Book Review – The Fifth Risk, by Michael Lewis | Rating 3/5 | Qualitative: I liked it

Book Review – The Fifth Risk, by Michael Lewis Rating: 3/5 Qualitative: I liked it "There is an upside to ignorance and a downside to knowledge. Knowledge makes life messier—it makes it a bit more difficult for a person who wishes to shrink the world into a worldview." The Fifth Risk carries all the hallmarks of a Michael Lewis book: sharply written, engaging, and built around a compelling story. As expected, it’s both entertaining and accessible, with a strong narrative arc that makes for a seamless reading experience. If I’m not mistaken, this is the third book I’ve read by Lewis (after Moneyball and Flash Boys), and I still have a couple more on my shelf. This one did not disappoint. The book explores the early ethos of the Trump administration, revealing—through personal stories and concrete examples—the widespread chaos, unpreparedness, and lack of competence that defined many parts of the transition & the ensuing 4 years. It portrays a culture marked by ignorance, arrogance, and a disregard for knowledge, values, and fundamental governance principles. Lewis structures the book around five main areas: the transition process itself, the titular “fifth risk” (tail risk), the degradation of public-sector talent (people risk), and the mismanagement and commodification of public data by private interests—often through crony capitalism. In essence, The Fifth Risk refers to the kind of organizational decay that happens when long-term risks are routinely met with short-term, simplistic solutions—solutions that are fast, easy, and often wrong. It’s what occurs when systems fail to attract and retain the best minds, when the wrong people are promoted or celebrated, and when technical knowledge and scientific rigor are steadily eroded. The result is a weakened capacity for innovation and long-term planning. At the root of this failure is a lack of vision, purpose, and investment in critical public functions. Lewis illustrates how decisions with lasting consequences were made by individuals who lacked the necessary skills, understanding, or ethical grounding to make them responsibly. The book walks us through specific examples across several departments, including the Department of Energy, the Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), showing the human and institutional costs of mismanagement. It’s worth noting that the book was written in 2018, yet it resonates deeply in 2025—perhaps even more so now. While one could argue that there is another side to this story, even if only half of what Lewis reports is accurate, the implications are sobering. The damage described may take years to fully undo. For anyone seeking to better understand the state of public institutions—and the broader risks that come from neglecting them—this book is essential reading.

- Pedro

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