2/3 chances that Trump will win this year election. Are you prepared?

Based on the Economist model there a 2 in every 3 chances that Trump will win the US November’s election. Thus, have you at least embedded in your 2025 scenarios for the strong likelihood that this materializes? There are huge macro implications, just to name a few with direct impacts in Europe: increased protectionism and reduced free trade between US and all the other major players namely China and the spillovers for the other regions namely Europe, Conflict in Ukraine and Nato future, paramount for European stability, Increased incentives & protectionism to the chip industry. Dismantling of WTO and its institutions. Those are not minor impacts and are worthwhile at least to think about them by strategic teams and prepare your organization. https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/06/12/five-months-out-donald-trump-has-a-clear-lead

- Pedro

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Podcast Recommendation - Foundering by Bloomberg on OpenAI and Sam Altman

A great podcast series from Bloomberg - Foundering, the series 5 is on OpenAI and & Sam Altman. Strongly recommend it. Will now go through the other 4 series already available as the topics look very interesting. https://open.spotify.com/episode/6SjK4lTFVwQpUSI9UADcTb?si=52acc437efa245d3

- Pedro

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"...Those who love books know that a book is anything but a commodity..."

"It is foolish to think that you have to read all the books you buy, as it is foolish to criticize those who buy more books than they will ever be able to read. It would be like saying that you should use all the cutlery or glasses or screwdrivers or drill bits you bought before buying new ones. "There are things in life that we need to always have plenty of supplies, even if we will only use a small portion. "If, for example, we consider books as medicine, we understand that it is good to have many at home rather than a few: when you want to feel better, then you go to the 'medicine closet' and choose a book. Not a random one, but the right book for that moment. That's why you should always have a nutrition choice! "Those who buy only one book, read only that one and then get rid of it. They simply apply the consumer mentality to books, that is, they consider them a consumer product, a good. Those who love books know that a book is anything but a commodity." Umberto Eco

- Pedro

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Leadership Strategy and Tactics by Jocko Willink - added to my wish-list

The Blinks for the book Leadership Strategy and Tactics by Jocko Willink caught my attention and I have added to my wish list. “…Leadership Strategy and Tactics (2020) teaches you how to take the skills of a high-functioning Navy SEAL team and apply them to your workplace. You’ll learn about practices such as Extreme Ownership, and find out why humility is better than arrogance. These tips will help you to leave your ego at the door and to remember that your team’s success should always come before personal success. …” https://www.blinkist.com/books/leadership-strategy-and-tactics-en?utm_source=bk_ios&utm_medium=bk_referral&utm_campaign=book%253Aplayer&utm_content=5e590d886cee07000673bbd7&referral_token=b1174473fb42

- Pedro

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Euro'24 & the fundamentals

The Euro’24 started for the joy of millions of fans (including myself), but one cannot forget and push to a far corner of your mind, due to the lapse of time, what is currently going on in Europ/Ukraine. This video from Ukraine Football national team is a good reminder of what is happening for more than 2 years. https://x.com/uafukraine/status/1801319839153459390

- Pedro

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Summer readings I - Recommended by Mckinsey

5 books recommended by Mckinsey on strategy and leadership. All added to the wish list and library, you might find 1 or 2 that might be of interest. Rewired: The McKinsey Guide to Outcompeting in the Age of Digital and AI by Eric Lamarre (Autor), Kate Smaje, Rodney Zemmel Power to the Middle: Why Managers Hold the Keys by imr Bill ane Schaninger, Bryan Hancock CEO Excellence: The Six Mindsets That Distinguish the Best Leaders from the Rest by Carolyn Dewar (Autor), Scott Keller, Vikram Malhotra The Titanium Economy: How Industrial Technology Can Create a Better, Faster, Stronger America by Asutosh Padhi, Gaurav Batra (Autor), Nick Santhanam Deliberate Calm: How to Learn and Lead in a Volatile World byJacqueline Brassey, Aaron De Smet, Michiel Kruyt Happy readings https://email.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/themes/read-like-a-ceo?__hScId__=v70000018ffef379988a2bb2f4bbe5be50&__hRlId__=ec1024af61f44d710000021ef3a0bccf&__hDId__=ec1024af-61f4-4d71-80c9-f1a9567d0e2e&__hSD__=d3d3Lm1ja2luc2V5LmNvbQ==&cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck&hlkid=3df4d66b483a4a9fa3f9625f72d2d6f6&hctky=3011708&hdpid=ec1024af-61f4-4d71-80c9-f1a9567d0e2e

- Pedro

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Chinese proverb

There's an old Chinese proverb that goes something like this, If you want to get knowledge, add something every day. If you want to achieve wisdom, subtract something every day

- Pedro

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