World Economic Outlook, October 2019 - IMF - Synchronized Slowdown

IMF published on October, 15th 2019 the World Economic Outlook, that reinforces the projections of a synchronized slowdown for the world economy.

My key takeaways:

• 2019 growth rate at 3% for 2019 (below PIIE forecast) and 3,4% for 2020 vs. 3,8% in 2018 due to trade barriers, low productive growth and aging demographics in advanced economies; 
• Advanced economies should slowdown to 1,7% and converging to their potential;
• Downside risk to this projection has significantly increased (trade barriers, geopolitical tensions and Brexit)
• 2020 is expected to go at a slighter better pace driven by emerging markets and base effect, i.e. that global trade activity and manufacturing is so slow in 2019 that 2020 is just picking-up to normal values resulting in a increase of the global growth;
• No recession is foreseen for the next 12 months;
• Trade tensions between US/China (self-inflicted) produced a toll of 0.8% on the world economy,
• Monetary easing in the main economies (USA/EU) is providing a tail wind to the world economy by 0,5%, although it creates additional risks as this preemptive accommodative monetary policy reduce space to fight a potential future recession
• If world economic growth drops to 2,5% it would imply that several advanced economies would be in a recession, thus there is no space to policy missteps;
• Monetary policy cannot not be the only answer to offset this downward trend and fiscal policy should be brought into the game in countries with budget space to accommodate such expansionary policies

World Economic Outlook, October 2019 - IMF

Ideas on solving the Pricing Puzzle - Based on a BCG article

Excellent BCG article on Pricing based on a Wealth management example, although in my opinion applicable to any industry.

What are my main conclusions:

1. Pricing (in all its dimensions) is a key component of a company strategy, not just a tactic lever one should/could use;
2. The top quartile pricing performers have significant better overall results
3. Smart pricing has 4 main components:
• Proper client segmentation (avoid broad-based segmentation on external characteristics easy to define, but on customer behavior and required service levels) ;
• Have a clear value proposition for each segment;
• Optimize the price structure for each segment
• Constantly reassess the above, making it a process and not a 1 time yearly event
• have a clear pricing strategy;
• favor quality over quantity - start small, test, pivot (if needed) and only then deploy. Each company, division, product has its own story;
• Obtain sponsorship within the organization and buy-in (quick wins are important)
• Pricing is a core strategic competence not just a tactic one within marketing
• Embrace Data Analytics - target pricing algorithms, pricing intelligence, etc
4. The Exhibit 6. is self-explanatory and is a great infographic over the key roles and responsibilities of any Pricing team.

Solving the Pricing Puzzle (aWealth management example)

O Crescimento Económico Português: Uma Visão sobre Questões Estruturais, Bloqueios e Reformas

Um livro que lerei no mais curto espaço de tempo para poder obter um retrato estrutural da economia portuguesa (perspetiva da oferta).

Logo que o tenha feito apresentarei um pequeno resumo com as principais ideias/conclusões que retive da sua leitura.

Para quem tenha interesse poderá obter o ebook no link infra.

Mais uma excelente iniciativa do Banco de Portugal

O Crescimento Económico Português: Uma Visão sobre Questões Estruturais, Bloqueios e Reformas

Relantización (significantiva) de la economia Española - Update 10/2019 CÍRCULO DE EMPRESARIOS

El Circulo de Empresarios ha presentado hoy su actualización de Octubre sobre la economía Española, demostrando una fuerte desaceleración (la tercera mayor de los países de OCDE).

Basado en esa información ha revisto en baja sus previsiones para el crecimiento de 2019 y 2020 significativamente, fruto de una desaceleración de la demanda interna,

Para obtener más información os aconsejo la consulta del update integral de su publicación (link abajo)

ASÍ ESTÁ… LA ECONOMÍA OCTUBRE 2019 - CÍRCULO DE EMPRESARIOS

Do managers add value?

The usefulness of managers

Interesting article from the Economist over the value that managers can bring into organizations, based on a study performed by Stephan Billinger and Stephen Rosenbaum*.

Based on the study:

• Managers bring value into an organization, as they promoted the collaboration within a group / achieved better results than a randomized control groups without managers;
• Manager incentives matter both for managers and for workers:
• Workers become suspicious of managers when incentives are included;
• Managers react positively to incentives, however incentives might exacerbate the agency problem and promote short-term behaviors (with the company and with its associates).

My conclusions:

• Managers within a proper framework add value to any organization;
• The incentives/rewards drive culture and behaviors, thus quintessential to a company success.

*Discretionary mechanisms and co-operation in hierarchies: An experimental study, Journal of Economic Psychology 74

Study on the reading list

Review: O Sonho do Celta

O Sonho do Celta by Mario Vargas Llosa
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

O Sonho do Celta apresenta e relata a história de Roger Casement de uma forma vívida, simples e acutilante.

Desconhecia totalmente quem era e a importância que teve na defesa dos direitos humanos no final do século XIX princípios do século XX e o impacto que teve na denuncia dos abusos realizados pelas potências colonizadoras (quer através da ocupação directa e gestão de territórios, quer através do exercício do poder económico)

O livro deu-me a conhecer quem foi e os feitos mais relevantes que realizou durante a sua vida e como lutou pelos seus ideais no Congo, na Amazónia e na Irlanda. Ressalto que este percurso não se deveu a ideias preconcebidas e definidas por uma filosofia estabelecida “ex-ante”, mas como consequência do sentir e viver as injustiças “in loco”, que tendo por base os seu valores morais e éticos o fizerem questionar a realidade em que vivia.

Adicionalmente, o livro também deu-me a conhecer parte da história da independência da Irlanda, que também desconhecia quase na sua totalidade.

O livro é um romance, com tudo o que isso implica, e não é um livro que pretende ser um relato histórico dos acontecimentos, está muito bem escrito e é um romance de leitura fácil e apelativa.


View all my reviews

Storytelling With Data

An interesting HBR video on how to put in practice storytelling with good examples, you just have to go through the first 30 seconds of the video and then it is worthwhile.
3 stages:

1. Setup
2. Conflict
3. Resolution (it does not mean to get it solved, but what was the outcome of the problem/conflict)

Afterwards, you can present your hypothesis and propose a solution

Storytelling With Data: A Good Charts Workbook Tool