Key Insights from McKinsey's Article on Trucking Macro-Trends

I recently came across a fascinating and insightful article by McKinsey about macro-trends in the trucking industry. Here are my key takeaways: Market Growth: The autonomous truck market could reach more than $600 billion globally by 2035, with China accounting for $327 billion, the US for $178 billion, and the EU for $112 billion. Addressing Key Challenges: Autonomous trucks are positioned to tackle critical industry challenges, including driver shortages and rising transportation costs. Key Use Cases: Initially, autonomous trucks are expected to focus on hub-to-hub routes, with future advancements enabling more complex operations like distribution center-to-distribution center transportation. Cost Savings: The potential reduction in Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) is significant—up to 42% for long distances (1,500–2,000 miles) and around 13% for shorter hauls (100–250 miles). (Remember to multiply miles by 1.6 to convert to kilometers!) New Business Models: The rise of autonomous trucking will also spur the development of new business models such as Driver-as-a-Service (DaaS) and Capacity-as-a-Service (CaaS). Happy reading! https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/will-autonomy-usher-in-the-future-of-truck-freight-transportation?stcr=F482C34899134541A930808F61EB61FE&cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck&hlkid=47a2dda332cb42f1a7a58469803e6c4d&hctky=13017974&hdpid=6032b0ff-8a06-49fd-8e31-7fcb3b329ca1

- Pedro

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AlphaGo - The Movie - Available on You Tube

A fantastic documentary about the early stages of DeepMind, btw their associates Demis Hassabis and John Jumper just received the Chemistry Nobel Prize for AlphaFold, is available on YouTube (link below). I highly recommend watching it! The 1-hour and 30-minute documentary gives incredible insight into the power of AI and AGI, specifically how it was applied to the game of Go. While the entire documentary is captivating, the highlight for me was Game 4, where Lee Sedol, the world champion of Go, made an astonishing 1-in-10,000 move to defeat AlphaGo (at the 1h07 mark). It’s fascinating to see how games, much like in the 17th century with the development of probability and statistics, were used as a testing ground for this cutting-edge technology back in 2016. If AI could perform at this level against a brilliant mind in such a complex game (winning 4-1), just imagine what it can do today, 8 years later, for you and your organization. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did. I’ll be watching it again soon with my kids! "...With more board configurations than there are atoms in the universe, the ancient Chinese game of Go has long been considered a grand challenge for artificial intelligence. On March 9, 2016, the worlds of Go and artificial intelligence collided in South Korea for an extraordinary best-of-five-game competition, coined The DeepMind Challenge Match. Hundreds of millions of people around the world watched as a legendary Go master took on an unproven AI challenger for the first time in history. Directed by Greg Kohs and with an original score by Academy Award nominee Hauschka, AlphaGo had its premiere at the Tribeca Film Festival. It has since gone on to win countless awards and near universal praise for a story that chronicles a journey from the halls of Oxford, through the backstreets of Bordeaux, past the coding terminals of DeepMind in London, and ultimately, to the seven-day tournament in Seoul. As the drama unfolds, more questions emerge: What can artificial intelligence reveal about a 3000-year-old game? What can it teach us about humanity? Best documentary winner: Denver International Film Festival (2017), Warsaw International Film Festival (2017), and Traverse City Film Festival (2017). Official selection at Tribeca Film Festival (2017), BFI London Film Festival (2017), and Critics' Choice Documentary Awards (2017). ..." https://youtu.be/WXuK6gekU1Y?si=gByIowKsxzwG0ysH

- Pedro

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“…If you have a dumb incentive system, you get dumb outcomes…”

“…If you have a dumb incentive system, you get dumb outcomes…” This famous quote by the late Charlie Munger remains as relevant as ever. In another brilliant article from the Bartleby column in The Economist, the author explores the challenges of designing incentive systems that lead to meaningful and desirable outcomes. The article highlights the difficulties in crafting systems that not only motivate but also avoid unintended consequences. There are 1.001 (like in Sherazade tale) ways an incentive system can go wrong, so it's important to take your time. Pilot programs and thorough reviews are crucial to ensure the system works as intended and doesn't produce harmful side effects—something the article explores in great detail. A must-read for anyone interested in management. Hope you enjoy it as much as I did. When workplace bonuses backfire https://www.economist.com/business/2024/10/10/when-workplace-bonuses-backfire from The Economist

- Pedro

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Useful tips series - Looking for a job? or are you preparing to hire someone? This post is for you

Looking for a job? or are you preparing to hire someone? This is for you. (useful tips series) Based on on GlassDoor these are the top 50 questions that the formers should prepare and the latters avoid :-): 1.What are your strengths? 2.What are your weaknesses? 3.Why are you interested in working for [insert company name here]? 4.Where do you see yourself in five years? Ten years? 5.Why do you want to leave your current company? 6.Why was there a gap in your employment between [insert date] and [insert date]? 7.What can you offer us that someone else can not? 8.What are three things your former manager would like you to improve on? 9.Are you willing to relocate? 10.Are you willing to travel? *(Post COVID-19) 11.Tell me about an accomplishment you are most proud of. 12.Tell me about a time you made a mistake. 13.What is your dream job? 14.How did you hear about this position? 15.What would you look to accomplish in the first 30 days/60 days/90 days on the job? 16.Discuss your resume. 17.Discuss your educational background. 18.Describe yourself. 19.Tell me how you handled a difficult situation. 20. Why should we hire you? 21.Why are you looking for a new job? 22.Would you work holidays/weekends? 23.How would you deal with an angry or irate customer? 24.What are your salary requirements? 25.Give a time when you went above and beyond the requirements for a project. 26.Who are our competitors? 27.What was your biggest failure? 28.What motivates you? 29.What’s your availability? 30.Who’s your mentor? 31.Tell me about a time when you disagreed with your boss. 32.How do you handle pressure? 33.What is the name of our CEO? 34.What are your career goals? 35.What gets you up in the morning? 36.What would your direct reports say about you? 37.What were your bosses’ strengths/weaknesses? 38.If I called your boss right now and asked him/her what is an area that you could improve on, what would he/she say? 39.Are you a leader or a follower? 40.What was the last book you read for fun? 41.What are your co-worker pet peeves? 42.What are your hobbies? 43.What is your favorite website? 44.What makes you uncomfortable? 45.What are some of your leadership experiences / What is your leadership style? 46.How would you fire someone? 47.What do you like the most and least about working in this industry? 48.Would you work 40+ hours a week? 49.What questions haven’t I asked you? 50.What questions do you have for me? Hope this list will be helpful either case :-) https://www.glassdoor.com/blog/common-interview-questions/?utm_source=lifecycle&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=postonboarding_us&utm_content=day_15_worklife_1&utm_messageid=&cm=EMAIL_LIFECYCLE

- Pedro

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Have you already baked in, at least as a likely scenario, a >$100 barrel of oil for at least the first half of 2025? If not, why?

Have you factored in the likelihood of oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel for at least the first half of 2025? If not, why? In my opinion, it's not a question of if but when, as a strong retaliation from Israel to the Iranian attack seems almost inevitable. The timing is uncertain—perhaps only after the U.S. elections—but even that is speculative, given the potential unpredictable impact on the election outcome as events unfold. You can't say this would come as a surprise, given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which is on the verge of a significant and impactful development. Great article from The Economist on this topic, which I highly recommend. Could war in the Gulf push oil to $100 a barrel? https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/10/07/could-war-in-the-gulf-push-oil-to-100-a-barrel from The Economist

- Pedro

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Contrary to previous beliefs and models, it seems Antarctica is undergoing significant changes.

Contrary to previous beliefs and models, it seems Antarctica is undergoing significant changes. Known as Earth's refrigerator, situated in a vast ocean and acting as a major carbon dioxide sink, Antarctica is now showing signs of thawing—potentially leading to major impacts on sea levels and global temperatures. It appears that Antarctica is starting to behave similarly to the Arctic, which is a major concern for the scientific community. Given the delicate balance of Earth's ecosystem, this development represents one of the worst-case scenarios and news we could face/receive. On the radar! Antarctica, Earth’s largest refrigerator, is defrosting https://www.economist.com/interactive/science-and-technology/2024/03/27/antarctica-earths-largest-refrigerator-is-defrosting from The Economist

- Pedro

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A começar um novo livro - Da Democracia na América, de Alexis de Tocqueville

A começar um novo livro! Da Democracia na América, de Alexis de Tocqueville, com prefácio de João Carlos Espada e tradução de Carlos Correia Monteiro de Oliveira. Aproveitando o facto de estarmos em período de eleições nos EUA, não há melhor momento para ler este clássico de ciência política. Avaliação da comunidade goodreads 4..05/5 (Qualitativo - Bom n=25.898) https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34928948-da-democracia-na-am-rica "... Pela primeira vez em português, eis o texto integral da mais famosa obra de Alexis de Tocqueville. Desde a sua primeira publicação, em 1835, que «Da Democracia na América» é uma obra indispensável para quem se interessa pela democracia ou se dedica ao seu estudo. Através de uma análise minuciosa que atravessa diversos domínios, como a História, a Filosofia, a Sociologia e a Ciência Política, Tocqueville oferece-nos um retrato lúcido, cada vez mais intemporal, da democracia americana de meados do século XIX: a sua organização política e administrativa, onde destaca, entre muitos outros aspectos, o sistema federal e as comunidades locais; a importância das boas leis, dos hábitos e costumes; os efeitos da moral e da religião; as consequências do desenvolvimento comercial e industrial... Mas vai mais longe, e, com enorme acuidade, analisa também o homem democrático, as suas tendências e paixões e a sua complexa relação com a liberdade e a igualdade. No fundo, e tendo sempre presente o seu país de origem, Tocqueville está também a interrogar-se sobre as razões por que são tão evidentes as diferenças entre os regimes democráticos francês e americano, por que, na América, a sociedade democrática é liberal, e, em contraposição, a democracia francesa demonstra tantas dificuldades em manter um regime político de liberdade. ..."

- Pedro

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