Round-up of the April'24 WEO - a podcast with Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

To round-up the April’24 WEO from IMF a great podcast with its chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, where he goes through the key take-aways of the report (already presented in a couple of previous notes) and how the report in itself is generated. The soundbites of the report: Soft landing is here (against all odds), Higher divergence between advanced economies and emerging economies and even withing the advanced economies US. vs all the others - the regional reports thus are of mandatory reading, Inflation is being tamed, Need coordinate the fiscal policy (consolidation urgently needed) and monetary policy (where the is the opportunity to be more expansive with an eye on the inflation evolution). Chapter 3 of the report where it tries to explain why the prospect of growth are going down → Chapter 3. Slowdown in Global Medium-Term Growth: What Will It Take to Turn the Tide? Good 29 minutes investment with good insights. The World Economic Outlook is more than projected growth rates. The research behind those projections tells the story of how 190 countries, slowly but steadily, found their way through the fog of the past few years to emerge a testament to the resilience of the global economy. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas is IMF Chief Economist and brings together the multitude of analytics, data and insight that provide the signposts. In this podcast, Gourinchas says while the fears of a global recession have not materialized, the path ahead is not without obstacles. https://podcasts.apple.com/es/podcast/imf-podcasts/id1029134681?i=1000654331554

- Pedro

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Starting a MasterClass with Bob Iger on Strategy and Leadership

Starting this MasterClass. Eager to learn about Bob’s view on strategy and leadership, suspect that will not learn a lot on succession planning! :-) In his 45-year career in media, Bob Iger has never shied away from change. That quality has served him well at The Walt Disney Company, where he’s helped one of the world’s most beloved and established brands evolve without losing any of its magic. As chairman and CEO of Disney, he’s helped shape the company’s strategic vision and guided it through some of the boldest moves and biggest acquisitions in media today. In addition to the acquisitions of Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, and 21st Century Fox, he helped expand the company’s content across new and diverse platforms, embracing direct-to-consumer technology. During his tenure at Disney, the company has been widely recognized as an industry leader, landing a place on “best-of” lists in most major business publications. Bob himself has been named one of the “World’s Most Powerful People,” a “Top Gun CEO,” and one of Institutional Investor magazine’s “Best CEOs” for four years total so far. In Bob’s MasterClass, learn the Disney CEO’s strategies for evolving a brand in an age of disruption and leading with integrity, courage, and optimism. Through case studies and lessons from Bob’s 45 years in media, learn the strategy behind some of Disney’s boldest moves and biggest acquisitions, including Marvel, Pixar, and Lucasfilm. Bob will teach you his take on the art of negotiation, risk management, and evolving a brand. He’ll also share his core tenets of leadership and teach you how to embrace change and take smarter risks so you can reap greater rewards in your company and career. In this online class, you’ll learn about: • Risk management • Focusing your company strategy • How and why Disney acquired Pixar and Marvel • How to evolve a brand • Anticipating what consumers want • Leadership characteristics • Effective time management • Managing industry disruption • Navigating complex deals • The art of negotiation

How Companies Got So Good at M&A by Bain & Company

Very interesting article by Bain & Company on how companies got better in their M&A activity. Agree with the main conclusions and take-aways why M&A is generating more value to the acquirer (better due-diligence, broader scope, more small deals, avoid big one-shots, a derivative of corporate strategy, creation of dedicated teams for M&A and integrations phases, etc...).The only question mark is the control groups of graphic 1, are we comparing similar companies or the ones with inactive or infrequent are companies that have a worse starting point, thus no access to funding to perform M&A, thus naturally with lower TSR on the long-run? Were the control groups streamlined so we are comparing properly the 3 groups, i.e. sound companies that could have done M&A and decided not to do it? https://www.bain.com/insights/how-companies-got-so-good-at-m-and-a/?utm_medium=social_advocacy&utm_source=LinkedIn-dysi&utm_content=8a26d0bd-fd5d-4772-9658-114e2695efde&utm_term=87726

- Pedro

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Chess - Daily last 30 days evolution - Road to 1500 rating

Chess - Daily Evolution - Road to 1500 rating Last 30 days up 16 in the rating for daoly games and now have a 1038 rating. Won 4games and lost 2!

- Pedro

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Chess - Rapid Evolution - Road to 1000 rating

Chess - Rapid Evolution - Road to 1000 rating Last 30 days up 198 in the rating for rapid games and know have a 647 rating. Won 15 games and lost 3! Still in the low hanging fruit!

- Pedro

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S&P 500 with a CAPE at 34 - Shouldn't it make you stop and think?

When you have a CAPE ratio of 34 vs a median of 16 since 1880 shouldn’t you think the market is overheated? i.e. when the share prices are 34x more than inflation adjusted 10 years average of earnings, does not feel expensive? I definitely do think so, especially when the periods that we had such extreme outlier or higher, beginning of 2000 and in 2021, preceded significant market crashes! This is important not only for the individual investors, but also for all the M&A activities this are currently going on! Of course, the music is still playing, and no one wants to leave the dancing floor, but we all know that usually who foots such kind of bill is not professional investor, or at least at length, and on the M&A side are the management teams that need to generate value to justify such high valuations! The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham has several insights about times like this one (a must read book). I will wait for it to burst and start my investor endeavors when it happens. This article from the Economist is a great read on the subject! What is your opinion? “…Reversion to anywhere near the mean would take an earth-shaking drop. Worse, the high cape makes such a fall more likely, by giving investors reason to dump low-yielding stocks. …” More on the CAPE ratio below llink. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cape-ratio.asp How far could America’s stockmarket fall? https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/04/25/how-far-could-americas-stockmarket-fall from The Economist

- Pedro

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Emperor penguin chicks jumping off a 50-foot cliff by National Geographic

Sometimes you just need one to the lead the way. Amazing video of the Emperor’s penguin chicks jumping off a 50-foot cliff. Some of them are forced, but plenty take the dive by free will. What makes them do it? The importance of a committed leader for some or the audacity of the ones without any consciousness :-) Invest 4 minutes of time and enjoy! https://youtu.be/4PwDFddpo4c?si=Si54asdt2DPbpmCf

- Pedro

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