Sunday, June 23, 2024

Who's going to win the CopaAmerica'24

Predictive model for the CopaAmerica’24 by “El Pais”, that is updated every day. The favorites with no big surprise, as of-today are: Argentina - 37% Brasil -27% Uruguay -8% USA (?) - 8% https://english.elpais.com/sports/2024-06-21/who-is-going-to-win-the-copa-america-this-is-what-our-statistical-model-predicts.html?sma=lanewsletterdekikollaneras_2024.06.21_2&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=lanewsletterdekikollaneras_2024.06.21_2

- Pedro

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Saturday, June 22, 2024

Rosario de Velasco en el Thyssen hasta 14 de Septiembre, una artista a descobrir.

Rosario de Velasco en el Thyssen hasta 14 de Septiembre, una artista a descobrir. https://elpais.com/cultura/2024-06-18/rosario-de-velasco-la-pintora-olvidada-del-27-resucita-en-el-thyssen.html?sma=babelia_2024.06.22_2&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=babelia_2024.06.22_2

- Pedro

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Who's going to win the Euro'24

Predictive model for the Euro’24 by “El Pais”, that is updated every day. The favorites with no big surprise, as of-today are: France- 20% England (based on the latest performance strongly doubt it) -19% Germany -13% Portugal (based on the latest performance strongly doubt it) 12% Spain - 12 When we see football wise & until now Germany, Spain, France (by that order) are currently my favorites. https://elpais.com/deportes/eurocopa-futbol/2024-06-14/quien-va-a-ganar-la-eurocopa-asi-arrancan-las-predicciones-de-nuestro-modelo-estadistico.html?sma=lanewsletterdekikollaneras_2024.06.21_2&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=lanewsletterdekikollaneras_2024.06.21_2

- Pedro

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2/3 chances that Trump will win this year election. Are you prepared?

Based on the Economist model there a 2 in every 3 chances that Trump will win the US November’s election. Thus, have you at least embedded in your 2025 scenarios for the strong likelihood that this materializes? There are huge macro implications, just to name a few with direct impacts in Europe: increased protectionism and reduced free trade between US and all the other major players namely China and the spillovers for the other regions namely Europe, Conflict in Ukraine and Nato future, paramount for European stability, Increased incentives & protectionism to the chip industry. Dismantling of WTO and its institutions. Those are not minor impacts and are worthwhile at least to think about them by strategic teams and prepare your organization. https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/06/12/five-months-out-donald-trump-has-a-clear-lead

- Pedro

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Podcast Recommendation - Foundering by Bloomberg on OpenAI and Sam Altman

A great podcast series from Bloomberg - Foundering, the series 5 is on OpenAI and & Sam Altman. Strongly recommend it. Will now go through the other 4 series already available as the topics look very interesting. https://open.spotify.com/episode/6SjK4lTFVwQpUSI9UADcTb?si=52acc437efa245d3

- Pedro

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Sunday, June 16, 2024

"...Those who love books know that a book is anything but a commodity..."

"It is foolish to think that you have to read all the books you buy, as it is foolish to criticize those who buy more books than they will ever be able to read. It would be like saying that you should use all the cutlery or glasses or screwdrivers or drill bits you bought before buying new ones. "There are things in life that we need to always have plenty of supplies, even if we will only use a small portion. "If, for example, we consider books as medicine, we understand that it is good to have many at home rather than a few: when you want to feel better, then you go to the 'medicine closet' and choose a book. Not a random one, but the right book for that moment. That's why you should always have a nutrition choice! "Those who buy only one book, read only that one and then get rid of it. They simply apply the consumer mentality to books, that is, they consider them a consumer product, a good. Those who love books know that a book is anything but a commodity." Umberto Eco

- Pedro

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Leadership Strategy and Tactics by Jocko Willink - added to my wish-list

The Blinks for the book Leadership Strategy and Tactics by Jocko Willink caught my attention and I have added to my wish list. “…Leadership Strategy and Tactics (2020) teaches you how to take the skills of a high-functioning Navy SEAL team and apply them to your workplace. You’ll learn about practices such as Extreme Ownership, and find out why humility is better than arrogance. These tips will help you to leave your ego at the door and to remember that your team’s success should always come before personal success. …” https://www.blinkist.com/books/leadership-strategy-and-tactics-en?utm_source=bk_ios&utm_medium=bk_referral&utm_campaign=book%253Aplayer&utm_content=5e590d886cee07000673bbd7&referral_token=b1174473fb42

- Pedro

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Euro'24 & the fundamentals

The Euro’24 started for the joy of millions of fans (including myself), but one cannot forget and push to a far corner of your mind, due to the lapse of time, what is currently going on in Europ/Ukraine. This video from Ukraine Football national team is a good reminder of what is happening for more than 2 years. https://x.com/uafukraine/status/1801319839153459390

- Pedro

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Saturday, June 15, 2024

Summer readings I - Recommended by Mckinsey

5 books recommended by Mckinsey on strategy and leadership. All added to the wish list and library, you might find 1 or 2 that might be of interest. Rewired: The McKinsey Guide to Outcompeting in the Age of Digital and AI by Eric Lamarre (Autor), Kate Smaje, Rodney Zemmel Power to the Middle: Why Managers Hold the Keys by imr Bill ane Schaninger, Bryan Hancock CEO Excellence: The Six Mindsets That Distinguish the Best Leaders from the Rest by Carolyn Dewar (Autor), Scott Keller, Vikram Malhotra The Titanium Economy: How Industrial Technology Can Create a Better, Faster, Stronger America by Asutosh Padhi, Gaurav Batra (Autor), Nick Santhanam Deliberate Calm: How to Learn and Lead in a Volatile World byJacqueline Brassey, Aaron De Smet, Michiel Kruyt Happy readings https://email.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/themes/read-like-a-ceo?__hScId__=v70000018ffef379988a2bb2f4bbe5be50&__hRlId__=ec1024af61f44d710000021ef3a0bccf&__hDId__=ec1024af-61f4-4d71-80c9-f1a9567d0e2e&__hSD__=d3d3Lm1ja2luc2V5LmNvbQ==&cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck&hlkid=3df4d66b483a4a9fa3f9625f72d2d6f6&hctky=3011708&hdpid=ec1024af-61f4-4d71-80c9-f1a9567d0e2e

- Pedro

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Thursday, June 13, 2024

Chinese proverb

There's an old Chinese proverb that goes something like this, If you want to get knowledge, add something every day. If you want to achieve wisdom, subtract something every day

- Pedro

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Tuesday, June 11, 2024

Do you know how many Chinese university students will graduate this month (Jun'24)?

Did you know that this month 12m (million) students in China will graduate from College 🤯🤯🤯…. Let that number sink in !

- Pedro

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Sunday, June 9, 2024

New certification: Stats and Math for Data Science from O'Reilly

I’m happy to share that I’ve obtained a new certification: Stats and Math for Data Science from O'Reilly! Great recap of several key concepts mainly on descriptive statistics, distributions, probability theory, central limit theorem, hypothesis testing, regressions - linear, polynomial, logistic-& Anova, and couple of new insights on decision trees and random forests. https://www.credly.com/badges/368bb43f-8214-4afe-9098-dee9f07a0567/public_url

- Pedro

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How to write a good CV - 8 key insights

The second post I make in the last 15 days, now in English the former was based on an “El Pais” article -https://substack.com/@pedrosantospinto/note/c-56708941-, thus in Spanish, related on how to write a good CV, based on an Economist’s article that I found very interesting and useful for all the ones pursuing a new job. Key insights: Your resumé is not extended list of everything you have done in the past; it is rather a marketing tool. On average a recruitment professional takes 7 seconds making an initial assessment and selection of the received CV, thus every relevant word per second counts, Make it user friendly and nice to read→ use a clean, simple format. Less is more! Eliminate typos, avoid clichés… Don’t forget to include your contacts :-) (strangely enough sometimes it happens) Take time to develop it, condense and filter it as much as you can. Using Saint-Exupery quote (by memory) “It will be perfect not when you cannot add anything else, but when you cannot remove anything from the document”. Adapt your CV to the company you are applying, tweaking it to the industry, company or job you are applying, Quantify, if possible, your accomplishments. Hope it can be useful and happy readings! How to write the perfect CV https://www.economist.com/business/2024/05/30/how-to-write-the-perfect-cv from The Economist

- Pedro

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When to "Kill" your investment

A great article from the Economist on the when to divest importance from an investment and how and when to make that decision. This would be equally applicable to your stock portfolio, but also at corporate level from business units. It is true that 90% of the literature is about on how and when to buy, but equally important and value generating, but oftenly forgotten, is when to sell. I have a simple rule when buying or selling, if the value is under the low range of my valuation by more than 20% i should buy and when it is higher that 20% of range of my valuation, I should sell :-). The range is the interquartile of my valuation (usually done via a Monte Carlo simulation of 6 to max 10 key business variables). Key takeaways from the article: 1- Buying and selling 2 side of the same coin, 2- Should track also the ones you have sold to check if it was appropriate and learn, 3- Define a “Kill- Criteria” for every investment and stick to it. Happy readings! When to sell your stocks https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/05/30/when-to-sell-your-stocks from The Economist

- Pedro

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(re)Starting a new book: The Pyramid Principle: Logic in Writing and Thinking by Barbara Minto

(re)Starting a new book! The Pyramid Principle: Logic in Writing and Thinking by Barbara Minto “…The Pyramid Principle is the international best-seller on how to think creatively, reason lucidly and produce crisp, clear, compelling business writing. Join the tens of thousands of people worldwide who have benefited from Barbara Minto's technique, to present your thinking so clearly that the ideas jump off the page and into the mind of the reader. Can your writing do without it?…” https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/124582544-the-pyramid-principle?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=UUwCE5yDqk&rank=5

- Pedro

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Finalized: Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick: People, Probabilities, and Big Moves to Beat the Odds → by Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt, Sven Smit

Finalized Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick: People, Probabilities, and Big Moves to Beat the Odds → by Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt, Sven Smit Book Rating - 5 / 5 It was a pleasant surprise to read this book on strategy. Really enjoyed it and it is great food for thoughts on the way I would define and deploy Strategy from now onwards (it will improve my current framework in several ways). A must read for all the ones interested in the subject. Review to come shortly. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/37916972

- Pedro

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Saturday, June 8, 2024

Probabilistic forecast and sequential decision making - Joannes Vermorel (Lokad CEO) and Warren Powell (retired Princeton professor and Chief Innovation Officer at Optimal Dynamics)

A great discussion between Joannes Vermorel (Lokad CEO) and Warren Powell on probabilistic forecast and sequential decision making overall (and also on supply chain). An investment of 1h40m (normal speed) that is worth every minute. Really liked the business/hands-on approach from both on how to address these topics on the day-2-day corporate life and teh several great insights on how to approach and implement them from Academia to business. A couple of additional takeaways from my side: Will have a close look at the resources made available om Lokad (as it seems a great source of information and knowledge about this subject) Have bookmarked the course by Warren Powell on Sequential Decision Analytics and Modeling (Priceton) for future reference Downloaded Powell’s textbook on the subject “Modeling sequential decision problems” for future reading (available on the course site). Extended Summary “… In a recent interview hosted by Conor Doherty, Head of Communication at Lokad, Warren Powell, a retired professor from Princeton University and Chief Innovation Officer at Optimal Dynamics, and Joannes Vermorel, CEO and founder of Lokad, engaged in a thought-provoking discussion on probabilistic forecasts and sequential decision making in supply chain under the presence of uncertainty. Warren Powell, a seasoned veteran in the field of decision making across complex fields, began by sharing his career journey. His work started with the deregulation of freight transportation in the United States, which led him to focus on planning under uncertainty. He also discussed his role at Optimal Dynamics, a startup he works with, where he guides his former PhD students and contemplates new directions for the company. The conversation then shifted to Powell’s book, “Reinforcement Learning and Stochastic Optimization,” which delves into the realm of distributional or probabilistic forecasting. Powell shared an anecdote about a company that wanted to understand the value of offering a shipper a discount if they could predict future loads. This sparked his interest in the topic and led him to explore the challenges of forecasting in truckload https://www.lokad.com/third-party-logistics/ due to its stochastic nature. Joannes Vermorel, on the other hand, shared his journey from deterministic methods to probabilistic forecasting. He discussed his realization that deterministic methods were not working and the need to embrace uncertainty in https://www.lokad.com/supply-chain-management-definition/. He also criticized the academic community for its lack of real-world application and its focus on proving theorems and running numerical work. The discussion then turned to the difference between deterministic and probabilistic forecasting. Powell explained that while deterministic forecasting provides a single, actionable number, it fails to account for real-world variability. He argued that distributional forecasting, which provides a range of possible outcomes, is superior, although businesses often struggle to understand and apply this concept. Vermorel agreed with Powell, adding that probabilistic forecasting requires more complex metrics and a deeper understanding of probability distributions. He likened deterministic forecasting to looking at a tiny, detailed section of a desk through a microscope, while probabilistic forecasting provides a broader, more complete view. The conversation concluded with Vermorel sharing his experience implementing probabilistic forecasting at Lokad. He noted that it took several years to figure out how to optimize decisions based on these forecasts. He also discussed the lack of a unified community or paradigm for dealing with uncertainty in decision-making. Powell agreed, describing the field of decisions and uncertainty as a “jungle” due to the variety of different communities, languages, and notational systems. He shared his diverse experiences in various fields, from freight transportation to energy systems, and how these experiences led him to realize the limitations of certain approaches and the need for a broader perspective….” https://castle.princeton.edu/orf-411/ https://www.lokad.com/tv/2024/5/29/probabilistic-forecasts-sequential-decision-making/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxEI3g7q8S4

- Pedro

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Starting a new book: How to Take Smart Notes: One Simple Technique to Boost Writing, Learning and Thinking by Sönke Ahrens

Starting a new book! How to Take Smart Notes: One Simple Technique to Boost Writing, Learning and Thinking by Sönke Ahrens “…This is the second, revised and expanded edition. The first edition was published under the slightly longer title "How to Take Smart Notes. One Simple Technique to Boost Writing, Learning and Thinking - for Students, Academics and Nonfiction Book Writers". The key to good and efficient writing lies in the intelligent organisation of ideas and notes. This book helps students, academics and other knowledge workers to get more done, write intelligent texts and learn for the long run. It teaches you how to take smart notes and ensure they bring you and your projects forward. The Take Smart Notes principle is based on established psychological insight and draws from a tried and tested note-taking technique: the Zettelkasten. This is the first comprehensive guide and description of this system in English, and not only does it explain how it works, but also why. It suits students and academics in the social sciences and humanities, nonfiction writers and others who are in the business of reading, thinking and writing. Instead of wasting your time searching for your notes, quotes or references, you can focus on what really counts: thinking, understanding and developing new ideas in writing. Dr. Sönke Ahrens is a writer and researcher in the field of education and social science. He is the author of the award-winning book “Experiment and Exploration: Forms of World Disclosure” (Springer). Since its first publication, How to Take Smart Notes has sold more than 100,000 copies and has been translated into seven languages. …”

- Pedro

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How to Take Smart Notes by Sönke Ahrens - Book on the wish list

How to Take Smart Notes by Sönke Ahrens One Simple Technique to Boost Writing, Learning and Thinking – for Students, Academics and Nonfiction Book Writers Book added to my library based on the blinks and the interest I have on the subject in order to retain the most of the books/articles I read and podcasts and others I see and listen! Will start its reading pretty soon. “…How to Take Smart Notes (2017) is exactly that – an explanation of how and why to take smart notes. It explains how this simple, little-known, and often misunderstood technique can aid your thinking, writing, and learning. With the help of smart notes, you may never face the horror of a blank page again. …” https://www.blinkist.com/books/how-to-take-smart-notes-en?utm_source=bk_ios&utm_medium=bk_referral&utm_campaign=book%253Aplayer&utm_content=60fe5b446cee0700070a51c1&referral_token=b1174473fb42

- Pedro

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Leadership by Henry Kissinger - Blinks

After reading/listening to the blinks of this book i have added it to my wish-list. The blinks are a good way/tool to sort/prioritize the potential books to my library. “…Leadership (2022) is a detailed analysis of six monumental twentieth-century leaders. By examining both the circumstances that formed these leaders and the strategies they used to shepherd their respective nations through periods of turmoil, it presents invaluable lessons for anyone working to shape the world’s future. From Charles de Gaulle’s strategy of will to Anwar Sadat’s strategy of transcendence and beyond, it serves as a historical debriefing on some of the defining leadership strategies of the last century. …” https://www.blinkist.com/books/leadership-en-henry-kissinger?utm_source=bk_ios&utm_medium=bk_referral&utm_campaign=book%253Aplayer&utm_content=63078fd96cee070008972a17&referral_token=b1174473fb42

- Pedro

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How Math compares with History (and other sciences): a perspective.

A great post on the “MATHWITHBADDRAWINGS.COM” on how Math relates and compares with History as “science” (and also with other knowledge domains). Really like the VIz where you have in one extreme Math and in the other History and how several other social/hard sciences can be placed. Statistics should be, in my opinion, very close to Physics, but slightly above in far right of the chart! Enjoy! https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2024/06/04/whats-the-opposite-of-mathematics/

- Pedro

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Finalized: Do Dice Play God?: The Mathematics of Uncertainty → by Ian Stewart

Finalized Do Dice Play God?: The Mathematics of Uncertainty → by Ian Stewart Book Rating - 3.5 / 5 Great book on the science of uncertainty, learnt several concepts, revisited others in great journey through the world of uncertainty or this uncertain World. Review to come shortly “…Uncertainty is everywhere. It lurks in every consideration of the future - the weather, the economy, the sex of an unborn child - even quantities we think that we know such as populations or the transit of the planets contain the possibility of error. It's no wonder that, throughout that history, we have attempted to produce rigidly defined areas of uncertainty - we prefer the surprise party to the surprise asteroid. We began our quest to make certain an uncertain world by reading omens in livers, tea leaves, and the stars. However, over the centuries, driven by curiosity, competition, and a desire be better gamblers, pioneering mathematicians and scientists began to reduce wild uncertainties to tame distributions of probability and statistical inferences. But, even as unknown unknowns became known unknowns, our pessimism made us believe that some problems were unsolvable and our intuition misled us. Worse, as we realized how omnipresent and varied uncertainty is, we encountered chaos, quantum mechanics, and the limitations of our predictive power. Bestselling author Professor Ian Stewart explores the history and mathematics of uncertainty. Touching on gambling, probability, statistics, financial and weather forecasts, censuses, medical studies, chaos, quantum physics, and climate, he makes one thing clear: a reasonable probability is the only certainty. …” https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/43522601

- Pedro

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Monday, June 3, 2024

Should Chinese EV be subject to steep tariffs?

The new America tariffs (100%) on Chinese EV are reasonable? The free trade benefits to the global economy will be put on hold? If the EV manufacturers are being heavily subsidized by China, there is WTO to tackle those issues (or it should if the appellate body was working) and the security reason is a double edge sword. What will Europe do? Lost in enacting the best regulation on this subject, but losing the sight of value generation? In fact, what we are seeing is that the Chinese EV manufactures are far ahead of the American and European’s manufacturers (in terms of value and price) but protecting this industry via tariffs, will protect inefficient industries, make them less competitive and complacent, create overall inefficiencies with the foreseeable trade retaliations and harm consumers. America’s 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs: bad policy, worse leadership https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/05/15/americas-100-tariffs-on-chinese-evs-bad-policy-worse-leadership from The Economist

- Pedro

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The relevance of being a good follower!

An interesting and insightful article on the importance of being a good follower. Everyone talks and writes about on how to be a leader, but if all are leaders, then who will you lead:-)? At the end of day, you are a more likely to be a follower than a leader (e.g. what is the CEO ratio to all employees?). Key traits to be a good follower: Proactivity Challenge the leader by thinking for yourself and present you point of views, Give constructive criticism, Be positive, Be energetic. In a nutshell. behave like a leader in waiting. Below you can follow the path to the Economist article on the subject :-). “…As the British Army, a rare example of an organisation that has an explicit doctrine of followership, puts it, “To follow effectively…is a choice.” …” How to be a good follower https://www.economist.com/business/2024/05/16/how-to-be-a-good-follower from The Economist

- Pedro

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Sunday, June 2, 2024

How technology, supported by AI, is enabling new crop-spraying techniques making them more efficient than ever

A great article from the Economist how technology (AI and the like) is already generating a big impact in the agriculture industry. In this specific case it relates with pesticide spray onto crops, where in the past the % that was lost without any impact was huge. This new methodology can cut the amounts of sprayed pesticides by more than 90% with direct impact on the economics of the industry and the overall environment. How advanced technology and AI can generate a significant positive impact to the agriculture industry, thus to the overall economy, thus to the wellbeing and standards of living. Happy readings! New crop-spraying technologies are more efficient than ever https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/05/08/new-crop-spraying-technologies-are-more-efficient-than-ever from The Economist

- Pedro

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A MIGRATION insightful discussion (past, present and future) with Hein de Haas

A great podcast from FFMS with Hein Haas about migration. Did not Hein Haas and was delightfully surprised by his knowledge, ability to see the big picture and frame the migration phenomenon holistically via a societal and individual lenses. All of us are migrants in some sort of way and we need push aside the narrative that supports most of the extreme speeches throughout Europe that are gaining traction. The way forward is to share and promote the knowledge about migration (history, present, future, key features, advantages and potential caveats/concerns) to a wider audience and listening to Hein Haas and others like him is always well invested time. Invest 46 minutes (listening speed 1x) and come-out more informed and better prepared to address this important topic in your daily life. Enjoy! “…«There is nothing more permanent than a temporary migrant. Don't create any illusions that a fair share of migrants in not going to stay», says sociologist Hein de Haas, in this episode of «It's Not That Simples», a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. One of the most enlightened but also thought provocative voices of migrations, Hein de Haas explains that this hot topic of today is neither a phenomenon nor a novelty. «Migration is part and parcel of who we are as human beings, as a society», he explains, emphasizing that migratory movements have been taking place «for as long as humanity has existed». The difference lies in Europe's position in this chessboard, having shifted from being a point of departure (in colonialism or world wars) to being a continent where citizens from all over the world arrive. Highlighting that it is impossible to stop this movement, the sociologist warns against the hypocrisy of policies that punish migrants instead of those who accept them illegally. «In the United States, the number of employers who are prosecuted each year for employing undocumented migrants is between 10 and 15 a year, with no zeros», he claims. «If you would really be serious as a politician when you say 'I want to combat smuggling, I want to combat illegal migration'... If you really want to do that, you better punish employers», Hein de Haas explains, adding that the lack of consequences for those who employ them fuels exploitation and abuse. Breaking down the false narratives on this issue - from the left, which sees immigrants as «victims and refugees», and from the right, which speaks of the threat of those who «arrive to steal jobs» - the expert believes that these discourses hide the real problem: the fact that «in Western Europe and the US, there is the biggest labor shortage ever, especially of low-skilled migrants»…” https://podcasts.apple.com/es/podcast/its-not-that-simple/id1636466578?i=1000654862704

- Pedro

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Saturday, June 1, 2024

Books added to the Library throughout May'24

Throughout May’24 I have added 17 books to my library. Hopefully, you can also find 1 or 2 for your own library!

The selection rules were:

  • the book had to be recommended by someone directly or by an article I have read or a podcast I have listened.

  • the book should be less than €5 (usually via Kindle -promotions- or 2nd hand).

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  1. Small Things Like These, Claire Keegan

“…It is 1985, in an Irish town. During the weeks leading up to Christmas, Bill Furlong, a coal and timber merchant, faces into his busiest season. As he does the rounds, he feels the past rising up to meet him - and encounters the complicit silences of a people controlled by the Church….”

  1. El Método Zugzwang 2: Planes de entrenamiento para el jugador de ajedrez que quiere progresar, Daniel Muñoz Sánchez (Autor), Herminio Herraiz Hidalgo (Autor),

“…Planes y material de entrenamiento para el jugador de ajedrez que quiere subir al siguiente nivel Recomendado especialmente para jugadores de club hasta 2300 puntos de ELO.

Además, si compras el libro y nos lo cuentas, te llevarás un curso de ajedrez totalmente gratis (*ver interior)

Más de 300 páginas con ejercicios clasificados por niveles y áreas de entrenamiento.

Análisis exhaustivos orientados a la preparación de partidas de los mejores jugadores del mundo actuales: Vladimir Kramnik, Wesley So, Caruana, Nakamura, Carlsen, Karpov, Aronian, Giri, Ivanchuk, Le Quang Liem, Mamedyarov, Vachier-Lagrave, Nepomniachtchi, Grischuk, Akobian, Topalov, Ding, Bareev, Shirov, Leko, Harikrishna, Karjakin, YuYangyi… y muchos otros.

Material para el estudio y/o el entrenamientoclaramente diferenciado y organizado.

Sistema progresivo de trabajo cuidadosamente pautado tanto en dificultad como en volumen de preparación.

Un plan de entrenamientopara prepararte de 10 a 20 semanas.

Aprende técnicas probadas para ganar más partidas.

Los finales de ajedrez que todo jugador debe conocer y que son la base para comprender los finales complejos.

17 ejercicios clasificados por niveles para desarrollar y mejorar tu comprensión y análisis posicional.

48 ejercicios clasificados por niveles para el desarrollo de la capacidad de cálculo de variantes, visualización y profundización.

29 ejercicios clasificados por niveles para el desarrollo de la capacidad de cálculo a corto plazo.

21 ejercicios clasificados para la consolidación del conocimiento de finales teóricos y el progreso en la comprensión de finales no teóricos. …”

  1. On Savage Shores: How Indigenous Americans Discovered Europe, Caroline Dodds Pennock

“…In this groundbreaking new history, Caroline Dodds Pennock recovers the long-marginalised stories of the Indigenous Americans who - as enslaved people, diplomats, explorers, servants and traders - left a profound impact on European civilisation in the 'Age of Discovery'. On Savage Shores is a sweeping account of power and influence in America and Europe - one which could forever change the way we understand our global history….”

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  1. Cómo funciona el mundo: Una guía científica de nuestro pasado, presente y futuro, Vaclav Smil

“…Vaclav Smil lleva cincuenta años estudiando las posibilidades que tenemos a nuestro alcance para garantizar el futuro energético de nuestro planeta. Debido a la complejidad de las interacciones que mueven el mundo, la atomización del conocimiento y la volatilidad de la información es muy difícil anticipar con exactitud qué ocurrirá. Por eso es necesario ceñirse a los datos y a los límites quenos ofrece la ciencia, así como poner la atención en los escenarios más cercanos y menos idealistas para encarar los retos actuales de manera eficaz.

Así pues, este libro aborda temas tan importantes como la improbable y difícil tarea de descarbonizar el planeta, en parte por la estrecha relación entre la producción de alimentos y los combustibles fósiles, pero también destapa realidades incómodas, como la dependenciade las economías modernas respecto de la alta producción de amoníaco, metal, cemento y plástico. Además, examina de qué forma el calentamiento global puede afectar a nuestras necesidades básicas para sobrevivir y anima a reevaluar los riesgos que hemos subestimado o exagerado a lo largo de los años para aprender a vivir más y mejor.

Cómo funciona el mundo es literalmente un libro sobre cómo funciona el mundo. Por su estructura y clarividencia, sirve como una guía interdisciplinaria que evita a toda costa dar eco a las posturas extremas y propone una respuesta objetiva, científica yrazonada a todos los titulares que nos generan ansiedad: la crisis climática, la crisis energética, la crisis de materias primas, la globalización y el futuro de nuestra civilización. El resultado es un poderoso ensayo que combina los más recientes descubrimientos científicos y el trabajo de quien ha investigado a lo largo de medio siglo los retos energéticos a los que nos enfrentamos. …”

  1. Oliver Sacks 3 Books Collection Set (The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat, Hallucinations, Awakenings), Oliver Sacks

“…The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat:

In his most extraordinary book, The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat, Oliver Sacks recounts the stories of patients lost in the bizarre, apparently inescapable world of neurological disorders. These are case studies of people who have lost their memories and with them the greater part of their pasts; who are no longer able to recognize people or common objects; whose limbs have become alien; who are afflicted and yet are gifted with uncanny artistic or mathematical talents.

Hallucinations:

In Hallucinations, with his usual elegance, curiosity, and compassion, Dr Oliver Sacks weaves together stories of his patients and of his own mind-altering experiences to illuminate what hallucinations tell us about the organization and structure of our brains, how they have influenced every culture's folklore and art, and why the potential for hallucination is present in us all, a vital part of the human condition.

Awakenings:

Hailed as a medical classic, and the subject of a major feature film as well as radio and stage plays and various TV documentaries, Awakenings by Oliver Sacks is the extraordinary account of a group of twenty patients. Rendered catatonic by the sleeping-sickness epidemic that swept the world just after the First World War, all twenty had spent forty years in hospital: motionless and speechless; aware of the world around them, but exhibiting no interest in it - until Dr Sacks administered the then-new drug, L-DOPA, which caused them, temporarily, to awake from their decades-long slumber. …”

  1. Winter Swimming: The Nordic Way Towards a Healthier and Happier Life, Susanna Søberg

“…A beautifully illustrated exploration of cold-water traditions in Scandinavia and around the world, and a factual, scientific account of why winter swimming gives such a boost to body and soul.

Whether in lake, lido, river or sea, we know the benefits of swimming outdoors and in nature - environmentally friendly and accessible, it can influence our happiness, our energy and our inner tranquility, and give us that winter glow.

Danish scientist Dr Susanna Søberg leads us step by step into the icy water and explains the "cold-shock response", the massive endorphin rush as our body reacts and adapts to very cold temperatures through the winter season. Not only do our circulation, heart, lungs and skin respond positively, but our immune system, metabolism and mental health too. In particular she explains how our "brown fat" is activated to benefit multiple health conditions.

Winter swimming is fast becoming one of our most popular pastimes. This beautifully illustrated exploration of cold-water traditions in Scandinavia and around the world shows how it can have a significant positive impact on our physical and mental health, confidence and well-being, providing such a boost to body and soul. …”

  1. From Russia with Love, Ian Fleming

“…Meet James Bond, the world's most famous spy.James Bond is marked for death by the Soviet counterintelligence

agency SMERSH in Ian Fleming's masterful spy thriller, and the novel that President John F. Kennedy named one of his favourite books of all time.SMERSH stands for "Death to Spies" and there's no secret agent they'd like to disgrace and destroy more than 007. But ensnaring the British Secret Service's most lethal operative will require a lure so tempting even he can't resist. Enter Tatiana Romanova, a ravishing Russian spy whose "defection" springs a trap designed with clockwork precision. Her mission: seduce Bond, then flee to the West on the Orient Express. Waiting in the shadows are two of Ian Fleming's most vividly drawn villains: Red Grant, SMERSH's deadliest assassin, and the sinister operations chief Rosa Klebb - five feet four inches of pure killing power.Bursting with action and intrigue, From Russia with Love is one of the best-loved books in the Bond canon - an instant classic that set the standard for sophisticated literary spycraft for decades to come….”

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  1. AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order, Kai-Fu Lee

“… Kai-Fu Lee believes China will be the next tech-innovation superpower and in AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order, he explains why. Taiwan-born Lee is perfectly positioned for the task."—New York Magazine

In this thought-provoking book, Lee argues powerfully that because of the unprecedented developments in AI, dramatic changes will be happening much sooner than many of us expected. Indeed, as the US-Sino AI competition begins to heat up, Lee urges the US and China to both accept and to embrace the great responsibilities that come with significant technological power.

Most experts already say that AI will have a devastating impact on blue-collar jobs. But Lee predicts that Chinese and American AI will have a strong impact on white-collar jobs as well. Is universal basic income the solution? In Lee’s opinion, probably not. But he provides a clear description of which jobs will be affected and how soon, which jobs can be enhanced with AI, and most importantly, how we can provide solutions to some of the most profound changes in the future of human….”

  1. Slaughterhouse-Five: A Novel, Kurt Vonnegut

“…Slaughterhouse-Five, an American classic, is one of the world’s great antiwar books. Centering on the infamous World War II firebombing of Dresden, the novel is the result of what Kurt Vonnegut described as a twenty-three-year struggle to write a book about what he had witnessed as an American prisoner of war. It combines historical fiction, science fiction, autobiography, and satire in an account of the life of Billy Pilgrim, a barber’s son turned draftee turned optometrist turned alien abductee. As Vonnegut had, Billy experiences the destruction of Dresden as a POW. Unlike Vonnegut, he experiences time travel, or coming “unstuck in time.”

An instant bestseller, Slaughterhouse-Five made Kurt Vonnegut a cult hero in American literature, a reputation that only strengthened over time, despite his being banned and censored by some libraries and schools for content and language. But it was precisely those elements of Vonnegut’s writing—the political edginess, the genre-bending inventiveness, the frank violence, the transgressive wit—that have inspired generations of readers not just to look differently at the world around them but to find the confidence to say something about it. Authors as wide-ranging as Norman Mailer, John Irving, Michael Crichton, Tim O’Brien, Margaret Atwood, Elizabeth Strout, David Sedaris, Jennifer Egan, and J. K. Rowling have all found inspiration in Vonnegut’s words. Jonathan Safran Foer has described Vonnegut as “the kind of writer who made people—young people especially—want to write.” George Saunders has declared Vonnegut to be “the great, urgent, passionate American writer of our century, who offers us . . . a model of the kind of compassionate thinking that might yet save us from ourselves.”

More than fifty years after its initial publication at the height of the Vietnam War, Vonnegut’s portrayal of political disillusionment, PTSD, and postwar anxiety feels as relevant, darkly humorous, and profoundly affecting as ever, an enduring beacon through our own era’s uncertainties. …”

  1. Transcription, Kate Atkinson

“…In 1940, eighteen-year old Juliet Armstrong is reluctantly recruited into the world of espionage. Sent to an obscure department of MI5 tasked with monitoring the comings and goings of British Fascist sympathizers, she discovers the work to be by turns both tedious and terrifying. But after the war has ended, she presumes the events of those years have been relegated to the past for ever.

Ten years later, now a producer at the BBC, Juliet is unexpectedly confronted by figures from her past. A different war is being fought now, on a different battleground, but Juliet finds herself once more under threat. A bill of reckoning is due, and she finally begins to realize that there is no action without consequence.

Transcription is a work of rare depth and texture, a bravura modern novel of extraordinary power, wit and empathy. It is a triumphant work of fiction from one of this country’s most exceptional writers. …”

  1. The Coldest Winter: America and the Korean War, David Halberstam

“…David Halberstam's magisterial and thrilling The Best and the Brightest was the defining book about the Vietnam conflict. More than three decades later, Halberstam used his unrivaled research and formidable journalistic skills to shed light on another pivotal moment in our history: the Korean War. Halberstam considered The Coldest Winter his most accomplished work, the culmination of forty-five years of writing about America's postwar foreign policy.

Halberstam gives us a masterful narrative of the political decisions and miscalculations on both sides. He charts the disastrous path that led to the massive entry of Chinese forces near the Yalu River and that caught Douglas MacArthur and his soldiers by surprise. He provides astonishingly vivid and nuanced portraits of all the major figures--Eisenhower, Truman, Acheson, Kim, and Mao, and Generals MacArthur, Almond, and Ridgway. At the same time, Halberstam provides us with his trademark highly evocative narrative journalism, chronicling the crucial battles with reportage of the highest order. As ever, Halberstam was concerned with the extraordinary courage and resolve of people asked to bear an extraordinary burden.

The Coldest Winter is contemporary history in its most literary and luminescent form, providing crucial perspective on every war America has been involved in since. It is a book that Halberstam first decided to write more than thirty years ago and that took him nearly ten years to complete. It stands as a lasting testament to one of the greatest journalists and historians of our time, and to the fighting men whose heroism it chronicles. …”

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  1. Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the Uses-and Misuses-of History, Barry Eichengreen

“…The two great financial crises of the past century are the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession, which began in 2008. Both occurred against the backdrop of sharp credit booms, dubious banking practices, and a fragile and unstable global financial system. When markets went into cardiac arrest in 2008, policymakers invoked the lessons of the Great Depression in attempting to avert the worst. While their response prevented a financial collapse and catastrophic depression like that of the 1930s, unemployment in the U.S. and Europe still rose to excruciating high levels. Pain and suffering were widespread.

The question, given this, is why didn't policymakers do better? Hall of Mirrors, Barry Eichengreen's monumental twinned history of the two crises, provides the farthest-reaching answer to this question to date. Alternating back and forth between the two crises and between North America and Europe, Eichengreen shows how fear of another Depression following the collapse of Lehman Brothers shaped policy responses on both continents, with both positive and negative results. Since bank failures were a prominent feature of the Great Depression, policymakers moved quickly to strengthen troubled banks. But because derivatives markets were not important in the 1930s, they missed problems in the so-called shadow banking system. Having done too little to support spending in the 1930s, governments also ramped up public spending this time around. But the response was indiscriminate and quickly came back to haunt overly indebted governments, particularly in Southern Europe. Moreover, because politicians overpromised, and because their measures failed to stave off a major recession, a backlash quickly developed against activist governments and central banks. Policymakers then prematurely succumbed to the temptation to return to normal policies before normal conditions had returned. The result has been a grindingly slow recovery in the United States and endless recession in Europe.

Hall of Mirrors is both a major work of economic history and an essential exploration of how we avoided making only some of the same mistakes twice. It shows not just how the "lessons" of Great Depression history continue to shape society's response to contemporary economic problems, but also how the experience of the Great Recession will permanently change how we think about the Great Depression. …”

  1. The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron, Bethany McLean & Peter Elkind

“…Until the spring of 2001, Enron epitomized the triumph of the New Economy. Feared by rivals, worshipped by investors, Enron seemingly could do no wrong. Its profits rose every year; its stock price surged ever upward; its leaders were hailed as visionaries.

Then a young Fortune writer, Bethany McLean, wrote an article posing a simple question - how, exactly, does Enron make its money?

Within a year Enron was facing humiliation and bankruptcy, the largest in US history, which caused Americans to lose faith in a system that rewarded top insiders with millions of dollars, while small investors lost everything. It was revealed that Enron was a company whose business was an illusion, an illusion that Wall Street was willing to accept even though they knew what the real truth was. This book tells the extraordinary story of Enron's fall….”

  1. Death and the Penguin, Andrey Kurkov

“…Viktor is an aspiring writer in Ukraine with only Misha, his pet penguin, for company.

Although Viktor would prefer to write short stories, he earns a living composing obituaries for a newspaper. He longs to see his work published, yet the subjects of his obituaries continue to cling to life.

But when Viktor opens the newspaper to see his work in print for the first time, his pride swiftly turns to terror. Viktor and Misha have been drawn into a trap from which there appears to be no escape. …”

  1. The Pleasure of Finding Things Out, Richard P. Feynman

“…The Pleasure of Finding Things Out is a magnificent treasury of the best short works of Richard P. Feynman-from interviews and speeches to lectures and printed articles. A sweeping, wide-ranging collection, it presents an intimate and fascinating view of a life in science-a life like no other. From his ruminations on science in our culture to his Nobel Prize acceptance speech, this book will fascinate anyone interested in the world of ideas. …”

Happy readings!



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How Jim Simons revolutionized investing

A final note on the demise of James Simons, now by the economist. Considered as a disruptor in the Finance Industry due to the way he approached the market via a scientific lens, taking advantage of the market imperfections to consistently create alpha. "…How Jim Simons revolutionised investing https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/05/16/how-jim-simons-revolutionised-investing from The Economist …”

- Pedro

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Seascape near Les Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer -> Animation

A great example on how to bring Van Gogh’s painting to life, In this case Seascape near Les Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer’ (1888). Enjoy the video made available by the Van Gogh’s Museum on former Twitter and now X. “…Bringing the painting ‘Seascape near Les Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer’ (1888) to life! This animation is made by Andrey Zakirzyanov. Thank you for using Vincent’s work to inspire your creativity by Andrey Surotdinov …” https://x.com/i/status/1724744385949052959 https://x.com/vangoghmuseum/status/1724744385949052959

- Pedro

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Cómo no inflar los problemas

Recomiendo la lectura de este articulo d’El País sobre la tendencia que tenemos en sobrevalorar los problemas que tenemos y como nos debemos enfocar en las soluciones prácticas e sencillas para su gran mayoría (el principio “Occam Razor”). No te olvides que la perspectiva como afrontas los problemas y tu estado de espíritu puede mudar completamente la magnitud de los problemas (ejemplo del sol por la mañana y por la tarde). Adicionalmente, nada como empezar a trabajar en solventarlo o minimizarlo (identificar las variables manejables en juego, cuáles son las que puedas controlar, delinear un plan de acción y ejecutarlo) es llave. El torpor de la queja no te lleva ningún sitio :-) Finalmente, y como siempre me gusta te recomienda 2 libros (adicionado a mis lista de deseos): No hagas montañas de granos de arena de Rafael Santandreu Don’t Sweat the Small Stuff (and It’s All Small Stuff) de Richard Carlson   ¡Buenas lecturas! “…No lleves nunca a cuestas más de un tipo de problemas simultáneamente. Hay quienes cargan con tres: los que tuvieron, los que ahora tienen y los que esperan tener…”. https://elpais.com/eps/2024-05-16/como-no-inflar-los-problemas.html

- Pedro

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Feria del Libro -> Del 31 de mayo al 16 de junio de 2024 / Parque de El Retiro (imperdíble)

¡La fiesta (feria) anual del libro ya ha empezado en Madrid en el Retiro! ¡¡¡¡De 31 de mayo hasta 16 de junio a celebrarlo!!!! https://ferialibromadrid.com/

- Pedro

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