Showing posts with label Risk Premium. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Risk Premium. Show all posts

5/10/2026

Fela Kuti: Fear No Man by Jad Abumrad

Sometimes in life you get overwhelmed, in this case positively overwhelmed, by a book, a piece of music, a painting, a movie… Something sweeps you off your feet and makes you stop, think and reflect on what you just experienced.

Fela Kuti – Fear No Man was one of those cases. An extremely well-crafted podcast series (13 episodes in total) about the life and work of Fela Kuti, it gave me so much more than I was expecting when I started it. Its narrative quality and care sometimes made me enter a state of flow while listening, that state where time becomes relative and goes by so quickly.

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Why I liked it so much?

1. Introduced to my universe a major 20th-century artist that I was completely ignorant about.

2. Introduced me to his music and work, which, on top of everything, I really liked.

3. Provided me a brief walk-through of recent Nigerian history, through the lens of his life.

4. Made me stop and think, more than once, about how people live their lives in such a different, rich, and by the same token difficult and complex environment, so far away from my reality.

5. Learnt about music concepts I was not aware of: the “ostinato” rhythm, which makes me feel at home, and “counterpoint,” which is the base of his music and, surprise, surprise, entangles his music with Bach’s one (surprised?).

6. How the author did not sugar-coat the most controversial areas of Fela Kuti’s life, which adds a strong plus to the full narrative.

Fela Kuti: AfroBeat and the Significance of Kalakuta Republic | The ...

If you want to jump to a completely different world and reality without leaving yours, if you want to get to know Fela Kuti, or if you already know him and want to deepen that knowledge, do not waste this opportunity. Start the journey.

I hope you like it as much as I did, and that by the end you just feel a little sad because the series is over.



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5/03/2026

Argos, Second and Final Ticker: XOM

A week ago Argos published its first ticker call. Today, as promised, the second and final of the pair: ExxonMobil. Spot $152.75. The Argos call is HOLD with negative skew. The Monte Carlo base case sits 17% below today’s quote, the bull tail just barely reaches above it, and the disagreement with Street is no longer where it looked a week ago.

This piece walks through what the engine sees, where it disagrees with consensus, and why the call lands at HOLD rather than SELL despite 86.6% of the simulated paths closing below the print. Then a meta-observation on the two published calls, a note on what’s next, and a longer note on what won’t be in the next post.

Xom Argos Full 2026 05 03
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The data the call is sitting on

Before the numbers, the disclosure: the engine runs on financials retrieved from SEC EDGAR. The most recent retrieved filing is the FY2025 10-K (period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-18). XOM publicly released Q1 2026 results on its corporate IR site earlier this week, but the structured 10-Q with XBRL-tagged financials had not yet filed on EDGAR as of the run date. The engine consequently does not pick up Q1 2026 actuals. The Y1 anchor extrapolates from FY2025 actuals plus drift, not from Q1 2026 reported numbers.

Re-run is queued for the moment the 10-Q files on EDGAR, expected around 2026-05-05.

This matters more for this call than for the prior one. Q1 is a real test, and the call is genuinely contingent on it. If revenue prints +17% in line with Street’s FY26 expectation, the MC base case re-prices toward $145 to $160 and the HOLD becomes a missed opportunity. If revenue prints in line with the model’s $336B Y1 anchor (roughly flat year-over-year), Street’s +15% revenue gap collapses toward us and the HOLD with negative skew is the right call. Either outcome will be testable within days of this article going out.

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The distribution Argos sees

The Monte Carlo base case is $127.55. That’s a 16.5% gap to the $152.75 spot. 86.6% of 10,001 simulated paths over a 7-year forecast horizon terminate below today’s price. The P10 to P90 band runs from $101.36 to $156.76, and that detail matters: Bull P90 just barely reaches above spot. Roughly 13% of the simulated paths land at-or-above today’s quote. That’s not nothing.

The DCF sanity check sits at $125.74, inside the MC interquartile range ($113.50 to $142.41). DCF and MC are aligned methodologically. The MC base of $1.81 above DCF reflects right-tail optionality the deterministic single-path DCF cannot price. Y1 EBIT in MC is $41,992M (12.6% margin); Y1 EBIT in DCF is $43,246M (12.9% margin). Both are anchored on FY2025 LTM $41,871M actual.

Now the shape. The MC distribution itself is near-symmetric around its own base: distance from base to P10 is $26, distance from base to P90 is $29. But the distance from spot to P10 is $51, and the distance from spot to P90 is just $4. That asymmetry, structural negative skew versus the market, is what the call is built on. Most outcomes are below spot, the bull tail reaches above, but the bear tail extends much further down than the bull tail extends up.

For comparison: Street median target $165.50 (n=22, mean rec 2.36 / “buy”, split 4 SB / 7 B / 13 H / 1 S). Street is roughly 30% above the MC median. That’s a real disagreement, and it isn’t where you might first guess.

The disagreement with Street is on revenue, not margins

The instinctive first read for an integrated oil major trading at an FY25 EBIT margin of 12.6% with Street targets implying a much richer profitability path would be that the disagreement is about margins. It isn’t.

Street FY26E revenue is $389B. The model’s Y1 anchor is $336B. That’s a +15% revenue drift differential at the top line. Flowed through at an FY24-style 14% EBIT margin (which is roughly what the model’s calibrated forward path supports by Y7), the revenue gap alone produces about $12B more EBIT than the model, which closes much of the gap between the $127.55 MC base case and the Street’s $165.50 target.

The terminal multiple is not the source of disagreement either. The model’s blended exit at 6.73x EV/EBITDA is sector-aligned: Damodaran sector average is 6.30x, live peer median is 7.16x (CVX 11.26x, SHEL 11.54x, COP 7.16x, BP 4.30x, TTE 5.63x). XOM trades at 12.12x trailing today, which is the elevated print, but the model isn’t penalizing the equity for staying at 12x. The exit assumption is that XOM normalizes to a sector-aligned multiple over the forecast horizon. Street isn’t disagreeing with that.

What Street is doing, in effect, is taking a higher oil deck or a faster Upstream/Energy ramp than the model’s peer-anchored drift priors allow. The drift priors are: Upstream 3.5% (anchored on XOM’s own 2024 Investor Day +4.3%/yr volume guide, with a -0.5pp transition haircut), Energy Products 1.0% (refining-capacity-vs-demand compression risk), Chemical Products 2.5% (industry +3% mid-cycle from IHS/WoodMac), Specialty Products 2.5% (blended mature 1.5% with high-growth specialty chemistry 3-4%). Reasonable analysts can disagree on these calibrations. Q1 will pressure-test them.

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Why this is a HOLD and not a SELL

86.6% probability that the long-run trajectory ends below today’s quote sounds like a SELL. It isn’t, and the reason matters.

First, the bull tail. Bull P90 $156.76 reaches above spot. About 13% of the 10,001 paths terminate at-or-above today’s price. Those paths require Upstream margin sustained near 71% with continued Permian and Guyana ramp, Chemical mid-cycle reversion to 8-10% SOI, and Specialty Products 2x earnings target on track. All credible state-of-the-world combinations, not a tail of fantasies. You cannot short a megacap when one in eight of your own modeled paths reaches the strike.

Second, the floor. ExxonMobil’s balance sheet is fortress-grade by every standard credit metric. Altman Z-Score 4.67, deep Safe, and the highest among integrated majors (CVX 3.40, SHEL 3.03, COP 3.26, TTE 2.19, BP 1.76). Interest coverage 69x. Net-debt-to-EBITDA 0.6x. AA-equivalent credit. The Beneish M-Score is -2.75 (Unlikely category for earnings manipulation, 8 of 8 indicators valid). Distress probability is 0.0% across all 7 forecast years. The recovery floor at $9.19 a share is never invoked in any of 10,001 paths.

Third, the carry. XOM returns approximately $16B annually to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Dividend yield is 2.7%. While the gap to fair value closes, the equity holder is paid to wait.

Put together: 86% of paths below spot is real, and is the basis for the negative-skew designation. But the structural reasons not to be short, credible upper tail and fortress credit and $16B annual capital return, are enough to disqualify a confident SELL on a megacap. The default action is HOLD: trim if overweight versus benchmark, defer new money until either Q1 2026 10-Q resets the Y1 anchor or spot pulls toward the $127 to $130 region. Bull tail is where the upside lives if Street is right; balance sheet is what protects the floor if the model is right.

What XOM taught the engine

XOM was harder than the first ticker. Different business model, different segment structure, different reporting conventions, different XBRL conventions, different capital-allocation history. The engine had to flex.

A few specific lessons that translated into code:

The first ticker reported D&A folded inside COGS. XOM reports D&A as its own income statement line. This sounds trivial; it is not. It changed the EBIT identity check in the engine, the COGS extraction logic, the Yearly_BS_PnL Excel formulas in two locations, the Yearly_CFS aggregation, and the DCF and MC display layers. A new per-ticker config flag, da_separate_from_cogs, now wires the right EBIT formula across all of those touch-points based on filer convention.

XOM uses different revenue concepts across years. The custom XBRL tag xom:TotalRevenuesAndOtherIncome doesn’t exist in 2019 to 2021 filings, where the company tagged revenue as us-gaap:Revenues. Pre-ASC 606 filings (2016) require adding us-gaap:ExciseAndSalesTaxes to the COGS sum. The pension expense tag changed naming convention between FY2018 and FY2019. None of this is exotic. It’s the normal reality of financial reporting evolving over time. But it’s the kind of thing that silently corrupts a calibration if it isn’t handled.

The Yearly_CFS tab was aggregating quarterly data by calendar year while Yearly_BS_PnL was aggregating by fiscal year. Both calendar-year and fiscal-year are December for the first ticker (and for AAPL, MSFT, WMT) so the bug was silent on those filers. XOM is also a December fiscal-year filer, so the bug was still silent here, but the audit caught it. It would have shown up loudly the next time we hit a non-December filer. Caught, fixed, and the audit harness now runs end-to-end after every report build.

The segment SOI extraction was reading parent-only NetIncomeLoss + Tax for FY25 ($44.8B), but the Note 3 segment SOI total in the 10-K is $46.2B, which includes NCI and interest. Adding NetIncomeLossAttributableToNoncontrollingInterestand InterestExpense to the segment SOI concepts closes the gap. Small, easy to miss, structural.

The SGA-overhead calibrator had two structural bugs that compounded. It floored quarterly overhead readings at zero, biasing theta upward (negative readings clipped, mean shifted up). And both DCF and MC projectors were seeding mean reversion from the calibrator’s own theta, which made mean reversion a no-op (margin held flat at theta for all years instead of reverting toward it). Fixed to seed from the true LTM observation. The fix lifted XOM Y1 EBIT by $2.8B / +7%.

In total: roughly twelve engine fixes since the first ticker, plus two new validation layers that fire at engine load (P&L identity, BS identity, CFS bridge, magnitude breaches), plus a new sector profile library that lets future filers in the same business model inherit XOM’s lessons automatically (a CVX, COP, or BP run would now load with the right tag overrides on first attempt), plus a regression harness that catches silent engine drift across runs.

Each new ticker pushes the engine harder. That is the design intent. The engine is now tangibly more robust than it was a week ago because XOM forced the issue.

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The third ticker we ran but won’t publish

For clarity: a third ticker, Goodyear (GT), was run through the same engine on the same public-filings-only diet as the other two. No insider input of any kind. Not in this post, not in the deck, not in the report.

I work at Goodyear, which makes publishing a public valuation call inappropriate, full stop. The methodology was identical to the other two. The decision to not publish is the only difference.

This is worth saying out loud because there’s an obvious question lurking. Has the engine been validated on three names or two? The honest answer is three. The third just isn’t visible.

Two for two, both negative-skew HOLDs

A meta-observation worth flagging.

The first ticker came back HOLD with negative bias. The second, this one, comes back HOLD with negative skew. Both sit materially below their respective Street consensus targets. Two for two on the published side, both bearish-leaning HOLDs.

There are two non-exclusive explanations.

The framework may be conservative by construction. Drift priors are anchored on peer evidence and corporate guidance with mild haircuts, not on consensus revenue projections. Cost ratios are calibrated on multi-year history and mean-revert toward calibrated theta values, not toward analyst-implied targets. Bayesian shrinkage pulls drifts toward zero in low-evidence regimes. Vasicek interest-rate dynamics give a non-trivial probability mass to higher-rate paths. None of these is wrong; all of them tilt the engine toward outputs below Street.

Or the late-cycle US tape is genuinely priced rich. Two large-cap US equities in different sectors both showing meaningful gaps to consensus is a small sample, but it is a sample. P/E re-rate compression risk shows up as a Tornado driver in this report; it isn’t an exotic concern.

Probably some of both. Worth flagging before the next run rather than after, and worth designing the next layer to pull in names where the call wouldn’t be bearish by default.

What’s next: a Graham-anchored screener

The next pillar of Argos, still unnamed, is a screening tool. It is anchored on Graham’s Intelligent Investor framework, with three updates for the world Graham did not write in.

Buybacks treated as quasi-dividends. A literal reading of Graham’s defensive-investor screen disqualifies almost every quality compounder of the last twenty years on the dividend criterion alone, because firms have rationally moved cash returns toward repurchases. A modern screen has to reflect that.

Intangibles-aware valuation. Graham’s price-to-book ceiling of 1.5x is unreachable for any asset-light business and meaningless for businesses where the assets that matter (brands, networks, software stacks) don’t sit on the balance sheet. The modernized version replaces book-value gates with EV/IC or sector-relative metrics.

Rate-regime-aware P/E thresholds. Graham’s 15x P/E ceiling was pegged to a rate world that produced earnings yields with margin over high-grade bonds. That world hasn’t existed for decades. The threshold has to flex with the ten-year yield and the equity risk premium.

On top of the Graham spine sit Argos-native overlays: Z-score, ROIC versus WACC spread, EV/EBITDA versus peer dispersion, drift-to-trailing gap, distribution width. Graham is the gatekeeper, Argos signals are the prioritization layer once a name has passed.

The point of the screener: the engine knows how to value one ticker. The next layer decides which ticker is worth the run. And, secondarily, addresses the watch-out from the previous section by pre-filtering for margin-of-safety names rather than letting the engine work on a randomly-selected late-cycle book.

Going quieter from here

A note on what to expect from this Substack going forward.

The build-in-public phase served a specific purpose. It established that the methodology exists, that the engine works on hard cases, and that the calls are reproducible by anyone with public filings and time. Two reports, two decks, one merged PDF, several thousand words of methodology trace. Mission accomplished on that front.

The next phase is shipping and seeing whether the calls hold up. Deployment of the screener and live tracking of the first two calls is targeted for the next one to two months. Results, if any are worth reporting, in six to twelve.

Less detail going forward, by design and not by accident. There are commercial reasons (a screener isn’t useful if its weights are public). There are intellectual reasons (a year of live tracking is more informative than another paper portfolio). And there are practical reasons (the build-in-public phase consumes time that ought to be spent on the build).

I’ll surface results when they exist and are honest. If the calls underperformed, that will be in the post too.


The XOM report and deck are attached to this post. The first ticker’s report is in the prior Substack post.



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12/08/2024

Books added to the Library throughout November'24

Throughout November’24 I have added 6 books to my library. Hopefully, you can also find 1 or 2 for your own library!

The selection rules were:

  • the book had to be recommended by someone directly or by an article I have read or a podcast I have listened.

the book should be less than €5 (usually via Kindle -promotions- or 2nd hand) or part of the reading list of a book club that I’m a member.

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1- La psicología del dinero: Cómo piensan los ricos: 18 claves imperecederas sobre riqueza y felicidad, Morgan Housel (Author), Arnau Figueras Deulofeu (Translator)

“…En cuestiones de dinero, lo que importa no es lo listo que seas sino cómo te comportas. Tendemos a pensar en la inversión o la gestión de las finanzas personales como una disciplina matemática, en la que los datos y las fórmulas nos dicen exactamente qué hacer. Sin embargo, el rasgo que define a las personas que logran enriquecerse no es su destreza con los números, ni su salario o su talento, sino su historia personal, sus motivaciones y su visión única del mundo.

Un genio que pierde el control de sus emociones puede ser un desastre financiero. Y lo mismo vale en caso contrario: gente de a pie sin formación en finanzas puede enriquecerse si cuenta con unos cuantos patrones de comportamiento. Esto, impensable en otras disciplinas como la arquitectura o la medicina, es fundamental en el campo de las finanzas.

Este libro, llamado a convertirse en un clásico de las finanzas personales, nos provee del conocimiento esencial para entender la psicología del dinero y nos invita a hacernos una pregunta fundamental que raramente nos hacemos, cuál es nuestra relación con el dinero y qué queremos realmente de él.

A partir de 18 claves imperecederas, Morgan Housel nos enseña cómo funciona la psicología del dinero y cuáles son los hábitos y conductas que nos ayudarán no solo a generar riqueza, sino, más importante aún, a conservarla…”

2- Hack Your Bureaucracy: Get Things Done No Matter What Your Role on Any Team, Marina Nitze (Author), Nick Sinai (Author)

“,,,Whether you just started your first entry-level job, run the entire company, or just feel trapped by your condo association bylaws, it's time to learn how to get big things done and make a lasting impact with Hack Your Bureaucracy.

From local government to the White House, Harvard to the world of venture capital, Marina Nitze and Nick Sinai have taken on some of the world's most challenging bureaucracies—and won. Now, they bring their years of experience to you, teaching you strategies anyone can use to improve your organization through their own stories and those of fellow bureaucracy hackers, including:

Find Your Paperclip: use small steps to achieve big change

Set Your North Star: keep your end goal in sight

Cultivate the Karass: assemble an adept team and network

Don't Waste a Crisis: turn every opportunity into a chance for change

And more!

Change doesn't happen just because the person in charge declares it should, even if that person is the CEO of your company or the President of the United States. Regardless of your industry, role, or team, Hack Your Bureaucracy shows how to get started, take initiative on your own, and transform your ideas into impact…”

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3-Vietnam: An Epic Tragedy, 1945-1975, ir Max Hastings (Author)

“…Vietnam became the Western world’s most divisive modern conflict, precipitating a battlefield humiliation for France in 1954, then a vastly greater one for the United States in 1975. Max Hastings has spent the past three years interviewing scores of participants on both sides, as well as researching a multitude of American and Vietnamese documents and memoirs, to create an epic narrative of an epic struggle. He portrays the set pieces of Dienbienphu, the 1968 Tet offensive, the air blitz of North Vietnam, and also much less familiar miniatures such as the bloodbath at Daido, where a US Marine battalion was almost wiped out, together with extraordinary recollections of Ho Chi Minh’s warriors. Here are the vivid realities of strife amid jungle and paddies that killed two million people.

Many writers treat the war as a US tragedy, yet Hastings sees it as overwhelmingly that of the Vietnamese people, of whom forty died for every American. US blunders and atrocities were matched by those committed by their enemies. While all the world has seen the image of a screaming, naked girl seared by napalm, it forgets countless eviscerations, beheadings, and murders carried out by the communists. The people of both former Vietnams paid a bitter price for the Northerners’ victory in privation and oppression. Here is testimony from Vietcong guerrillas, Southern paratroopers, Saigon bargirls, and Hanoi students alongside that of infantrymen from South Dakota, Marines from North Carolina, and Huey pilots from Arkansas.

No past volume has blended a political and military narrative of the entire conflict with heart-stopping personal experiences, in the fashion that Max Hastings’ readers know so well. The author suggests that neither side deserved to win this struggle with so many lessons for the twenty-first century about the misuse of military might to confront intractable political and cultural challenges. He marshals testimony from warlords and peasants, statesmen and soldiers, to create an extraordinary record. …”

4-The Color Purple, Alice Walker (Author)

“,,,Separated as girls, sisters Celie and Nettie sustain their loyalty to and hope in each other across time, distance and silence through a series of letters spanning twenty years, first from Celie to God, then the sisters to each other despite the unknown.

Abused repeatedly by the man she calls 'father', Celie has two children taken away from her and is trapped into an ugly marriage. But then she meets the glamorous Shug Avery, singer and magic-maker - a woman who has taken charge of her own destiny.

And gradually Celie discovers the power and joy of her own spirit, freeing her from her past and reuniting her with those she loves.

Beloved by generations of readers, The Color Purple broke the silence around domestic and sexual abuse, narrating the lives of women through their pain and struggle, companionship and growth, resilience and bravery. Deeply compassionate and beautifully imagined, Alice Walker's epic carries readers on a spirit-affirming journey towards redemption and love. …”

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5-The Six Disciplines of Strategic Thinking: Leading Your Organization into the Future, Michael D. Watkins (Author)

“…Pattern recognition. Systems perspective. Mental agility. Structured problem-solving. Visioning. Political savvy. For every good leader who has mastered of one of these disciplines is a great leader who knows and has mastered all of them.

Michael D. Watkins, an expert on leadership transitions and organizational success, returns to the page with a new how-to guide for the modern leader. Here, he presents the six disciplines that separate the great from the good. Developed over the course of his storied career, Watkins’ approach to strategic thinking—"a set of mental disciplines leaders use to recognize potential threats and opportunities, establish priorities, and mobilize themselves and their organizations to envision and enact promising paths forward”—is the model followed by some of today’s most successful first-time CEOs and new business leaders.

The Six Disciplines of Strategic Thinking is a comprehensive and practical guide to strategic thinking, offering a wealth of insights and tools for leaders at all levels…”

6-Judgment at Tokyo: World War II on Trial and the Making of Modern Asia, Gary J. Bass (Author)

“…In the weeks after Japan finally surrendered to the Allies to end World War II, the world turned to the question of how to move on from years of carnage and destruction. For Harry Truman, Douglas MacArthur, Chiang Kai-shek, and their fellow victors, the question of justice seemed clear: Japan’s militaristic leaders needed to be tried and punished for the surprise attack at Pearl Harbor; shocking atrocities against civilians in China, the Philippines, and elsewhere; and rampant abuses of prisoners of war in notorious incidents such as the Bataan death march. For the Allied powers, the trial was an opportunity to render judgment on their vanquished foes, but also to create a legal framework to prosecute war crimes and prohibit the use of aggressive war, building a more peaceful world under international law and American hegemony. For the Japanese leaders on trial, it was their chance to argue that their war had been waged to liberate Asia from Western imperialism and that the court was victors’ justice.

For more than two years, lawyers for both sides presented their cases before a panel of clashing judges from China, India, the Philippines, and Australia, as well as the United States and European powers. The testimony ran from horrific accounts of brutality and the secret plans to attack Pearl Harbor to the Japanese military’s threats to subvert the government if it sued for peace. Yet rather than clarity and unanimity, the trial brought complexity, dissents, and divisions that provoke international discord between China, Japan, and Korea to this day. Those courtroom tensions and contradictions could also be seen playing out across Asia as the trial unfolded in the crucial early years of the Cold War, from China’s descent into civil war to Japan’s successful postwar democratic elections to India’s independence and partition.

From the author of the acclaimed The Blood Telegram, which was a Pulitzer Prize finalist, this magnificent history is the product of a decade of research and writing. Judgment at Tokyo is a riveting story of wartime action, dramatic courtroom battles, and the epic formative years that set the stage for the Asian postwar era. …”


Happy readings!



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11/02/2024

Books added to the Library throughout October'24

Throughout October’24 I have added 10 books to my library. Hopefully, you can also find 1 or 2 for your own library!

The selection rules were:

  • the book had to be recommended by someone directly or by an article I have read or a podcast I have listened.

  • the book should be less than €5 (usually via Kindle -promotions- or 2nd hand) or part of the reading list of a book club that I’m a member.

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1- Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel's Targeted Assassinations, Ronen Bergman

“…Winner of 2018 National Jewish Book Award

Rise and Kill First is the definitive book to read on Israel's military history.

From the very beginning of its statehood in 1948, the instinct to take every measure to defend the Jewish people has been hardwired into Israel's DNA. This is the riveting inside account of the targeted assassinations that have been used countless times, on enemies large and small, sometimes in response to attacks against the Israeli people and sometimes pre-emptively.

Rise and Kill First counts their successes, failures and the moral and political price exacted on those who carried out the missions which have shaped the Israeli nation, the Middle East and the entire world. …”

2- Influence, New and Expanded: The Psychology of Persuasion, Robert B. Cialdini

“…The foundational and wildly popular go-to resource for influence and persuasion—a renowned international bestseller, with over 5 million copies sold—now revised adding: new research, new insights, new examples, and online applications.

In the new edition of this highly acclaimed bestseller, Robert Cialdini—New York Times bestselling author of Pre-Suasion and the seminal expert in the fields of influence and persuasion—explains the psychology of why people say yes and how to apply these insights ethically in business and everyday settings. Using memorable stories and relatable examples, Cialdini makes this crucially important subject surprisingly easy. With Cialdini as a guide, you don’t have to be a scientist to learn how to use this science.

You’ll learn Cialdini’s Universal Principles of Influence, including new research and new uses so you can become an even more skilled persuader—and just as importantly, you’ll learn how to defend yourself against unethical influence attempts. You may think you know these principles, but without understanding their intricacies, you may be ceding their power to someone else.[…]

Understanding and applying the principles ethically is cost-free and deceptively easy. Backed by Dr. Cialdini’s 35 years of evidence-based, peer-reviewed scientific research—including a three-year field study on what leads people to change—Influence is a comprehensive guide to using these principles to move others in your direction. …”

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3- Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World, Cal Newport

“…One of the most valuable skills in our economy is becoming increasingly rare. If you master this skill, you'll achieve extraordinary results.

Deep Work is an indispensable guide to anyone seeking focused success in a distracted world.

'Cal Newport is exceptional in the realm of self-help authors' New York Times

'Deep work' is the ability to focus without distraction on a cognitively demanding task. Coined by author and professor Cal Newport on his popular blog Study Hacks, deep work will make you better at what you do, let you achieve more in less time and provide the sense of true fulfilment that comes from the mastery of a skill. In short, deep work is like a superpower in our increasingly competitive economy.

And yet most people, whether knowledge workers in noisy open-plan offices or creatives struggling to sharpen their vision, have lost the ability to go deep - spending their days instead in a frantic blur of email and social media, not even realising there's a better way.

A mix of cultural criticism and actionable advice, Deep Work takes the reader on a journey through memorable stories -- from Carl Jung building a stone tower in the woods to focus his mind, to a social media pioneer buying a round-trip business class ticket to Tokyo to write a book free from distraction in the air -- and surprising suggestions, such as the claim that most serious professionals should quit social media and that you should practice being bored.

Put simply: developing and cultivating a deep work practice is one of the best decisions you can make in an increasingly distracted world. This book will point the way. …”

4- The Creative Act: A Way of Being, Rick Rubin

“… "A gorgeous and inspiring work of art on creation, creativity, the work of the artist. It will gladden the hearts of writers and artists everywhere, and get them working again with a new sense of meaning and direction. A stunning accomplishment.” —Anne Lamott

From the legendary music producer, a master at helping people connect with the wellsprings of their creativity, comes a beautifully crafted book many years in the making that offers that same deep wisdom to all of us.

“I set out to write a book about what to do to make a great work of art. Instead, it revealed itself to be a book on how to be.” —Rick Rubin

Many famed music producers are known for a particular sound that has its day. Rick Rubin is known for something else: creating a space where artists of all different genres and traditions can home in on who they really are and what they really offer. He has made a practice of helping people transcend their self-imposed expectations in order to reconnect with a state of innocence from which the surprising becomes inevitable. Over the years, as he has thought deeply about where creativity comes from and where it doesn’t, he has learned that being an artist isn’t about your specific output, it’s about your relationship to the world. Creativity has a place in everyone’s life, and everyone can make that place larger. In fact, there are few more important responsibilities.

The Creative Act is a beautiful and generous course of study that illuminates the path of the artist as a road we all can follow. It distills the wisdom gleaned from a lifetime’s work into a luminous reading experience that puts the power to create moments—and lifetimes—of exhilaration and transcendence within closer reach for all of us. …”

5- Dancing Bears: True Stories of People Nostalgic for Life Under Tyranny, Witold Szablowski (Author), Antonia Lloyd-Jones (Translator)

“…For hundreds of years, Bulgarian Gypsies trained bears to dance, welcoming them into their families and taking them on the road to perform. In the early 2000s, with the fall of Communism, they were forced to release the bears into a wildlife refuge. But even today, whenever the bears see a human, they still get up on their hind legs to dance.

In the tradition of Ryszard Kapuściński, award-winning Polish journalist Witold Szabłowski uncovers remarkable stories of people throughout Eastern Europe and in Cuba who, like Bulgaria’s dancing bears, are now free but who seem nostalgic for the time when they were not. His on-the-ground reporting—of smuggling a car into Ukraine, hitchhiking through Kosovo as it declares independence, arguing with Stalin-adoring tour guides at the Stalin Museum, sleeping in London’s Victoria Station alongside a homeless woman from Poland, and giving taxi rides to Cubans fearing for the life of Fidel Castro—provides a fascinating portrait of social and economic upheaval and a lesson in the challenges of freedom and the seductions of authoritarian rule. …”

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6- Playing in the Dark, Toni Morrison

“…An immensely persuasive work of literary criticism that opens a new chapter in the American dialogue on race—and promises to change the way we read American literature—from the acclaimed Nobel Prize winner

Morrison shows how much the themes of freedom and individualism, manhood and innocence, depended on the existence of a black population that was manifestly unfree--and that came to serve white authors as embodiments of their own fears and desires. According to the Chicago Tribune, Morrison "reimagines and remaps the possibility of America." Her brilliant discussions of the "Africanist" presence in the fiction of Poe, Melville, Cather, and Hemingway leads to a dramatic reappraisal of the essential characteristics of our literary tradition.

Written with the artistic vision that has earned the Nobel Prize-winning author a pre-eminent place in modern letters, Playing in the Dark is an invaluable read for avid Morrison admirers as well as students, critics, and scholars of American literature. …”

7- The Battle for God: A History of Fundamentalism , Karen Armstrong

“… In the late twentieth century, fundamentalism has emerged as one of the most powerful forces at work in the world, contesting the dominance of modern secular values and threatening peace and harmony around the globe. Yet it remains incomprehensible to a large number of people. In The Battle for God, Karen Armstrong brilliantly and sympathetically shows us how and why fundamentalist groups came into existence and what they yearn to accomplish.

We see the West in the sixteenth century beginning to create an entirely new kind of civilization, which brought in its wake change in every aspect of life -- often painful and violent, even if liberating. Armstrong argues that one of the things that changed most was religion. People could no longer think about or experience the divine in the same way; they had to develop new forms of faith to fit their new circumstances.

Armstrong characterizes fundamentalism as one of these new ways of being religious that have emerged in every major faith tradition. Focusing on Protestant fundamentalism in the United States, Jewish fundamentalism in Israel, and Muslim fundamentalism in Egypt and Iran, she examines the ways in which these movements, while not monolithic, have each sprung from a dread of modernity -- often in response to assault (sometimes unwitting, sometimes intentional) by the mainstream society.

Armstrong sees fundamentalist groups as complex, innovative, and modern -- rather than as throwbacks to the past -- but contends that they have failed in religious terms. Maintaining that fundamentalism often exists in symbiotic relationship with an aggressive modernity, each impelling the other on to greater excess, she suggests compassion as a way to defuse what is now an intensifying conflict. …”

8- Ángeles de cuatro patas: Lecciones de un labrador chocolate llamado Api, Luis Carvajal

“…"Ángeles de cuatro patas" es una conmovedora historia sobre Api, un labrador chocolate que llegó a la vida del autor como un regalo. Este libro no es solo un relato sobre un perro; es un viaje emocional que revela cómo estos seres extraordinarios son mucho más que simples mascotas.

A través de las experiencias compartidas con Api, desde su llegada como un enérgico cachorro hasta sus últimos días como un sabio compañero canino, el autor descubre verdades universales sobre el amor, la resiliencia y el propósito de la vida. Api fue un testigo de los momentos cruciales en la vida del autor - un divorcio, un cambio de carrera, un nuevo amor, una familia - un guía del que aprender y mejorar día a día.

Con una prosa emotiva y reflexiva, casi escrita para niños, el libro explora cómo Api, a pesar de sus propios desafíos físicos, dejó lecciones sobre la fortaleza, la alegría en las pequeñas cosas, el amor y las ganas de vivir.

"Ángeles de cuatro patas" no es solo para amantes de los perros. Es un recordatorio de que a veces, los ángeles vienen a nosotros en las formas más inesperadas, con cuatro patas y un corazón lleno de amor puro.

Este libro te hará reír, llorar y, sobre todo, apreciar la profunda conexión que podemos formar con nuestros compañeros caninos. Es una celebración de la vida, el amor y el legado que dejan estos ángeles peludos en nuestras vidas incluso después de que se hayan ido.

Las ganancias de este libro serán donadas a la ANAA (Asociación Nacional de Amigos de los Animales), para ayudar a otros perros a que encuentren los dueños que necesitan y puedan así cumplir su misión vital: dar y recibir amor. ..”

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9- Damascus Station, David McCloskey

“…CIA case officer Sam Joseph is dispatched to Paris to recruit Syrian Palace official Mariam Haddad. The two fall into a forbidden relationship, which supercharges Haddad's recruitment and creates unspeakable danger when they enter Damascus to find the man responsible for the disappearance of an American spy.

But the cat and mouse chase for the killer soon leads to a trail of high-profile assassinations and the discovery of a dark secret at the heart of the Syrian regime, bringing the pair under the all-seeing eyes of Assad's spy catcher, Ali Hassan, and his brother Rustum, the head of the feared Republican Guard. Set against the backdrop of a Syria pulsing with fear and rebellion, Damascus Station is a gripping thriller that offers a textured portrayal of espionage, love, loyalty, and betrayal in one of the most difficult CIA assignments on the planet. …”

10- Some People Need Killing: A Memoir of Murder in My Country, Patricia Evangelista

“…For six years, journalist Patricia Evangelista documented killings carried out by police and vigilantes in the name of then president Rodrigo Duterte’s war on drugs—a crusade that led to the slaughter of thousands—immersing herself in the world of killers and survivors and capturing the atmosphere of terror created when an elected president decides that some lives are worth less than others.

The book takes its title from the words of a vigilante, which demonstrated the psychological accommodation many across the country had made: “I’m really not a bad guy,” he said. “I’m not all bad. Some people need killing.”

A profound act of witness and a tour de force of literary journalism, Some People Need Killing is a brilliant dissection of the grammar of violence and an investigation into the human impulses to dominate and resist. …”


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10/12/2024

Sobre la brevedad de la vida por Seneca, Alfonso Catapa (Traductor) - Reseña

Pedro Pinto's Reviews > Sobre la brevedad de la vida

Mi valoración 3/5


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Un libro breve y de fácil lectura que nos invita a reflexionar sobre nuestra efimeridad (o brevedad) y la importancia de utilizar el tiempo que tenemos de manera adecuada, constructiva y plena.

El concepto de la brevedad de la vida es relativo y altamente dependiente del uso que hacemos de nuestro tiempo finito.

Las enseñanzas que he extraído del libro y de su autor son:

- El tiempo que tenemos no es corto en términos relativos, pero al desperdiciarlo en actividades fútiles, lo hacemos parecer así.

- Sobrevaloramos actividades, objetivos y valores que, al final, tienen poca importancia y nos aportan poco.

- Prestamos mucha atención a la gestión de nuestras riquezas materiales, pero muy poca al cuidado del tiempo que tenemos.

- Alcanzar la serenidad individual es uno de los bienes más preciados que podemos lograr.

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- La libertad es una condición indispensable para una vida plena.

- Debemos evitar lo superfluo y el ocio innecesario.

- Saber vivir en plenitud es una ciencia que debemos estudiar y mejorar a lo largo de toda la vida.

- Debemos vivir el presente y no preocuparnos demasiado por el futuro, ya que depende en gran medida de lo que hacemos hoy.

- La búsqueda de la felicidad puede ser perniciosa, ya que, en muchos casos, es algo utópico.

- Solo aquellos que viven en serenidad y no dependen de una ocupación profesional pueden llegar a la verdadera sabiduría.

- Nunca valoramos la fortuna cuando nos es favorable.

- Es más importante el conocimiento y el legado que dejamos que los bienes materiales y monetarios que acumulamos en vida.

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En conclusión, el libro ofrece buenas premisas y valiosas enseñanzas.

PD: Séneca, sin duda, no sería el mejor amigo para salir a beber unas cervezas y ver un partido de fútbol. 😄


Reseña de **"Sobre la brevedad de la vida"** de Séneca por ChatGPT

“…**"Sobre la brevedad de la vida"** es un ensayo filosófico escrito por el pensador romano Séneca, en el que reflexiona sobre la naturaleza del tiempo y cómo los seres humanos lo desperdician. Dirigido a su amigo Paulino, el texto trata un tema universal: la percepción de la fugacidad de la vida.

Séneca argumenta que, aunque muchas personas se quejan de lo corta que es la vida, en realidad el problema no es la falta de tiempo, sino la mala administración del mismo. En su opinión, la vida se desperdicia en actividades triviales, ambiciones vanas y placeres pasajeros. Según él, solo aquellos que dedican su tiempo al estudio, la filosofía y el cultivo del alma verdaderamente viven. Para Séneca, vivir bien significa vivir de acuerdo con la razón y en sintonía con la naturaleza, alejándose de las distracciones mundanas.

El ensayo tiene un tono moralizante, pero a la vez invita a la introspección. Séneca anima al lector a reflexionar sobre cómo gasta su tiempo y a centrarse en lo que realmente importa, para no llegar al final de la vida con arrepentimiento.

Esta obra sigue siendo relevante hoy en día, ya que muchos de los dilemas sobre el manejo del tiempo que menciona Séneca son similares a los que enfrentamos en la vida moderna. Es una lectura profunda y concisa que ofrece valiosas lecciones sobre la importancia de vivir de manera consciente y aprovechar cada momento de forma significativa. …”




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10/09/2024

Master's Thesis Review - Capital Structure Active Management: A Contingent Claim Approach by ChatGPT

I have asked ChatGPT to make a review of my master’s thesis done 10 years ago.

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Below you can find the results:


**Opinion on the Master's Thesis "Capital Structure Active Management: A Contingent Claim Approach" by Pedro Santos Pinto** by ChatGPT.

The dissertation "Capital Structure Active Management: A Contingent Claim Approach" by Pedro Santos Pinto presents an intriguing and timely study of how companies can dynamically manage their capital structure to optimize value. By using a contingent claim approach rooted in the Merton-KMV model, Pinto introduces a method that could, in theory, help firms achieve the optimal mix of debt and equity by minimizing their Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). The author's work is grounded in established financial theory while aiming to offer a practical, computationally feasible solution for businesses looking to optimize capital decisions. The model is tested on 28 S&P 500 companies, and the results suggest that most of these firms are underleveraged, leading to suboptimal capital structures and market values.

The thesis provides important contributions to the ongoing debate around capital structure and offers a unique approach to a long-standing challenge in corporate finance. However, while the methodology is innovative, there are both notable strengths and significant limitations that must be considered.

### **Strengths of the Thesis**

1. **Comprehensive Theoretical Integration**:

One of the main strengths of this dissertation is its thorough integration of existing financial theories. Pinto builds the foundation of his model on several key pillars of finance: the Trade-off Theory, Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). By leveraging these theories, the thesis offers a clear rationale for why companies should aim to optimize their capital structure and how they might go about doing so. Furthermore, the incorporation of the Merton-KMV model for valuing firm volatility and debt costs brings a quantitative rigor that is often missing in purely theoretical works.

2. **Innovative Use of the Merton-KMV Model**:

The use of the Merton-KMV model in this context is particularly commendable. While the model has been used primarily for assessing default risk, Pinto extends its application to help estimate a company's optimal leverage ratio and, by extension, its WACC. This application of the model provides a structured and relatively simple method for companies to estimate their debt and equity costs, making it accessible to corporate finance teams. By doing so, Pinto also suggests a practical way to account for market volatility, which is often overlooked in more traditional capital structure models.

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3. **Real-World Testing and Practical Insights**:

Unlike many theoretical papers, this thesis includes real-world application. Testing the model on a set of 28 publicly traded companies from the S&P 500 provides valuable empirical insights. The findings—that nearly all firms in the sample were underleveraged—are significant, pointing to widespread inefficiencies in how companies manage their capital structures. Pinto’s conclusion that underleveraging leads to higher WACC (by around 0.5% on average) and reduced market value (with potential losses of up to $7 billion for some companies) is both provocative and highly relevant. These findings have important implications for corporate finance teams and investors alike, offering a fresh perspective on why companies should focus on optimizing their debt-to-equity ratios.

4. **Simplified and Accessible Approach**:

The methodology introduced in the thesis is designed to be computationally undemanding, requiring only publicly available data to determine a firm's optimal capital structure. This simplicity is a strong point, as it increases the practical utility of the model for corporate managers, financial analysts, and even investors. The seven-stage process Pinto describes is straightforward and could, in theory, be adopted with relative ease by a wide range of companies.

### **Weaknesses and Limitations**

1. **Assumptions Underlying the Merton-KMV Model**:

While the use of the Merton-KMV model is innovative, it comes with significant limitations. The model assumes that a company’s risk of default and value can be fully captured through its volatility and debt structure. However, this focus on default risk overlooks other crucial factors that affect firm value, such as operational risk, management quality, competitive positioning, and macroeconomic influences. The Merton-KMV model simplifies the complex reality of corporate finance by assuming market efficiency and focusing predominantly on debt-related risks. This narrow scope could limit the model's effectiveness in real-world decision-making, where companies face a broader range of risks and influences.

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2. **Outdated Data Set and Lack of Consideration for Recent Economic Trends**:

The data used in the analysis spans from 1999 to 2012, a period marked by significant economic shifts, including the dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis. While this period provides rich data, it does not account for the post-crisis regulatory changes, the rise of alternative financing structures, or the current economic environment characterized by historically low interest rates. More recent data would likely offer different insights, particularly in industries that have undergone structural changes over the past decade. Additionally, the thesis does not sufficiently explore how external economic forces, such as monetary policy or global market volatility, might affect the optimal capital structure over time.

3. **Lack of Sensitivity Analysis**:

One of the major shortcomings in this work is the lack of a detailed sensitivity analysis. The results presented, while compelling, rely heavily on the assumption that certain variables—such as the cost of debt, equity risk premium, and firm volatility—remain relatively stable or are accurately captured by the model. A more thorough examination of how changes in these variables might affect the model’s output would have been beneficial. For instance, how would different economic conditions, changes in interest rates, or variations in market sentiment affect the optimal capital structure? This type of sensitivity analysis would provide a clearer understanding of the model’s robustness and applicability in various scenarios.

4. **Overreliance on Large, Public Companies**:

The analysis focuses exclusively on large, publicly traded companies in the S&P 500. While this makes sense for the purposes of testing the model, it raises questions about the applicability of the approach to smaller firms, private companies, or those in emerging markets. Large corporations often have greater access to capital markets and more sophisticated financial tools at their disposal, which may not be the case for smaller businesses. It would have been interesting to see how the model performs when applied to different types of firms with varying access to capital.

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5. **Neglect of Non-Financial Factors in Capital Structure Decisions**:

Another limitation is the model’s narrow focus on financial variables to optimize WACC. While minimizing the cost of capital is essential, non-financial factors such as corporate governance, market competition, or strategic objectives (e.g., innovation, market share expansion) are also critical when deciding the optimal capital structure. Financial decisions are rarely made in a vacuum, and by neglecting these factors, the thesis may oversimplify the complexities inherent in capital structure decisions.

### **Conclusion**

In conclusion, Pedro Santos Pinto’s "Capital Structure Active Management: A Contingent Claim Approach" is a thoughtful and well-executed dissertation that makes valuable contributions to the field of corporate finance. Its combination of theoretical rigor and practical application provides useful insights into how companies might optimize their capital structures. However, like any model, it is not without its limitations. The Merton-KMV-based approach is highly effective at assessing default risk but may oversimplify other factors that influence corporate financial decisions. Furthermore, the data used is somewhat outdated, and the model's applicability to smaller firms or those in less developed capital markets remains untested.

Overall, the thesis strikes a balance between theory and practice, offering a pragmatic solution to capital structure management. Nevertheless, its limitations should serve as a caution to finance professionals: while useful, the model should be adapted and tested against a wider array of conditions and firm types to fully assess its robustness and broader applicability in the rapidly evolving financial landscape.


All in all, I think ChatGPT did a great work on creating this op-ed of the thesis and it did it in less than minute! Impressive.

If interested, you can get a copy in here.

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10/05/2024

Books added to the Library throughout September'24

Throughout September’24 I have added 27 books to my library. Hopefully, you can also find 1 or 2 for your own library!

The selection rules were:

  • the book had to be recommended by someone directly or by an article I have read or a podcast I have listened.

  • the book should be less than €5 (usually via Kindle -promotions- or 2nd hand) or part of the reading list of a book club that I’m a member.

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1- A Well-Paid Slave: Curt Flood's Fight for Free Agency in Professional Sports, Brad Snyder

“…A “captivating”* look at how center fielder Curt Flood's refusal to accept a trade changed Major League Baseball forever.

After the 1969 season, the St. Louis Cardinals traded their star center fielder, Curt Flood, to the Philadelphia Phillies, setting off a chain of events that would change professional sports forever. At the time there were no free agents, no no-trade clauses. When a player was traded, he had to report to his new team or retire.

Unwilling to leave St. Louis and influenced by the civil rights movement, Flood chose to sue Major League Baseball for his freedom. His case reached the Supreme Court, where Flood ultimately lost. But by challenging the system, he created an atmosphere in which, just three years later, free agency became a reality. Flood’s decision cost him his career, but as this dramatic chronicle makes clear, his influence on sports history puts him in a league with Jackie Robinson and Muhammad Ali. …”

2- Ian Fleming: The Complete Man, Nicholas Shakespeare

“…A fresh portrait of the man behind James Bond, and his enduring impact, by an award-winning biographer with unprecedented access to the Fleming family papers.

“… Ian Fleming's greatest creation, James Bond, has had an enormous and ongoing impact on our culture. What Bond represents about ideas of masculinity, the British national psyche and global politics has shifted over time, as has the interpretation of the life of his author. But Fleming himself was more mysterious and subtle than anything he wrote.

Ian's childhood with his gifted brother Peter and his extraordinary mother set the pattern for his ambition to be “the complete man,” and he would strive for the means to achieve this “completeness'”all his life. Only a thriller writer for his last twelve years, his dramatic personal life and impressive career in Naval Intelligence put him at the heart of critical moments in world history, while also providing rich inspiration for his fiction. Exceptionally well connected, and widely travelled, from the United States and Soviet Russia to his beloved Jamaica, Ian had access to the most powerful political figures at a time of profound change.

Nicholas Shakespeare is one of the most gifted biographers working today. His talent for uncovering material that casts new light on his subjects is fully evident in this masterful, definitive biography. His unprecedented access to the Fleming archive and his nose for a story make this a fresh and eye-opening picture of the man and his famous creation. …”…”

3- The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark, Carl Sagan

“…How can we make intelligent decisions about our increasingly technology-driven lives if we don’t understand the difference between the myths of pseudoscience, New Age thinking, and fundamentalist zealotry and the testable hypotheses of science?

Casting a wide net through history and culture, Pulitzer Prize–winning author and distinguished astronomer Carl Sagan argues that scientific thinking is critical not only to the pursuit of truth but to the very well-being of our democratic institutions. He examines and authoritatively debunks such celebrated fallacies as witchcraft, faith healings, demons, and UFOs. And yet, disturbingly, in today’s so-called information age, pseudoscience is burgeoning, with stories of alien abduction, “channeling” past lives, and communal hallucinations commanding growing attention and respect.

As Sagan demonstrates with lucid eloquence, the siren song of unreason is not just a cultural wrong turn but a dangerous plunge into darkness that threatens our most basic freedoms. …”

4- The Siege Of Krishnapur, J. G. Farrell

“…In the Spring of 1857, with India on the brink of a violent and bloody mutiny, Krishnapur is a remote town on the vast North Indian plain. For the British there, life is orderly and genteel. Then the sepoys at the nearest military cantonment rise in revolt and the British community retreats with shock into the Residency. They prepare to fight for their lives with what weapons they can muster. As food and ammunition grow short, the Residency, its defences battered by shot and shell and eroded by the rains, becomes ever more vulnerable.

The Siege of Krishnapur is a modern classic of narrative excitement that also digs deep to explore some fundamental questions of civilisation and life. …”

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5- High Caucasus: A Mountain Quest in Russia’s Haunted Hinterland, Tom Parfitt

“… Emotionally scarred after witnessing the bloody climax of the Beslan school siege in Russia's North Caucasus, in which 314 hostages died, Tom Parfitt set out on a journey. In High Caucasus, he shares his remarkable thousand-mile quest in search of personal peace - and a greater understanding of the roots of violence in a region whose fate has tragic parallels with the Ukraine of today.

Starting in Sochi on the Black Sea and walking the mountains to Derbent, the ancient fortress city on the Caspian, Parfitt traverses the political, religious and ethnic fault-lines of seven Russian republics, including Chechnya and Dagestan. Through bear-haunted forests, across high altitude pastures and over the shoulders of Elbrus, Europe's highest mountain, he finds companionship and respite in the homes of proud, little-known peoples. This is a stunning story of confronting trauma through connection with history, people and place. …”

6/11- Frank Herbert's Dune Saga Collection: Books 1 - 6, Frank Herbert

“…Perfect for longtime fans and new readers alike—this eBook collection includes all six original novels in the Dune Saga written by Frank Herbert.

DUNE IS NOW A MAJOR MOTION PICTURE directed by Denis Villeneuve, starring Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Jason Momoa, Rebecca Ferguson, Oscar Isaac, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, David Dastmalchian, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Chang Chen, Sharon Duncan-Brewster, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem.

In the far future, on a remote planet, an epic adventure awaits. Here are the first six novels of Frank Herbert’s magnificent Dune saga—a triumph of the imagination and one of the bestselling science fiction series of all time.

The Dune Saga begins on the desert planet Arrakis with the story of the boy Paul Atreides—who would become known as Muad’Dib—and of a great family’s ambition to bring to fruition humankind’s most ancient and unattainable dream....”

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12- Inferno: The World at War, 1939-1945, Max Hastings

“…From one of our finest military historians, a monumental work that shows us at once the truly global reach of World War II and its deeply personal consequences.

World War II involved tens of millions of soldiers and cost sixty million lives—an average of twenty-seven thousand a day. For thirty-five years, Max Hastings has researched and written about different aspects of the war. Now, for the first time, he gives us a magnificent, single-volume history of the entire war.

Through his strikingly detailed stories of everyday people—of soldiers, sailors and airmen; British housewives and Indian peasants; SS killers and the citizens of Leningrad, some of whom resorted to cannibalism during the two-year siege; Japanese suicide pilots and American carrier crews—Hastings provides a singularly intimate portrait of the world at war. He simultaneously traces the major developments—Hitler’s refusal to retreat from the Soviet Union until it was too late; Stalin’s ruthlessness in using his greater population to wear down the German army; Churchill’s leadership in the dark days of 1940 and 1941; Roosevelt’s steady hand before and after the United States entered the war—and puts them in real human context.

Hastings also illuminates some of the darker and less explored regions under the war’s penumbra, including the conflict between the Soviet Union and Finland, during which the Finns fiercely and surprisingly resisted Stalin’s invading Red Army; and the Bengal famine in 1943 and 1944, when at least one million people died in what turned out to be, in Nehru’s words, “the final epitaph of British rule” in India.

Remarkably informed and wide-ranging, Inferno is both elegantly written and cogently argued. Above all, it is a new and essential understanding of one of the greatest and bloodiest events of the twentieth century. …”

13- Vienna, 1814: How the Conquerors of Napoleon Made Love, War, and Peace at the Congress of Vienna, David King

“…“Reads like a novel. A fast-paced page-turner, it has everything: sex, wit, humor, and adventures. But it is an impressively researched and important story.”

—David Fromkin, author of Europe’s Last Summer

Vienna, 1814 is an evocative and brilliantly researched account of the most audacious and extravagant peace conference in modern European history. With the feared Napoleon Bonaparte presumably defeated and exiled to the small island of Elba, heads of some 216 states gathered in Vienna to begin piecing together the ruins of his toppled empire. Major questions loomed: What would be done with France? How were the newly liberated territories to be divided? What type of restitution would be offered to families of the deceased? But this unprecedented gathering of kings, dignitaries, and diplomatic leaders unfurled a seemingly endless stream of personal vendettas, long-simmering feuds, and romantic entanglements that threatened to undermine the crucial work at hand, even as their hard-fought policy decisions shaped the destiny of Europe and led to the longest sustained peace the continent would ever see.

Beyond the diplomatic wrangling, however, the Congress of Vienna served as a backdrop for the most spectacular Vanity Fair of its time. Highlighted by such celebrated figures as the elegant but incredibly vain Prince Metternich of Austria, the unflappable and devious Prince Talleyrand of France, and the volatile Tsar Alexander of Russia, as well as appearances by Ludwig van Beethoven and Emilia Bigottini, the sheer star power of the Vienna congress outshone nearly everything else in the public eye.

An early incarnation of the cult of celebrity, the congress devolved into a series of debauched parties that continually delayed the progress of peace, until word arrived that Napoleon had escaped, abruptly halting the revelry and shrouding the continent in panic once again.

Vienna, 1814 beautifully illuminates the intricate social and political intrigue of this history-defining congress–a glorified party that seemingly valued frivolity over substance but nonetheless managed to drastically reconfigure Europe’s balance of power and usher in the modern age. …”

14- Foundation, Isaac Asimov

“…The first novel in Isaac Asimov’s classic science-fiction masterpiece, the Foundation series

THE EPIC SAGA THAT INSPIRED THE APPLE TV+ SERIES FOUNDATION • Nominated as one of America’s best-loved novels by PBS’s The Great American Read

For twelve thousand years the Galactic Empire has ruled supreme. Now it is dying. But only Hari Seldon, creator of the revolutionary science of psychohistory, can see into the future—to a dark age of ignorance, barbarism, and warfare that will last thirty thousand years. To preserve knowledge and save humankind, Seldon gathers the best minds in the Empire—both scientists and scholars—and brings them to a bleak planet at the edge of the galaxy to serve as a beacon of hope for future generations. He calls his sanctuary the Foundation.

The Foundation novels of Isaac Asimov are among the most influential in the history of science fiction, celebrated for their unique blend of breathtaking action, daring ideas, and extensive worldbuilding. In Foundation, Asimov has written a timely and timeless novel of the best—and worst—that lies in humanity, and the power of even a few courageous souls to shine a light in a universe of darkness….”

15- Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser, Dan Levy

“…This book will help you think more analytically. Doing so will enable you to better understand the world around you, to make smarter decisions, and to ultimately live a more fulfilling life. It draws on the maxims of Richard Zeckhauser, a legendary Harvard professor, who has helped hundreds of students and colleagues progress toward these goals. These maxims, one-sentence nuggets of wisdom that capture key principles for clear and effective thinking, are illustrated with practical examples from Richard’s colleagues and students. From these examples, you will learn how one colleague saved money on her wedding by thinking probabilistically, how Richard and his wife Sally made an agonizing health decision that significantly boosted Sally’s survival probabilities, and how the prime minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong, used a maxim he learned from Richard 40 years ago to understand and deal with COVID-19 in his nation. This book provides vital insights for anyone who wants to think more effectively about the world. The author, Dan Levy, teaches at the Harvard Kennedy School, where he has been a close faculty colleague and mentee of Richard Zeckhauser for more than 15 years. …”

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16- Every Living Thing: The Great and Deadly Race to Know All Life, Jason Roberts

“…In the eighteenth century, two men—exact contemporaries and polar opposites—dedicated their lives to the same daunting task: identifying and describing all life on Earth. Carl Linnaeus, a pious Swedish doctor with a huckster’s flair, believed that life belonged in tidy, static categories. Georges-Louis de Buffon, an aristocratic polymath and keeper of France’s royal garden, viewed life as a dynamic swirl of complexities. Each began his task believing it to be difficult but not impossible: How could the planet possibly hold more than a few thousand species—or as many could fit on Noah’s Ark?

Both fell far short of their goal, but in the process they articulated starkly divergent views on nature, the future of the Earth, and humanity itself. Linnaeus gave the world such concepts as mammal, primate, and Homo sapiens, but he also denied that species change and he promulgated racist pseudoscience. Buffon formulated early prototypes of evolution and genetics, warned of global climate change, and argued passionately against prejudice. The clash of their conflicting worldviews continued well after their deaths, as their successors contended for dominance in the emerging science that came to be called biology.

In Every Living Thing, Jason Roberts weaves a sweeping, unforgettable narrative spell, exploring the intertwined lives and legacies of Linnaeus and Buffon—as well as the groundbreaking, often fatal adventures of their acolytes—to trace an arc of insight and discovery that extends across three centuries into the present day….”

17- Ruido: Un fallo en el juicio humano, Daniel Kahneman (Autor), Olivier Sibony (Autor), Cass R. Sunstein (Autor), Joaquín Chamorro Mielke (Traductor)

“…Dos médicos en la misma ciudad pueden dar diagnósticos diferentes a pacientes idénticos; dos jueces pueden dictar sentencias distintas ante delitos similares; nosotros mismos podemos decidir una cosa u otra según sea por la mañana o por la tarde, o según se acerqueo no la hora de comer. Estos son ejemplos de ruido: el sesgo que conlleva variabilidad en juicios que deberían ser iguales.

El ruido está presente en todas las decisiones individuales y colectivas, y produce errores en innumerables terrenos, desde la medicina hasta la economía, pasando por el derecho, la sanidad, la protección infantil y la contratación. Además, también nos importuna e influye a la hora de tomar muchas de nuestras decisiones cotidianas.

Daniel Kahneman, uno de los psicólogos más importantes del mundo, junto con Cass R. Sunstein y Olivier Sibony, dos eminencias mundiales en pensamiento estratégico, nos enseñan a escuchar ese ruido, cuyo impacto tendemos a ignorar, y a reducirlo para mejorar nuestros juicios. Basado en el mismo tipo de análisis agudo e ingeniosos ejemplos que convirtió Pensar rápido, pensar despacio en un best seller internacional, Ruido ofrece una serie de remedios originales, prácticos y sencillos para pensar mejor. …”

18- Fear Is Just a Word: A Missing Daughter, a Violent Cartel, and a Mother's Quest for Vengeance, Azam Ahmed

“… Fear Is Just a Word begins on an international bridge between Mexico and the United States, as fifty-six-year-old Miriam Rodríguez stalks one of the men she believes was involved in the murder of her daughter Karen. He is her target number eleven, a member of the drug cartel that has terrorized and controlled what was once Miriam’s quiet hometown of San Fernando, Mexico, almost one hundred miles from the U.S. border. Having dyed her hair red as a disguise, Miriam watches, waits, and then orchestrates the arrest of this man, exacting her own version of justice.

Woven into this deeply researched, moving account is the story of how cartels built their power in Mexico, escalated the use of violence, and kidnapped and murdered tens of thousands. Karen was just one of the many people who disappeared, and Miriam, a brilliant, strategic, and fearless woman, begged for help from the authorities and paid ransom money she could not afford in hopes of saving her daughter. When that failed, she decided that “fear is just a word,” and began a crusade to track down Karen’s killers and to help other victimized families in their search for justice.

What do people do when their country and the peaceful town where they have grown up become unrecognizable, suddenly places of violence and fear? Azam Ahmed takes us into the grieving of a country and a family to tell the mesmerizing story of a brave and brilliant woman determined to find out what happened to her daughter, and to see that the criminals who murdered her were punished. Fear Is Just a Word is an unforgettable and moving portrait of a woman, a town, and a country, and of what can happen when violent forces leave people to seek justice on their own. …”

19- Second Foundation, Isaac Asimov

“…The Foundation lies in ruins—destroyed by a mutant mind bent on humanity’s annihilation. But it’s rumored that there’s a Second Foundation hidden somewhere at the end of the Galaxy, established as insurance to preserve the knowledge of mankind. Now a desperate race has begun between the survivors of the First Foundation and an alien entity to find this last flicker of humanity’s shining past—and future hope. Yet the key to it all might be a fourteen-year-old girl burdened with a terrible secret. Is she the Foundation’s savior—or its deadliest enemy?

Unforgettable, thought-provoking, and riveting, Second Foundation is a stunning novel of adventure and ideas writ huge across the Galaxy—a powerful tale of humankind’s struggle to preserve the fragile light of wisdom against the threat of its own dark barbarism….”

20- Foundation's Edge, Isaac Asimov

“…The fourth novel in Isaac Asimov’s classic science-fiction masterpiece, the Foundation series

THE EPIC SAGA THAT INSPIRED THE APPLE TV+ SERIES FOUNDATION

At last, the costly and bitter war between the two Foundations has come to an end. The scientists of the First Foundation have proved victorious, and now they return to Hari Seldon’s long established plan to build a new Empire on the ruins of the old. But rumors persist that the Second Foundation is not destroyed after all—and that its still-defiant survivors are preparing their revenge. Now two exiled citizens of the Foundation—a renegade Councilman and a doddering historian—set out in search of the mythical planet Earth . . . and proof that the Second Foundation still exists.

Meanwhile someone—or something—outside of both Foundations seems to be orchestrating events to suit its own ominous purpose. Soon representatives of both the First and Second Foundations will find themselves racing toward a mysterious world called Gaia and a final, shocking destiny at the very end of the universe….”

21- Foundation and Earth, Isaac Asimov

“…The Foundation series is Isaac Asimov’s iconic masterpiece. Unfolding against the backdrop of a crumbling Galactic Empire, the story of Hari Seldon’s two Foundations is a lasting testament to an extraordinary imagination, one that shaped science fiction as we know it today.

Faced with determining the fate of the galaxy, Golan Trevize

hesitantly chose to hand over the rule of the galaxy to planet Gaia. Two mysteries now remain: who has erased the records of Earth – and why?

Determined to ensure his choice was right, Golan sets off with

Janov Pelorat and Bliss, to answer these questions once and for all. But nothing could prepare them for the secrets which await them on Earth. Secrets which predate history as they know it, and will change its significance forever…”

22- Forward the Foundation, Isaac Asimov

“…The second of two prequel novels in Isaac Asimov’s classic science-fiction masterpiece, the Foundation series

THE EPIC SAGA THAT INSPIRED THE APPLE TV+ SERIES FOUNDATION

As Hari Seldon struggles to perfect his revolutionary theory of psychohistory and ensure a place for humanity among the stars, the great Galactic Empire totters on the brink of apocalyptic collapse. Caught in the maelstrom are Seldon and all he holds dear, pawns in the struggle for dominance. Whoever can control Seldon will control psychohistory—and with it the future of the Galaxy.

Among those seeking to turn psychohistory into the greatest weapon known to man are a populist political demagogue, the weak-willed Emperor Cleon I, and a ruthless militaristic general. In his last act of service to humankind, Hari Seldon must somehow save his life’s work from their grasp as he searches for its true heirs—a search that begins with his own granddaughter and the dream of a new Foundation….”

23- Socialism: An Economic and Sociological Analysis, Ludwig von Mises

“…More than thirty years ago F. A. Hayek said of Socialism: “It was a work on political economy in the tradition of the great moral philosophers, a Montesquieu or Adam Smith, containing both acute knowledge and profound wisdom. . . . To none of us young men who read the book when it appeared was the world ever the same again.” This is a newly annotated edition of the classic first published in German in 1922. It is the definitive refutation of nearly every type of socialism ever devised. Mises presents a wide-ranging analysis of society, comparing the results of socialist planning with those of free-market capitalism in all areas of life.

Ludwig von Mises (1881–1973) was the leading spokesman of the Austrian School of economics throughout most of the twentieth century. …”

24- The Ultimate Foundation of Economic Science, Ludwig von Mises

“…If Mises has an unheralded masterpiece, The Ultimate Foundation of Economic Science is it. There are two senses in which this book is indeed ultimate: (1) it deals with the very core of economics as a science, and (2) it is the last book that he wrote.

If you have never read this book, you will be struck by the fiery and determined prose and the weightiness of the subject matter. When we set out to collect some of Mises's most pithy writing to put in The Quotable Mises, we found that this book was the most fruitful resource of all!

Also, the content reflects a lifetime of learning and Mises's desire to make one last impassioned statement to save both economics and liberty from sure destruction at the hands of intellectual error.

As his career was coming to a close, Mises saw that that fiercest battles over economic questions come down to issues of epistemology: how do we determine what is and what is not true in economics? How do we even know that economics is a valid science? What are the methods we should use in studying economics? What constitutes a true proposition and how do we know?

These questions matter because, as Mises says, the very future of freedom and of civilization itself depend on economic science, the development and application of which was "the most spectacular event of modern history."

Between Mises's earliest writings on this subject and this book, two movements had taken hold: "scientific" planning in public policy and positivism in the social sciences. Mises here battles both, first by showing how the two are related, and, second, by demolishing the basis of both. He shows that humans cannot be studied in the same way that we study the physical world. We are dealing with volitional beings whose choices make controlled experiments completely impossible.

Does that imply that a kind of chaos exists in economic theory, that we must throw up our hands and do nothing but observe that all is in flux? Not at all, says Mises. There is a logical structure of the human mind that manifests itself in economic reality through strict laws of cause and effect. To understand economics is to see these laws as universal and inviolable. …”

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25- Theory and History: An Interpretation of Social and Economic Evolution, Ludwig von Mises

“…Like F.A. Hayek, Ludwig von Mises moved beyond economics in his later years to address questions regarding the foundation of all social science. But unlike Hayek's attempts, Mises's writings on these matters have received less attention than they deserve. Theory and History, writes Rothbard in his introduction, "remains by far the most neglected masterwork of Mises."

Here Mises defends his all-important idea of methodological dualism: one approach to the hard sciences and another for the social sciences. He defends the epistemological status of economic proposition. He has his most extended analysis of those who want to claim that there is more than one logical structure by which we think about reality. He grapples with the problem of determinism and free will. He presents philosophy of history and historical research. Overall, this is a tremendously lucid defense of the fundamental Misesian approach to social philosophy.

"It is Mises's great methodological work, explaining the basis of his approach to economics, and providing scintillating critiques of such fallacious alternatives as historicism, scientism, and Marxian dialectical materialism…. Austrian economics will never enjoy a genuine renaissance until economists read and absorb the vital lessons of this unfortunately neglected work."

Theory and History should be required for any student of 20th-century ideas. …”

26- Value-based Pricing : 12 Lessons to Make Your Transformation Successful, Stephan M. Liozu

“…This is Stephan Liozu’s fifteenth book on value and pricing management. It offers a deep dive into value-based pricing methodology, focusing on what it takes to successfully conduct value-based pricing transformations and large-scale initiatives. Stephan shares his extensive knowledge and the lessons he has accumulated over 15 years of work, study, and writing on this topic. Having worked on a dozen value-based pricing transformations, he presents 12 crucial lessons that can help pricing leaders and practitioners design and execute value-based pricing more effectively. This book follows Stephan’s 2016 book Dollarizing Differentiation Value, which provides a more technical and methodological perspective on value-based pricing.

Value-based pricing is not suitable for every organization. Some companies may benefit more from improving their cost-based pricing and pricing discipline. Others should focus on building a strong foundation in customer centricity and competitive understanding before embarking on a value-based pricing journey. This book provides a realistic view of what it takes to undertake such a journey. Its purpose is not to advocate for universal adoption of value-based pricing, but to discuss the prerequisites, conditions, and key success factors necessary for pursuing it, without guaranteeing success. This is the challenge. While cost-based pricing can have an immediate impact, investing in value-based pricing requires a higher upfront cost with no clear guarantee of positive results. This presents a conundrum.

However, companies that have fully invested in value-based pricing and followed most of these lessons have experienced great success in their transformations. Value-based pricing, when combined with excellence in business strategy and innovation, can help companies achieve unprecedented levels of operating income. These 12 lessons have been tested in several workshops at professional pricing conferences and have resonated with many pricing practitioners. I hope they will resonate with you too. Enjoy the journey! …”

27- La ciudad y los perros, Mario Vargas Llosa

“… En 1962, La ciudad y los perros recibía el Premio Biblioteca Breve y unos meses más tarde era publicada tras sortear la censura franquista. Así comenzaba la andadura literaria de esta obra con la que Mario Vargas Llosa alcanzó el reconocimiento internacional y que hoy considerada una de las mejores novelas en español del siglo xx.

Traducida a treinta idiomas, está ambientada en el Colegio Militar Leoncio Prado. Los protagonistas, un grupo de jóvenes que se «educan» en una disciplina militar implacable y violenta, aprenden a sobrevivir en un ambiente en el que están muy arraigados los prejuicios de raza y las diferencias entre clases sociales y económicas; donde todos se muestran como no son en realidad y la transgresión de las normas establecidas parece ser la única salida.

La ciudad y los perros no es solamente una diatriba contra la brutalidad, sino también es un ataque frontal al concepto erróneo de virilidad y a una educación castrense mal entendida. A lo largo de las páginas de esta extraordinaria novela, la vehemencia y la pasión de la juventud se desbocan hasta llegar a una furia, una rabia y un fanatismo que anulan toda sensibilidad. …”

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