Blog to discuss business trends through the lenses of finance and economics and share ideas/books/articles/podcasts that we find interesting.
9/03/2024
“…It seems that corporate leaders do not owe their career advancement to sophisticated economic analysis….”
A very interesting article on how poorly senior leaders understand inflation and its impact on their business. “…It seems that corporate leaders do not owe their career advancement to sophisticated economic analysis….” Leaders anchor their inflation expectation more on what they hear or read on the news/media than on hard data and modeling based: input prices forecasts (raws, conversion, labor, etc…). willingness to pay from the customers to your industry products or services and directly to your company within the industry. depending on the industry (oligopoly, perfect competition, etc…) you need to understand the competition pricing strategies and how will they react to these key variables. By doing this they are usually behind the curve and reactive to a dynamic environment. Going back to basics, most of the leaders do not know: the past year inflation value (country or industry), the target inflation rate from the Fed and ECB (the 2%) and what are the actual key refence interest rates (monetary policy) applied by these entities in their market. Know your numbers, understand how they impact your industry, your company business and the valuation of your company. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/08/15/why-companies-get-inflation-wrong
- Pedro
Read on Substack9/01/2024
Using Grocery Data for Credit Decisions
An interesting new paper that has caught my attention (for now only at abstract level :-)). How can you have a well-known problem and how can you address it from a completely different perspective in order to provide a potential sound solution or at least to improve an existing solution. Using Grocery Data for Credit Decisions Abstract Many consumers across the world struggle to gain access to credit because of their lack of credit scores. This paper explores the potential of a new alternative data source, grocery transaction data, for evaluating consumers’ creditworthiness. Our analysis takes advantage of a unique, individual-level match of credit card data and supermarket loyalty card data. By developing credit scoring algorithms that either exclude or include grocery data, we illustrate both the incremental value of grocery data for credit decisions and its boundary conditions. We demonstrate that signals from grocery data can improve credit approval decisions, particularly for individuals who lack traditional credit scores. Furthermore, as a consumer establishes a relationship with lenders and builds a credit history, the marginal value of incorporating grocery data diminishes. These findings highlight the potential of grocery data in informing credit decisions and, consequently, in enabling financial institutions to extend credit to consumers who lack traditional credit scores. https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/mnsc.2022.02364
- Pedro
Read on SubstackInterview with Hannah Arendt (1964) a must see!
Interview with Hannah Arendt (1964) a must see. There are some that are truly special… Hannah is one of such cases. Enjoy! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVSRJC4KAiE&t=3027s
- Pedro
Read on SubstackWould you like to visualize the water cycle?
Would you like to visualize the water cycle? Well look/search no further, this website shows you the probable path of a rain drop everywhere in the world ends up in the sea. Enjoy! https://river-runner-global.samlearner.com/
- Pedro
Read on SubstackDemocracy and Mathematics ... and why it matters
Democracy It seems so simple at the moment we select a candidate… is just to cast and count the votes…not so simple (just look at UK). A great video on how we count the votes impacts the representativeness of your vote and how it can set the tone for the way the candidates approach their campaigns, do politics and deploy policy (couple that with Game Theory). Sometimes we just need to look at the basics, the incentives and the outcomes and small changes (although not perfect) can make such a positive difference while living a democratic regime. Why is this topic not discussed at all and it seems so impactful? https://youtube.com/watch?v=qf7ws2DF-zk&si=cK_Wl7p4yBtBHpLP
- Pedro
Read on SubstackA great viz on what is the knowledge and hard skills needed to become a DataScientist.
A great viz on what is the knowledge and hard skills needed to become a DataScientist. I’m not one and do not want to be one, but there are some hard skills and knowledge that I already have, other I’m actively working on, and some still on the pipeline, that I think are mandatory for my current work and future work. Most probably will not use the knowledge and tools myself, but need to know what I can expect, what i can ask and have an informed / educated discussion with a DataScientist. https://x.com/hashtag/Infographic?src=hashtag_click by https://x.com/hashtag/Infographic?src=hashtag_click #Infographic by @DataScienceDojo
- Pedro
Read on Substack