Have you already baked in, at least as a likely scenario, a >$100 barrel of oil for at least the first half of 2025? If not, why?

Have you factored in the likelihood of oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel for at least the first half of 2025? If not, why? In my opinion, it's not a question of if but when, as a strong retaliation from Israel to the Iranian attack seems almost inevitable. The timing is uncertain—perhaps only after the U.S. elections—but even that is speculative, given the potential unpredictable impact on the election outcome as events unfold. You can't say this would come as a surprise, given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which is on the verge of a significant and impactful development. Great article from The Economist on this topic, which I highly recommend. Could war in the Gulf push oil to $100 a barrel? https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/10/07/could-war-in-the-gulf-push-oil-to-100-a-barrel from The Economist

- Pedro

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