When Reality Outdoes Dystopia

Reality sometimes surpasses the most extreme far-fetched dystopian novel.... "If he does the job that he's capable, we can grow at 15%. I think more than that." https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2021195305354428607?s=20

- Pedro

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AI False Positives: Signal vs. Noise

AI is everywhere. In a business context, it feels like every 50 words you read or write, “AI” shows up. But is everything really AI—or are we stretching the term beyond usefulness? This is where the book AI Snake Oil seems valuable. It helps distinguish between what is genuinely pushing the frontier—truly transformative, domain-shifting work—and the vast majority (probably 80%+) of so-called “AI,” which is often just existing tools repackaged under a shinier label: econometrics, statistics, optimization, rules-based systems, and the like. I’ve added the book to my wishlist. Before you decide for yourself, you can also listen to this podcast with the author, which offers a solid preview of the argument. https://podcasts.apple.com/es/podcast/thinkers-ideas/id1450867110?i=1000679081055

- Pedro

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Sphere Surface

Great visual explanation on how to calculate a sphere surface

- Pedro

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Why This Beethoven Episode Is Worth Your Time

Want to learn more about Beethoven in a way that’s funny, well-crafted, and genuinely educational? Then don’t miss this episode of The Rest Is History, made in collaboration with the Academy of St Martin in the Fields and the Philharmonia Chorus. I really enjoyed it—smart, lively, and surprisingly engaging. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did. (text revised by llm) https://podcasts.apple.com/es/podcast/the-rest-is-history/id1537788786?i=1000682151030

- Pedro

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The Great Gatsby: Twenty Years Later

The Great Gatsby: Twenty Years Later I had only a mild, foggy memory of reading The Great Gatsby by F. Scott Fitzgerald more than twenty years ago, and of not being particularly impressed by it at the time. Last week, I watched Baz Luhrmann’s film adaptation, and it came as a complete surprise—I realized I didn’t remember a single thing about the story. The film rekindled my interest, and I decided to give the novel another try, as it’s very likely that I—or rather, my younger self—was not able to fully appreciate it back then. As for the movie, I can only recommend it. In an era dominated by reruns, sequels, and the like, it serves as a reminder of how rewarding a truly good story, well told through cinema, can be—and how well spent that time is (something I had almost forgotten). (text revised by a llm) https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1343092/ https://www.primevideo.com/region/eu/detail/0QX5MQ08A4LKK891EPLIYQN2UA/ref=atv_dp_share_cu_r

- Pedro

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In Memory of Professor John Hull

In Memory of Professor John Hull It was with a surprisingly sad and melancholic feeling that I read the news of Professor John Hull’s passing. Not because he was ever my professor, nor because I had the privilege of knowing him personally, but because he has been part of my life for a long time—mainly through his published textbooks, especially Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives (7th Edition). That book enabled me to understand, both conceptually and from a mathematical point of view, what options are and how they can be valued. In doing so, it allowed me to develop my MSc thesis, “Capital Structure Active Management – A Contingent Claim Approach.” For all of this, I offer my heartfelt thanks to Professor Hull, along with my deepest and most sincere condolences to his family. (text revised by a llm) https://repositorio.ucp.pt/entities/publication/25708e4b-dcc0-4130-bd90-e1468c28b7ee https://amzn.eu/d/0iHuM08g https://www.rotman.utoronto.ca/news-events-and-ideas/news-and-stories/2026/january2026/remembering-professor-john-hull/

- Pedro

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IA y matemáticas: cuando la máquina acelera la ciencia

IA y matemáticas: cuando la máquina acelera la ciencia https://elpais.com/ciencia/cafe-y-teoremas/2026-01-05/repensando-las-matematicas-en-la-era-de-la-inteligencia-artificial.html “Por ello, la inteligencia artificial multiplica el alcance del experto, pero, en manos del principiante, puede limitarse a amplificar su ruido.” Artículo muy interesante de El País sobre cómo la inteligencia artificial puede ayudar en el desarrollo del conocimiento y de la ciencia, en particular en el ámbito de las matemáticas. En mi opinión, la IA —hasta prueba en contrario— servirá como un asistente (o cien) que realice todas las comprobaciones necesarias y exhaustivas de las demostraciones y teoremas generados por los científicos, acelerando así el proceso científico por un factor de diez. Además, podrá identificar, a partir de grandes volúmenes de datos ruidosos, patrones y conjeturas (extraer señal de datos muy ruidosos) que serían muy difíciles de detectar para un humano o que requerirían muchísimo tiempo. “Del diálogo entre matemáticas e IA podrían nacer tecnologías más transparentes y fiables y una mejor comprensión de cómo razona la máquina. Impulsar el encuentro entre estas dos disciplinas, tanto en el ámbito empresarial como en la investigación básica, es, por tanto, una tarea urgente. Y esta sinergia solo puede prosperar con un apoyo fuerte y sostenido a ambas áreas por separado.”

- Pedro

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Why NOAA Matters More Than You Think

The first time I read about NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) was in The Fifth Risk by Michael Lewis (see my note with a short review below), which details what was done to the agency during Trump’s first administration. This news doesn’t surprise me at all. There is clearly much more here than meets the eye, and the consequences are significant. Somewhat surprisingly, the impact will be felt across all of American society—but it will hit Trump’s own voter base particularly hard, which never ceases to amaze me. I recommend taking a few minutes to read this NASA article; it provides an excellent perspective on what this all entails, especially in the context of the climate-change reality we are currently living in. (text revised by a llm) https://substack.com/@pedrosantospinto/note/c-118088045?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=13q5fd https://www.space.com/the-universe/earth/trump-administrations-noaa-layoffs-affected-the-space-weather-service-that-tracks-solar-storms?lrh=03f1438c92c72183949125dd49c074a04610b96b9cf6b57c817d1e3de0af792e

- Pedro

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Six Love Stories Recommended by The Economist

Six of the best films about love https://economist.com/culture/2025/02/12/six-of-the-best-films-about-love from The Economist The Economist recommends 6 movies about love: 1- Bridget Jones’s Diary (2001) 2- Brokeback Mountain (2005) 3-Casablanca (1942) 4-Past Lives (2023) 5-A Star Is Born (2018) 6-When Harry Met Sally(1989) Must confess that just saw 2 out of the 6 (#1 & #3) but have added all to watch list.

- Pedro

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Turning Data into Actionable Insights: A Lesson from Football

https://www.hudl.com/blog/hpi-25-dr-paul-bradley Can there be a better way to think about data, statistics, and the importance of context when generating insights and defining action plans than applying them to football? Not for me 🙂 It’s the perfect combo. This excellent presentation by Paul Bradley does exactly that. It starts by showing how data can be transformed into information and then into (good) insights. But the real magic happens when context is added: suddenly, those insights come to life, are enriched to a completely different level (×10), and—most importantly—become actionable. Invest 25 minutes of your time—you won’t regret it. If, like me, you slip into a state of flow, you’ll not only learn how these ideas apply to football, but you’ll also find yourself stepping back, taking a deep breath, and reflecting on how to apply them to your own field (even if it’s not sports-related). You’ll be surprised by how much you can take away. Hope you enjoy it as much as I did! (text revised by a llm)

- Pedro

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Is Malthus Right in Burundi?

Burundi is running out of space https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/01/04/burundi-is-running-out-of-space From The Economist “…Not far from Mr Nduwumwami lives Ezechiel Niyibizi, in abject conditions. His father and uncles fought over the family’s meagre land; after his father died, he was left with nothing. The local government helped him get a tiny house, with an earth floor, and a plot of land ten metres long and wide. When he cannot find waged work, his children sleep hungry….” That sentence made me stop. I took a deep breath and read it again. It still landed like a punch to the stomach. Is Thomas Malthus’s prediction — that “the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power of the earth to produce subsistence” — becoming a reality in Burundi? With 14 million people living in an area not much larger than Wales, even the advances that allow farmers to adopt more intensive and innovative agricultural practices may not be enough. This is something we, in our cozy and comfortable lives, rarely think about. But it is something we should be aware of — and something we should not look away from. (text revised by a llm)

- Pedro

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When Loss Diminishes Our Collective Knowledge

Nuno Loureiro hoped to replicate the energy of the Sun https://www.economist.com/obituary/2026/01/08/nuno-loureiro-hoped-to-replicate-the-energy-of-the-sun From The Economist All lives are unique, special, and important. However, there are some individuals whose loss is felt more deeply because of what they might have achieved in their field of knowledge and the potential impact they could have had on the lives of others. It seems that Nuno’s death is one such case (few Portuguese are featured in The Economist’s obituary section). I did not know Nuno Loureiro before the fateful event of his murder or before reading this obituary. Yet, after reading it, I paused to reflect on how many events like this—events no one can fully explain or understand—are diminishing our collective knowledge. To his family and friends, my deepest condolences. Hopefully, others will follow in his footsteps in the study of reliable fusion energy. (text revise by a llm)

- Pedro

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Siete ideas sencillas para entender la inteligencia artificial

Un artículo muy bueno de El País (Kiko Llaneras) explica de una forma muy sencilla cómo funciona la inteligencia artificial y cuáles son sus diferencias con la inteligencia humana en 7 lecciones: 1- Las máquinas pueden aprender A través de prueba y error va ajustando sus parámetros, ejecutando un proceso larguísimo y a veces opaco, pero que no es magia. 2- La IA tiene habilidades emergentes Ejecutando el proceso presentado en el punto 1 millones de veces, la IA es capaz de detectar sarcasmo y otras formas subjetivas de expresarse sin que nunca se le haya explicado lo que eso significa (lo mismo se aplica a las reglas de gramática de una lengua). 3- La IA aprende con una “evolución cutre” Necesita millones de ejemplos para aprender lo que a un niño le bastan dos o tres ejemplos para entender de qué se trata. 4- Hemos automatizado la cognición Absorbe una cantidad descomunal de conocimiento y aprende los procesos que llevan a utilizar ese conocimiento en problemas reales, viendo cómo se han resuelto antes situaciones concretas (búsqueda de patrones en la resolución de problemas). 5- La IA es más intuitiva que racional Utiliza casi siempre el Sistema 1 de pensamiento (véase Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow). 6- Los humanos también somos patrones Nuestra forma de pensar, como es sabido, aplica continuamente heurísticas para simplificar la solución de problemas complicados, por lo que a veces no somos tan distintos. 7- Vivimos una explosión cámbrica de la IA Estamos atravesando un período de crecimiento rápido, diverso y disruptivo de la inteligencia artificial, comparable a la Explosión Cámbrica en biología (un momento, hace unos 540 millones de años, en el que aparecieron muchísimas formas de vida nuevas en muy poco tiempo). Espero que disfruten tanto como yo su lectura. (texto revisado por llm) https://elpais.com/ideas/2026-01-25/como-piensa-una-inteligencia-artificial-la-gran-sorpresa-es-que-intuye.html?sma=lanewsletterdekikollaneras_2026.01.30_2&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=lanewsletterdekikollaneras_2026.01.30_2

- Pedro

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The Hidden Rules of Sports Betting: Who Wins, Who Gets Blocked

The battle to stop clever people betting https://www.economist.com/christmas-specials/2025/12/18/the-battle-to-stop-clever-people-betting From The Economist An inside look at the sports-betting industry, where you can be classified as a “sharp”—a highly skilled player who is often restricted in your betting—and a “whale”—a big-time loser who is more than welcome to play. Highly skilled players, who know when and what to bet to exploit mispriced odds on the platforms, are profiled based on specific criteria, chased, and restricted in their betting ability. This skews the market and significantly improves the platform’s profitability… (I even wonder if it’s legal to prevent the market from working freely…). I also learned that some people make a living from this activity—and that there are sophisticated schemes, often in legal gray areas, designed to bypass these restrictions. Welcome to the highly profitable world of sports betting! Buckle up and enjoy the ride. (text revise by a llm)

- Pedro

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Rediscovering Adam Smith: Insights from The Economist on 250 Years of Wealth of Nations

Adam Smith is misinterpreted and his influence overstated https://www.economist.com/christmas-specials/2025/12/18/adam-smith-is-misinterpreted-and-his-influence-overstated From The Economist A great piece on Adam Smith by The Economist, using the 250th anniversary of his most famous book, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, as a leitmotif. “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.” In a striking article, it downplays the relative importance of what is actually mentioned in the book versus what has been widely attributed to it. It seems the invisible hand is not explicitly explained or applied to the pricing mechanism as we understand it today, but used in other contexts. Smith also introduces other concepts, such as the “impartial spectator”—an inner monologue or third-party perspective that judges our actions. However, it seems Smith occasionally gets economics “wrong,” for example in the labor theory of value or his discussion/partially support of the Navigation Acts, against free trade mechanisms (as he did acknowledge some secondary benefits, like the growth of the shipping industry). Nonetheless, although it does not seem like easy reading, the article has sparked my interest in finally tackling this book, as well as his earlier major work, The Theory of Moral Sentiments, both of which have been patiently waiting on my bookshelf. (text revise by a llm)

- Pedro

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Standing on the Shoulders of Giants: What Newton Achieved by 26

A great 10-minute explanation of who is the brightest mind in recorded history—Isaac Newton—and why. What have accomplished by 26, standing on the shoulders of all the great minds who came before you? 🙂 Whenever you need a reality check about your achievements, or current challenges, or someone you read on the papers, come back to this video—it provides an immediate sense of perspective and catharsis. Neil deGrasse Tyson, on top of being a brilliant scientist, is also a fantastic communicator, just like his mentor Carl Sagan. https://youtu.be/xKwlp1Ap9XA?si=5PE5VEp9IP1y5lYR

- Pedro

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For Kids, Parents, and the Kid in You

What if the best way to learn about history is by playing with it? https://www.economist.com/christmas-specials/2025/12/18/what-if-the-best-way-to-learn-about-history-is-by-playing-with-it From The Economist Do you have kids—or maybe a kid still alive inside you? Do they (or you) spend countless hours playing games? If the answer to any of these is yes, why not make some of that time educational too? There are plenty of games that can help kids—and adults—learn about specific fields of study. History is the focus of this article, but the same idea applies to other areas of science and knowledge as well. Why not turn playtime into a learning opportunity? It’s a simple way to benefit both you and your kids, without sacrificing fun. Games I’ll be keeping an eye on (especially when they go on promotion): 1- Europa Universalis 5 (eu5) 2- Crusaders Kings 3- Victoria Series 4- Hearts of Iron 5-Imperator:Rome 6- The Civilization 7-Total Wars and remember “When it comes to education, there is no substitute for learning by doing. To teach children Spanish, have them speak it. To teach them art, give them paper and paints. Plenty of tech titans got their start by playing around on a computer in their youth.”

- Pedro

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A Call That Aged Well

After the inspiring and assertive speech by Mark Carney in Davos, I remembered that I had posted something about him following an interview he gave to The Economist, 3 months ago. It is really rewarding to see that my assessment at the time turned out to be right. (text revised by a llm) My linkedin post back in November Great interview with Prime Minister Mark Carney.I must confess, I was genuinely impressed by his performance and his vision for the country.This is clearly linked to his extensive expertise in economics and his previous roles as Governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.As I was listening, I thought to myself: here’s a politician I can truly understand — someone who speaks clearly, sounds reasonable, and demonstrates real knowledge of the issues at hand. https://www.economist.com/insider/the-insider/zanny-minton-beddoes-interviews-mark-carney https://www.linkedin.com/posts/pedrospinto_bonus-episode-zanny-minton-beddoes-interviews-activity-7382474995127529473-asPr?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAD8SDIBEeUyeyA2_0sAKh3TRFMPtKOI5AA

- Pedro

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Un encuentro con Vivaldi en Madrid

El pasado finde (24 de enero) tuve la oportunidad de asistir a Las Cuatro Estaciones de Vivaldi, entre otras obras, en el Auditorio Nacional de Música de Madrid, interpretadas por Délica Chamber Orchestra. Fueron dos horas de puro disfrute musical. Ver en vivo el virtuosismo de las músicas de Délica Chamber Orchestra me deleitó con su interpretación y me transportó a otro mundo, a otra realidad y a otro entorno. Un universo solo mío, donde el bullicio del día a día desapareció y solo existíamos la música y yo. Sea cual sea vuestra preferencia musical, de espectáculo o de hobby, os aconsejo encarecidamente que saquéis tiempo de vuestro día para dedicarlo a ello. https://delicachamber.com/about/ https://open.spotify.com/album/2bP8L39GYpPSN2wnNqTJJr?si=RQi3L8sfTYCZBp1Vdt7RLA https://auditorionacional.inaem.gob.es/es/programacion/excelentia-vivaldi-las-cuatro-estaciones

- Pedro

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Curious About the Human-Dog Connection? Start Here

How wolves became dogs https://www.economist.com/christmas-specials/2025/12/18/how-wolves-became-dogs From The Economist “The only, absolute and best friend a man has, in this selfish world, the only one that will not betray or deny him, is his dog.” Do you have an interest in dogs and want to understand how this almost unique symbiosis between humans and dogs was formed? Look no further and read this insightful article. It doesn’t provide all the answers, but it offers solid intel and opens the door for future research if you want to explore this path “Pet dogs are proliferating, too. Half of American households (65m of them) include a dog, and dog food is a multi-billion-dollar industry. The best friendship in zoology shows little sign of coming to an end” (text revised by a llm)

- Pedro

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