Based on the Economist model there a 2 in every 3 chances that Trump will win the US November’s election. Thus, have you at least embedded in your 2025 scenarios for the strong likelihood that this materializes? There are huge macro implications, just to name a few with direct impacts in Europe: increased protectionism and reduced free trade between US and all the other major players namely China and the spillovers for the other regions namely Europe, Conflict in Ukraine and Nato future, paramount for European stability, Increased incentives & protectionism to the chip industry. Dismantling of WTO and its institutions. Those are not minor impacts and are worthwhile at least to think about them by strategic teams and prepare your organization. https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/06/12/five-months-out-donald-trump-has-a-clear-lead
- Pedro
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