K2HUN5u

14- How is AI changing warfare?

https://ift.tt/Luvfd0n

Leave a comment

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Articles that I found interesting

1- Your Analytics team is dead man walking

Three Data Point Thursday

Your Analytics Team Is Dead Man Walking.

Read more

24 days ago · 6 likes · 1 comment · Sven Balnojan PhD

2- Highest-Paid Athletes in the World: Comparing Salary/Winnings with Endorsements

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Videos that I found interesting

1- Panel Data Regression Tutorial

2- Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, escritora. Desde África con amor

3- HPI 25: ‘Context is King’ When Interpreting Premier League Match Demands - Dr. Paul Bradley

https://ift.tt/O5ID9Mm

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Movies videos that I found interesting

1- The Amateur

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That’s it for this week. If any of these caught your attention—or if you’ve come across something worth sharing—feel free to reply or leave a comment.

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The Art of Intelligence

Intelligence is like trying to assemble a 1,000-piece puzzle when you only have 250 of the correct pieces. On top of that, you’re surrounded by 5,000 pieces from other puzzles that do nothing but create noise. And yet, based on this incomplete and messy picture, you’re expected to provide an educated opinion on the subject.

A few months ago, I watched a MasterClass on The Art of Intelligence that I found extremely insightful. I took away several valuable “knowledge nuggets” that helped me better structure and challenge my thinking on this topic—and that I’ve since been able to apply to my day-to-day work.

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Below are my notes. Hopefully, they may also be of value to you.

1. What is analysis?

Analysis is not speculation or opinion. Analysis means systematically reviewing all available information, identifying what is relevant, and determining how it fits together to provide insight on a subject. In other words: which puzzle pieces matter, and how do they connect.

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2. Sources of intelligence

There are two primary sources of intelligence:

1. Human (people)

2. Technical

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3. Human vs. technical intelligence

Technical intelligence is important—mandatory, even. However, a good human source of intelligence will always outperform purely technical sources. The key is not access, but quality: the source must be reliable, informed, and credible.

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4. Relationships as a core skill

A defining trait of strong intelligence craftsmanship is the ability to build relationships with key people who can provide relevant and valid insights. This requires trust, which is built by using information consciously, correctly, and responsibly.

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5. The importance of listening

Listening is a critical skill. You must:

• Ask the right and most pertinent questions

• Actively listen to what people—or the data—are telling you

Avoid forcing feedback to fit a pre-existing narrative. As a rule of thumb, follow the WAIT principle:
Why Am I Still Talking?

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6. Building meaningful relationships with sources

• Build trust through patience

• Listen with undivided attention

• Apply the WAIT principle

• Avoid purely transactional relationships

• Understand the other person’s challenges and motivations

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7. Understanding deceit

Establish a baseline behavior for when human sources are telling the truth. As with lie detection techniques, truthful behavior tends to show low variance and consistent patterns. Deception, by contrast, often introduces higher variance, making patterns harder to maintain and identify.

Leave a comment

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8. Creating a safe analytical environment

Create space for honest opinions within your team by:

• Selecting the right people (avoid “yes-men”)

• Giving your opinion last

• Asking junior colleagues to speak first

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9. Bias awareness

• Acknowledge that everyone has biases—and understand their impact

• Be especially alert to anchoring, confirmation, pendulum, groupthink, and mirroring biases

• Always express conclusions with an explicit confidence level

• Beware of compounding bias effects

• Always factor in the motivations of your sources

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10. Managing risk and uncertainty

• Always keep the risk/uncertainty matrix in mind

• Identify as many risks and uncertainties as possible

• Develop mitigation plans for each

• For more refer to my note:

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11. Presenting your conclusions

• Build personal, timely, and close resonance with the decision-maker

• Use accessible language—even for complex or technical topics

• Tailor your message to the decision-maker’s preferred decision-making process

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Conclusion

Intelligence is not about having perfect information—it’s about making sense of imperfection. It requires discipline over instinct, listening over speaking, and humility over certainty. The real craft lies in knowing which puzzle pieces matter, which ones are noise, and how our own biases shape the picture we think we see.

Strong intelligence work is ultimately human work. Trust, relationships, and judgment matter as much as tools and technology. By creating safe spaces for dissent, questioning our assumptions, and clearly communicating uncertainty, we don’t just improve our analysis—we improve the quality of the decisions that follow.

In a world overloaded with data, the advantage belongs not to those who know the most, but to those who think the clearest.

(text revised by a LLM)

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Are We Living Inside a Sci-Fi Movie Already?

Are you a fan of sci-fi movies? Or are you curious about dystopian—or almost dystopian—visions of the future? If so, I highly recommend listening to a great episode of Babbage, the science podcast by The Economist. In it, The Economist’s science correspondents share their favorite sci-fi films—and it’s a fantastic list. Here are the movies they mentioned, along with my own thoughts: 1- Blade Runner (1982) My favorite movie ever. A timeless exploration of identity, technology, and what it means to be human. I also strongly recommend the sequel, Blade Runner 2049, which is surprisingly excellent. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0083658/ 2- Ghost in the Shell Still on my watch list. There’s also a newer live-action version starring Scarlett Johansson, which has sparked mixed reactions. Curious to see how both compare. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt36934560/ 3- The Martian I’ve seen it and liked it—though it didn’t leave a lasting impression on me. Still, a solid and optimistic take on science and problem-solving. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3659388/ 4- Dune (1984) I’ve watched it, but I much prefer the recent adaptation. That said, I would have loved to see the legendary version envisioned by Alejandro Jodorowsky, which was never made. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0087182/ 5- Tenet I’ve already seen it, but it didn’t really make a mark. I might give it another try—some films demand a second viewing. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6723592/ 6- The Matrix I really liked it. When I saw it for the first time, it made a huge impact on how I thought about reality, technology, and control. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0133093/ 7- Colossus: The Forbin Project On my watch list. An early and unsettling take on AI, control, and unintended consequences—still very relevant today. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0064177/ https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2025/12/24/film-club-our-sci-fi-favourites

- Pedro

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Reseña de libro - El inversor inteligente, de Benjamin Graham

Reseña de libro - El inversor inteligente, de Benjamin Graham Mi valoración - 4/5 (Cualitativa - “Me ha gustado mucho”) “El inversor inteligente es un realista que vende al optimista y compra al pesimista.” He leído este libro porque me ha sido recomendado por diversos amigos, conocidos, autores y publicaciones que leo habitualmente. Confieso que mis expectativas eran altas y que una pregunta importante subyacía en mi mente antes de empezar: ¿Qué puede aportarme un libro sobre inversión que vaya más allá de lo que ya he estudiado y aprendido en mi Master in Science in Finance o en la preparación de los distintos niveles del CFA Institute? Tras terminarlo (más de 850 páginas), puedo asegurar que ha sido una muy buena inversión —en este caso, de tiempo— y estoy convencido de que he aprendido mucho. No tanto en términos técnicos (es un libro bastante accesible para un lector medianamente informado en finanzas e inversiones), sino en cómo abordar la lógica y la filosofía de la inversión desde una perspectiva holística, apoyándose en principios fundamentales (first principles) que todo inversor debería interiorizar si aspira a tener éxito en ese arte que es invertir en los mercados financieros. No encontrarás soluciones ni fórmulas mágicas, pero sí principios orientadores clave que, aplicados a tus conocimientos de finanzas, negocio, estrategia y gestión de recursos, te permitirán desarrollar una estructura sólida para la toma de decisiones. Principales premisas que me llevo del libro 1 .Distinción clara entre inversor y especulador. El inversor realiza un análisis exhaustivo ex ante del activo que va a comprar y, basándose en dicho análisis, considera que existe una alta probabilidad de preservar el capital y obtener un rendimiento adecuado al riesgo asumido. 2 .El inversor debe limitarse a activos de empresas relevantes, con un historial prolongado de resultados positivos y una situación financiera sólida. 3 .Para obtener de forma consistente resultados superiores a la media del mercado (alpha), es necesario seguir políticas que inviertan en valores sólidos y prometedores que no gocen de gran popularidad en el momento de la inversión. 4 . La inflación es una variable clave, tanto por su impacto en la valoración de los títulos como por su efecto en la rentabilidad de la actividad de la empresa analizada. 5 .Un inversor inteligente jamás debe prever el futuro basándose exclusivamente en la extrapolación del pasado. 6 .El valor de cualquier inversión es —y siempre será— una función del precio al que se adquiere. 7 .El rendimiento del mercado de valores depende de tres factores: a) Crecimiento real (beneficios y dividendos) b) Crecimiento nominal derivado de la inflación c) Crecimiento de la especulación 8 .Es fundamental vigilar métricas globales de valoración del mercado (PER, CAPE, etc.). PER superiores a 15 y valoraciones por encima de 1,5 veces el valor contable neto son señales de alerta. 9 .El rendimiento alcanzado está directamente relacionado con la cantidad de esfuerzo que el inversor está dispuesto —y es capaz— de dedicar a la inversión (diferencia entre inversor pasivo y “emprendedor”). 10 .Un inversor no debería tener más del 50 % de su cartera en acciones. Solo en casos muy excepcionales, y con una convicción profunda basada en datos y análisis rigurosos, esta regla debería incumplirse. 11 .Cinco reglas para invertir en acciones: a) Diversificación adecuada, pero no excesiva b) Invertir únicamente en empresas de gran tamaño y con financiación conservadora c) Priorizar empresas con historial de pago de dividendos d) Imponer reglas ex ante sobre el precio máximo de compra e) Limitar la exposición a empresas de alto crecimiento (o incluso excluirlas) 12 .El inversor trabaja siempre con una mentalidad de largo plazo. 13 .Es imprescindible tener en cuenta los costes de transacción, lo que favorece carteras más estables. 14 .El inversor debe centrar su atención en grandes empresas que, por razones coyunturales, atraviesan periodos de impopularidad. 15 .Un inversor debe tener muy claro qué puede controlar y qué no. Entre las variables controlables están: a) Precio de compra b) Costes de intermediación c) Costes de cartera d) Expectativas sobre los resultados e) Optimización fiscal f) Su propio comportamiento en el mercado 16 .Aprovechar y analizar toda la información disponible: leer memorias anuales, prestar atención a lo que se dice off the record y, sobre todo, a las notas a los estados financieros. 17 .Factores clave para valorar un título: a) Perspectivas de largo plazo (económicas, políticas, sociales, demográficas, etc.) b) Equipo directivo c) Fortaleza financiera y estructura de capital d) Historial de dividendos e) Pay-out 18 .Antes de invertir, realizar una simulación aplicando la estrategia de forma virtual y validar los resultados potenciales. En definitiva, El inversor inteligente no es solo un libro sobre inversión, sino un tratado sobre disciplina, paciencia y pensamiento independiente. En un entorno dominado por el ruido, la inmediatez y la búsqueda constante de rendimientos rápidos, Graham nos recuerda que invertir con éxito es, ante todo, un ejercicio de carácter. Su mensaje sigue plenamente vigente: quien sea capaz de controlar su comportamiento, respetar los principios fundamentales y aceptar que el mercado no siempre es racional, tendrá una ventaja estructural a largo plazo. Por ello, más que una lectura puntual, este libro es una referencia a la que merece la pena volver periódicamente. (texto revisado por un LLM) https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/5847484850

- Pedro

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