1/29/2023

Homenagem à CatalunhaHomenagem à Catalunha by George Orwell
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

Um retrato pessoal da participação de George Orwell (Arthur Blair) na guerra civil espanhola (finais de 1936 a 1937).

Marcou-me a sua tentativa de descrever os factos de uma forma o mais objectiva possível, a narração do quotidiano nas trincheiras e o sentimento de impotência, o inimigo que numa guerra civil na maioria das vezes é uma questão quase arbitraria de onde se estava quando esta eclodiu, as divergências das forças republicanas socialistas vs. Marxistas vs. Anarquistas, a quantidade de pessoas que na altura estavam dispostas a lutar e morrer numa guerra a milhares de kms de distância para defender ideais políticos e de sociedade em que acreditavam.

No final e no meio de todas as pequenas lutas que existiam no lado republicano, existe como pano de fundo um profundo respeito e admiração da forma de viver e abordar a vida do povo espanhol, que acredito, que ainda com bastantes matizes, ainda perdure nos dias de hoje.

Aconselho a sua leitura pela qualidade da escrita mas também para todos aqueles que querem conhecer mais sobre a guerra civil espanhola e dos espanhóis enquanto Nação.


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12/04/2022

Belt and Road: A Chinese World OrderBelt and Road: A Chinese World Order by Bruno Maçães
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

A good and eye-opening perspective on the Chinese Belt and Road geopolitical strategy.

A geopolitical challenge to the status-quo order we are seeing unfolding in our lifetimes.

Do recommend its reading.



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Politics and the English LanguagePolitics and the English Language by George Orwell
My rating: 2 of 5 stars

Read this book based on Economist's recommendation on how to become a better writer, it entails 5 small essays on writing, writers and politics. Liked it, but was expecting something different.

A couple of excerpts i really liked with good advice:

"A scrupulous writer, in every sentence that he writes, will ask himself at least four questions, thus: What am I trying to say? What words will express it? What image or idiom will make it clearer? Is this image fresh enough to have an effect? And he will probably ask himself two more: Could I put it more shortly? Have I said anything that is avoidably ugly? But you are not obliged to go to all this trouble."

Basic Rules one should follow
" (i) Never use a metaphor, simile or other figure of speech which you are used to seeing in print. (ii) Never use a long word where a short one will do. (iii) If it is possible to cut a word out, always cut it out. (iv) Never use the passive where you can use the active. (v) Never use a foreign phrase, a scientific word or a jargon word if you can think of an everyday English equivalent. (vi) Break any of these rules sooner than say anything barbarous."

George Orwell. Politics and the English Language. Distributed Proofreaders Canada. Edición de Kindle.

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Por Quem os Sinos DobramPor Quem os Sinos Dobram by Ernest Hemingway
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

Muito bom. Recomendo a todos a sua leitura.

Abriu-me a porta, de um forma surpreendente, da Guerra Civil Espanhola que espero explorar rapidamente e ao mesmo tempo uma historia tão actual tendo em consideracão a realidade em que vivemos na Europa e no Mundo.

"Nenhum homem é uma ilha, isolado em si mesmo; todos são parte do continente, uma parte de um todo. Se um torrão de terra for levado pelas águas até o mar, a Europa ficará diminuída, como se fosse um promontório, como se fosse o solar de teus amigos ou o teu próprio; a morte de qualquer homem me diminui, porque sou parte do género humano. E por isso não perguntes por quem os sinos dobram; eles dobram por ti". John Donne

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Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About The World - And Why Things Are Better Than You ThinkFactfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About The World - And Why Things Are Better Than You Think by Hans Rosling
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

Great book that shows the importance of data and how you should base your actions based on sound and correct data and how you should avoid the recurring bias/instincts while doing so.

Hans took macro facts and trends to exemplify the most common mistakes, but those could be applied into your daily life (professional and personal).

Common bias to be aware of:
1. Gap Instinct (beware of averages, extremes and perspectives)
2. Negative Instinct (distinguish between level and direction, that good news is not news - specially gradual improvements, more bad news does not mean more suffering or bad trends, beware of rosy pasts)
3. Straight line instinct - the worldly trends are not linear
4. Fear instinct - be afraid of the dangerous events, know how to calculate the risk (danger * exposure), avoid making decision when with a fear mindset
5. Size instinct - get all things in proportion and comparable, define benchmarks
6.Generalization Instinct - beware of using categories/generic groups to explain events/situations, look for differences, similarities within and across, majorities and vivid examples to explain complex realities
7-Destiny Instinct - Changes might be happening slowly, but their are happening, update you knowledge, beware of cultural changes
8- Single perspective Instinct - broaden your perspectives, test your ideas, avoid hammer and nails approach, trust and look at the numbers when they explain the story, beware of simple ideas and solutions
9- Blame instinct - trying to find culprits instead of causes, look for systems that underpin success instead of heroes
10 - Urgency Instinct - beware of the need of urgent and immediate decisions, take your time, require the minimum data, beware of fortune tellers, the future cannot be precisely defined, work in scenarios, be aware of drastic actions.

Strongly advise its reading.

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Understanding Money MechanicsUnderstanding Money Mechanics by Robert P. Murphy
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

A great book on money (and consequently on inflation). A wonderful review on the basic concepts or an easy introduction for a lay person on the subject.

Introduces or revisits the Austrian economic theory of Credit Circulation Theory of Trade Cycle, Equation of Exchange, Keynesian Approach, the Market Monetarists and Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). On top it redirects you and provides relevant bibliography in case you want to get a more sophisticated knowledge in any of the previously mentioned subjects.

Highly recommend it, especially on the times we are currently living.

My highlighted Quotes:

"...A formal definition for money is that it’s a universally accepted medium of exchange. [...] medium of exchange to possess the following qualities: ease of transport, durability, divisibility, homogeneity, and convenient size and weight for the intended transactions..."


"...Among the foreign coins circulating among the American colonists, the most popular was the Spanish silver dollar. This made the term “dollar” common in the colonies, explaining why the Continental currency was denominated in “dollars” and why the US federal government—newly established under the US Constitution—would choose “dollar” as the country’s official unit of currency. ..."

"...Inflation, as this term was always used everywhere and especially in this country [the United States], means increasing the quantity of money and bank notes in circulation and the quantity of bank deposits subject to check. But people today use the term “inflation” to refer to the phenomenon that is an inevitable consequence of inflation, that is the tendency of all prices and wage rates to rise. The result of this deplorable confusion is that there is no term left to signify the cause of this rise in prices and wages. There is no longer any word available to signify the phenomenon that has been, up to now, called inflation. It follows that nobody cares about inflation in the traditional sense of the term. As you cannot talk about something that has no name, you cannot fight it. Those who pretend to fight inflation are in fact only fighting what is the inevitable consequence of inflation, rising prices. ..."

"..It is standard for economists to handle the relationship between money and prices using the equation of exchange, credited to Irving Fisher, which is nowadays11 often written as: MV = PQ where M is the quantity of money in the economy, V is the “velocity of circulation,” meaning the average number of times a unit of money “changes hands” during the time period in question,12 P is the “average price level,” and Q is the total quantity of real output produced during the period. ..."

"...Milton Friedman is often quoted as saying, “Inflation is always and every-where a monetary phenomenon.”..."

"...At this time, let us emphasize the important point that government cannot be in any way a fountain of resources; all that it spends, all that it distributes in largesse, it must first acquire in revenue, i.e., it must first extract from the “private sector.”..."

"...After explaining that government spending programs merely return resources to the private sector that had previously been taken from it, the economist will inform the public that there are three methods by which this taking occurs: taxation, borrowing, and inflation. The economist will often add that government borrowing can be considered merely deferred taxation, while inflation is merely hidden taxation. ..."

"...the printing press allows the government to get away with spending that the public would never agree to explicitly pay for, through straightforward tax hikes. ..."


Murphy, Robert. Understanding Money Mechanics. Ludwig von Mises Institute. Kindle Edition.

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How Spies Think: Ten Lessons in IntelligenceHow Spies Think: Ten Lessons in Intelligence by David Omand
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

Interesting book on the art of intelligence.

The part one (chapter 1 to 4) is where I found more value mainly on:
1- The framework presented SEES:
a) Situational Awareness - what is happening and what we face now
b) Explanation - why are we seeing what we do and the motivation of those involved
c) Estimates and Forecasts - how events may unfold under different assumptions
d) Strategic Notice - of futures issues that may come to challenge us in the longer term

2 - The relevance of Bayesian thinking in the overall framework, mainly on first 3 stages

3- The choice of facts is not neutral, nor do facts speak for themselves

4- Importance to express predictions and forecasts as probabilities

5- The strategic Risk Equation - Risk = likelihood * vulnerability * impact

Relevant Quotes:

" As a general rule it is the explanatory hypothesis with the least evidence against it that is most likely to be the best one for us to adopt. The logic is that one strong contrary result can disconfirm a hypothesis. Apparently confirmatory evidence on the other hand can still be consistent with other hypotheses being true..."

"...reducing the ignorance of the decisionmaker does not necessarily mean simplifying..."

"...For analytic thinkers the equivalent ability is tolerating the pain and confusion of not knowing, rather than imposing ready-made or omnipotent certainties on ambiguous situations or emotional challenges..."

"...where there is a choice of explanation apply Occam's Razor (named after the fourteenth-century Franciscan friar William of Occam) and favor the explanation that does not rely on complex, improbable or numerous assumptions..."



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