How Spies Think: Ten Lessons in Intelligence by David Omand
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

Interesting book on the art of intelligence.

The part one (chapter 1 to 4) is where I found more value mainly on:
1- The framework presented SEES:
a) Situational Awareness - what is happening and what we face now
b) Explanation - why are we seeing what we do and the motivation of those involved
c) Estimates and Forecasts - how events may unfold under different assumptions
d) Strategic Notice - of futures issues that may come to challenge us in the longer term

2 - The relevance of Bayesian thinking in the overall framework, mainly on first 3 stages

3- The choice of facts is not neutral, nor do facts speak for themselves

4- Importance to express predictions and forecasts as probabilities

5- The strategic Risk Equation - Risk = likelihood * vulnerability * impact

Relevant Quotes:

" As a general rule it is the explanatory hypothesis with the least evidence against it that is most likely to be the best one for us to adopt. The logic is that one strong contrary result can disconfirm a hypothesis. Apparently confirmatory evidence on the other hand can still be consistent with other hypotheses being true..."

"...reducing the ignorance of the decisionmaker does not necessarily mean simplifying..."

"...For analytic thinkers the equivalent ability is tolerating the pain and confusion of not knowing, rather than imposing ready-made or omnipotent certainties on ambiguous situations or emotional challenges..."

"...where there is a choice of explanation apply Occam's Razor (named after the fourteenth-century Franciscan friar William of Occam) and favor the explanation that does not rely on complex, improbable or numerous assumptions..."



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