Saturday, October 31, 2020

Review: Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy

Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy by Cathy O'Neil
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

An actual, important and insightful book that everyone should read, but should be mandatory for every data practitioners, managers and decision/policy makers.

It provides several examples whereby mathematical/statistics models can go wary and produce outcomes significantly different from the ones original sought and create or reinforce bias, perpetuate trends, reinforce segregation and produce pure bad results and behaviors.

And all this happens while most of the times the models were created with the best intention, of course there are also the cases that some were created to generate and exploit systematical the debilities of specific groups or individuals.

My key takeaways of the book to address most of the identified problems are:
- all models are simplifications of complex realities (full stop);
- when creating a model one should be cognizant of the previous, thus adapt and embrace that it will not be able to address all the variables, so trade-offs have to be made, but those should be made explicit;
- the variables and trade-offs should be made by its relative importance and not because they are quantitively available and make the model work better from an statistical/econometric perspective;
- the models should not be black boxes and transparency should be granted to all the ones that are using it (the user have the right to know);
- the models should be continuously monitored and adapted to the new realities;
- the outcomes and the impact of the model should also be assessed on a systematically way, to ensure there are no unintended consequences of its use.

I'm still a strong believer that these models when properly applied are of great value to underpin the human development, but they can really become WMD if not understood, controlled and monitored by the experts and by the society as all (through regulators, policies in place and by the individuals).

However, there should always be an ethical commitment by the ones who are creating them, this community cannot be neutral to what they are creating.

I feel on my day-to-day work that the model creators do not like to share and are unwilling to share their work with the others (within the society or organization) and that has to change dramatically. The mathematicians, statisticians and data-scientist have to develop their communication skills to be able to explain the models created to any audience they face (not the other way around). If you cannot explain it in 5 minutes and easily is because you do not know it thoroughly!

Regarding the book i think it emphasizes too much on the examples of WMD (after 4/5 the reader gets the point the author is trying to make) and does not focus sufficiently on the potential solutions for the problems presented.

Do recommend its reading.


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Wednesday, October 7, 2020

Review: International Business Communication Standards: Conceptual, Perceptual, and Semantic Design of Comprehensible Business Reports, Presentations, and Dashboards

International Business Communication Standards: Conceptual, Perceptual, and Semantic Design of Comprehensible Business Reports, Presentations, and Dashboards International Business Communication Standards: Conceptual, Perceptual, and Semantic Design of Comprehensible Business Reports, Presentations, and Dashboards by Rolf Hichert
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

A great small hand(y)book on how to create, develop and present business reports.

It lays-out a set of simple and thorough standards on business communication, also covering the necessary and required theory to frame the main concepts (it also guides you where to find more fundamental knowledge if you find appropriate).

It's really an hands-on book with lots of examples, suggestions and tips that you can immediately apply to your reports, some simple and other more elaborated but all grounded in key simple and valuable principles.

Made me think critically on several reports I'm using and will definitely promote some changes based on this insights and knowledge i got while reading it. Will have it by my side every time i will be creating or reviewing a business report and whatever business communication.

A spillover of the reading this book, is that I have decided to reread the book "The Pyramid Principle", it's been a while that i did it and refresher will be helpful.

Strongly recommend its reading to all interested on this subject.  

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Saturday, September 19, 2020

Review: The First Cell: And the Human Costs of Pursuing Cancer to the Last

The First Cell: And the Human Costs of Pursuing Cancer to the Last The First Cell: And the Human Costs of Pursuing Cancer to the Last by Azra Raza
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

Decided to read this book after listening to the Author on an Econtalk podcast.

There was something on how Azra Raza explained the key message of the book and the humanity conveyed in such discussion that immediately "magnated" me into reading it.

A disturbing book about cancer, its impact on the lives of those who have to deal with it (on the first person or related family and friends), that more than once made me stop, take a deep breath and reflect, before i could continue.

The key message presented, that the cancer research and associated mainstream treatment (slash, poison and burn) did do not evolve that much in the last 50 years, adheres to reality and that the proposed paradigm shift that she proposes looks also so well grounded. balanced and logic that it seems strange that the proposed approach (to detect the first cell instead of treating millions of them after it is widespread) does not have more interest, momentum and investment.

Sometime it seems that, once again, it's a question of an incorrect incentives and rewards system put in place, that does not allow to make tangible progress on this important subject.

Regarding the author, an oncologist, that experienced all the portrayed stories being an active participant in each of them, you can feel the humanity, empathy, care, frustration and sense impotence she experience with each.

Strongly recommend its reading to all interested in the subject.


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Saturday, September 12, 2020

Review: Written in History: Letters that Changed the World

Written in History: Letters that Changed the World Written in History: Letters that Changed the World by Simon Sebag Montefiore
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

Started this books with great expectations after listening to an Intelligence Squared podcast about it.

It was probably due to this high expectations that I gave only a rating of 3/5 starts.

The book discloses several letters throughout history and explains the context when they were written in an interesting and some times compelling way.

Nonetheless, only an handful of them provide credit to the title of the book, others have some historic interest but just that and others looked more like personal life anecdotes of illustrious historic figures.

Saying that, the time reading was short, well spent and light-spirited.

However, before starting it you should consider the opportunity cost of such decision (i.e. have in mind other books you might want to read first)

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Review: Fifty Economic Fallacies Exposed

Fifty Economic Fallacies Exposed Fifty Economic Fallacies Exposed by Geoffrey Edward Wood
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

A small handbook that explains in a simple way 50 economic concepts that usually people get it wrong.

The book was written in a way that someone that is not an expert in the field can easily read it and understand its concepts and the main flaws commonly assumed.

The big problem about these fallacies is that they are widely used by policy makers and politicians, sometimes knowingly or in some case due to ignorance. to promote their conservative, progressive or libertarian ideas (you have it for all tastes).

Strongly advise all (specially the 2 groups previously highlighted) to read this book and that all keep it handy when you hear so called pundits talking about these key economic principles.

The only caveats that i could find while reading it were:
1) The book is strongly biased to the UK reality, that from a fallacies perspective is not a problem, but it explain them almost only with British examples;
2) The author has some unresolved issue with Gordon Brown when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer.

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Review: The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People: Powerful Lessons in Personal Change

The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People: Powerful Lessons in Personal Change The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People: Powerful Lessons in Personal Change by Stephen R. Covey
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

Must confess that i had some (not so good) preconceived ideas about this book and that was the reason why it took me so long to start reading it even after i had bought it for some time.

My main rationale was: What could a best seller that sounded like a self-help book could offer me :-)?

Only when i saw it recommend it 2/3 other books and listen to it as a reference in also a couple of podcasts. i have decided to reluctantly start such endeavor... and what a pleasant surprise it was, i really liked it.

I liked the overall framework (7 habits) and how it is exposed, I liked the basic concepts (e.g what are values, principles, the habits, etc...), I liked that you can try to live and strive to improve the proposed habits and that those are actionable and ground to earth.

Like in every book, its value resided in the intersection of what the author wants to convey and what the reader can and takes out of it. The former is static when the book is published the latter is dynamic and depends on the reader and of course its context.

I will try to take the most of what has been shared in its simplicity and practicability, but at the same time be aware of the complexity of walking the proposed path.

I definitely recommend its reading.


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Monday, July 27, 2020

Review: Futebol ao Sol e à Sombra

Futebol ao Sol e à Sombra Futebol ao Sol e à Sombra by Eduardo Galeano
My rating: 5 of 5 stars

Um livro obrigatório para todos aqueles que gostam, apreciam e desfrutam do jogo de futebol, escrito por alguém que comparte a mesma paixão e que a associa ao dom da escrita.

Estes retratos tão definidos, ao mesmo tempo tão sentidos, e que nos transportam como máquina do tempo para cada um desses lugares e nos fazem viver cada momento aqui e agora.

Existem aqueles momentos de que ouvimos falar, outros que não conhecíamos e outros que os pudemos viver e também desfrutar.

Não é uma obra-prima da literatura contemporânea, mas capta de uma forma única o sentir futebol e todas as emoções que com ele vivemos.

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Sunday, May 24, 2020

Review: Esteja eu onde estiver

Esteja eu onde estiver Esteja eu onde estiver by Romana Petri
My rating: 2 of 5 stars

Livro de fácil leitura...mas apenas isso.

Uma história sobre uma família como muitas outras, tem o adicional de passar-se em Lisboa num tempo não tão distante e em parte do enredo poder identificar(-me) algumas situaçoes.

570 páginas de livro que confesso que terminei com alguma dificuldade, não porque fosse uma leitura difícl/penosa, mas porque a história ficou previsível e com pouco ritmo.

Caso nao tenha mais nada que ler, queira passar algum tempo e queira algo mt leve, este livro poderá ser uma opção, contudo existem outros livros ou actividades que devem ser equacionadas antes de começar esta "empreitada".

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Review: The Three Languages of Politics: Talking Across the Political Divides

The Three Languages of Politics: Talking Across the Political Divides The Three Languages of Politics: Talking Across the Political Divides by Arnold Kling
My rating: 5 of 5 stars

A great (small/efficient< 150 pages) book, it explains in a simple and concise way the basics of the major political divide and why the majority tend to go to the extremes while debating it and be so intransigent to the others who see differently from us and finally why in the public domain it's so difficult to have a sound and value-added discussion about politics and policy options,

Don't expect it to be an in-depth political science book, but one that tries to explain the divide, one that lays the foundation of the communication (languages) problems and how we could start changing the current status.

The 3 axis are heuristics/rules of thumb of the 3 main political tendencies and should not be seen as an extensive portrait of each spectrum (they, are used to exemplify, sometimes to the extreme, why we cannot understand each other and find a common ground.

Its simplicity, objectivity and capacity to convey the thesis that the author presents (and that i fully relate to), coupled with a great capacity of synthesis, not extending beyond the fundamental of your argument (in area that could push you to do so), made me give a 5 stars rating.

Strongly advise its reading as its reach and insights will last way more that the time you will invest in it, and it's applicable not only to politics but other areas,

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Sunday, March 1, 2020

Sunday thoughts - while Peppa Pig and the kind is playing nonstop on my tele.

Another Sunday morning, Peppa Pig, Paw Patrol and SpongeBob are playing non stop on the tele, for the happiness of my 3 kids and my mind tries find refuge somewhere else for the sake of my mental sanity.

Is based on this setup that i started thinking about an article that i have read in the Economist that basically was saying that all the latest big successful IPOs were almost exclusively done by companies that had blitzscaled based on business models that the winner takes it all, thus growth at all cost trumps anything else and the price they charge for the services/products provided are significantly below the price of its marginal costs and even not mentioning its value (the Uber, Lyft, Neflix, Spotify, Tesla's of these world). This, then creates an huge consumer surplus and on a macro level tames the inflation on the big economies.

If we compound all the direct effects created by this trend and also the spillovers to the other industries, we mix it with the trade wars and the massive subsidies that are being given to the Agricultural sector in the US and also in EU (the latter something almost perennial since the EU inception), we see that most probably the current low inflation could be the results of all these non natural factors that cannot be sustained on the long term (the markets are already asking positive results to these companies and that can only be achieved with higher prices that the end-consumer will have to pay eventually).

Then if we go from the Micro to Macro, we see that the QE and historical low interest rates (even negative) can be done only in an environment of low inflation and even with this big stimulus we denote that the economic growth prospects are dismal to say the least to the advanced economies.

So if inflation picks-up due to this rebalancing of the current pricing levels of these everyday more important products/services in the CPI basket (technological and agricultural ones) and the low inflation scenario disappear are we set to a major disruption in Macro terms?

Well, just started an episode of Motown Magic that i really like, thus have decided to stop the nonsense thinking and enjoy the music and the story with my 3 kids! Enjoy the weekend!

Review: The Conservative Sensibility

The Conservative Sensibility The Conservative Sensibility by George F. Will
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

Really enjoyed reading this book and do recommend it to all the ones interested in political science.

I do think that all, so called conservatives or progressives, should read it so they can have a better perspective on what Conservatism is, entails and projects from a societal standpoint.

Several misconceptions and believes from both sides are exposed, analyzed and significantly challenged. You might not agree with everything (even be far from that), but, as it's presented, will allow you to think about it and stress your own philosophy and political building blocks.

The big question is: are there natural rights, consequence of the human existence and uniqueness, that supersede any social and moral construct, made by men and imposed by a majority, that should be the overarching principles of any society (eg. "...all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness ..." - take creator as you might feel appropriate). If yes, these principles are prior to any social construct and are its unchangeable foundations.

Based on this premise all the areas of a society (judicial, executive, legislative, economic, science, etc...) should be based and always address and respect these natural rights and protect them no matter what (the so called conservative sensibility).

The book has broaden my way thinking (made me address these problems in a different way) and pushed the boundaries of my rationale and how I framed some essential questions. Writing that, i do not say that i fully agree with the author, but even when i disagree it made me think of my preconceived and long established ideas.

What I really liked in the book were the areas related with the:
- epistemological framework of the conservative sensibility;
- balance of the 3 political powers (executive, legislative and judicial) and how they have been biased to the executive side and with that the distortion that we can currently see in the society and;
- The political economy chapter.

So why i did not rate it higher (more than 3)? Mainly due to 3 main reason, that are:
1 - the book is significantly biased to the US reality - very interesting, but sometimes limiting the full conservative spectrum;
2 - The book could have between 100 to 150 pages less, the arguments are properly disclosed, explained and rationale/critic presented, however sometimes this exercise is stretched beyond the value added that is generated by the additional pages;
3- The use of quotes to support the author argument are excessive and make the writing to lose momentum and sometimes disappear.

As a final overview, it was a pleasure its reading and time well invested.


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Sunday, January 19, 2020

Review: Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

I have finished reading this book more than a couple of weeks ago and although i liked it, it was a kind of disappointment.

Most probably that perception came from a very high expectations that i had when i started reading the book, due to a couple of podcast that i have heard with Annie that made me eager to read the book.

More than a couple of good insights related on:
- (i) how to think in probabilities (bets), instead of the deterministic way we usually do,
- (ii) how one should be able to distinguish the process of decision making (the thing we can improve based on a thorough analysis of our process and also by observing others) and the outcomes, as the latter can be a result of luck and a bad/biased/plain wrong decision making process (Nick the Greek example),
- (iii) how to overcome group biases and create a sound a diverse group to allow you to grow on your decision making process (this one, the one i liked it the most).

The poker analogies, in my opinion, were sometimes forced and with little insight and background, they were used from a 10.000 feet perspective and kind of a moto to introduce a subject, no real and concrete examples of decisions and strategies applied in the actual competitions that Annie was a key figure and connect them to the insights she was able to develop (positive or negative ones).

Most probably this high level perspective was a conscious choice of the writer in order to broaden the potential readers "audience", but kind of left me a "not so sweet" taste in my mouth after reading the book.

All in all, I still fo recommend its reading, specially for readers that would like to have a high level introduction to probabilities and behavior economics, kind of a trailer to future readings.





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