10/29/2023

Israel / Hamas conflit 10/2023

Une intervention claire, mature et équilibrée. L'usage de la force ne fonctionne que lorsqu'il sert une stratégie politique pour résoudre une situation aussi complexe que ce conflit. 

https://www.youtube.com/live/Mpq5IxdDeqA?si=tBFTfMq6Wkt56OZG




 https://substack.com/@pedrosantospinto/note/c-42663771?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=13q5fd

Great complement to the book I’m reading from Nate Silver!

 Great complement to the book I’m reading from Nate Silver!



https://substack.com/@pedrosantospinto/note/c-42655721?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=13q5fd


10/28/2023


https://open.substack.com/pub/equityriskpremium/p/pricing-intelligence?
r=13q5fd&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web


Heineken "Worlds apart" by Publicis London, bridging between people


Brilliant experiment!

Something to ponder specially nowadays-



#dei #inclusion #diversity #freethinking

Beyond Euclid - #102


Always worth reading! Highly recommend it every week.



Beyond Euclid -  #102 - Beyond Euclid (substack.com)


#steam #newsletter






Are America’s CEOs overpaid? - by the Economist

 Long gone are the days of Drucker's recommendation:

“I have often advised managers that a 20-to-1 salary ratio is the limit beyond which they cannot go if they don’t want resentment and falling morale to hit their companies”. - Drucker

My opinion (as almost in everything) is that the right price should be attached to the value that can be created (at relative terms vs. the best alternative). So, it is the avg $14m/year fair?


Depends on the value that is generated by each in relative terms and as long there is a competitive market behind, otherwise it could be considered rent-seeking 😀. Leave it up to you to assess!

Recommend its reading!



#compensation #finance #corporate

Library - New Book

Added to the library The Power of US



3/12/2023

Pedro Pinto's Reviews > Storytelling with Data: A Data Visualization Guide for Business Professionals

Storytelling with Data: A Data Visualization Guide for Business ProfessionalsStorytelling with Data: A Data Visualization Guide for Business Professionals by Cole Nussbaumer Knaflic
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

An absolute MUST READ for everyone that has to convey information and to make it actionable.

If you want to improve your competences to disclose data and turn into information and actionable insights, you cannot miss this book, that take you in a journey on how to improve your "game".

The gold nuggets I took for myself while reading this book are the following:
1. The need to clearly segregate the exploratory phase from the explanatory phase of your work (simple but very insightful for me).
2. Clearly know before you start the variables and features that should be taken into consideration, knowing that you key goal is the action you want to promote or insights you want to convey.
3. the pivotal importance to choose the correct visual representation to convey your message~.
4. promote the usage of graphs (always go for the visual system of your audience vs. verbal system)
5. clutter in your presentation is your worst enemy
6.focus the attention of your audience attention by using the 3 types of memory (Iconic, Short, and Log-term) and by deploying preattentive visual attributes on text and graphs
7. use key concepts of design (affordance, accessibility, aesthetics, acceptance) in order to improve the chances to achieve your goals.
8. should actively manage the: graph choices, data order, understand where the audience eyes are drawn to, usage of strategies to emphasize and de-emphasize components, usage of color, thickness and size, alignment and position, titling and annotation.
9. know and use the key characteristics of a good story and it is structured and make it as clear as possible - horizontal and vertical logic.

My highlighted quotes:
1. "...Being able to visualize data and tell stories with it is key to turning it into information that can be used to drive better decision making..."
2. "...An effective data visualization can mean the difference between success and failure when it comes to communicating the findings of your study, raising money for your nonprofit, presenting to your board, or simply getting your point across to your audience. ..."
3. "...Those hired into analytical roles typically have quantitative backgrounds that suit them well for the other steps (finding the data, pulling it together, analyzing it, building models), but not necessarily any formal training in design to help them when it comes to the communication of the analysis—which, by the way, is typically the only part of the analytical process that your audience ever sees. ..."
4."...Exploratory analysis is what you do to understand the data and figure out what might be noteworthy or interesting to highlight to others ..."
5. "...explanatory (taking the time to turn the data into information that can be consumed by an audience: the two pearls)..."
6. "...You should always want your audience to know or do something..."
7. "...The storyboard establishes a structure for your communication. It is a visual outline of the content you plan to create. ..."
8. "...To reduce this mental processing, we can use color saturation to provide visual cues, helping our eyes and brains more quickly target the potential points of interest. ..."
9. "...graphs interact with our visual system, which is faster at processing information. ..."
10. "...you should avoid: pie charts, donut charts, 3D, and secondary y-axes..."
11. "...every single element you add to that page or screen takes up cognitive load on the part of your audience—in other words, takes them brain power to process. ..."
12. "...In general, identify anything that isn’t adding informative value—or isn’t adding enough informative value to make up for its presence—and remove those things. Identifying and eliminating such clutter is the focus of this chapter. ..."
13. "... “there is still some space left on that page, so let’s add something there,” or worse, “there is still some space left on that page, so let’s add more data.” No! Never add data just for the sake of adding data—only add data with a thoughtful and specific purpose in mind! ..."
14. "...Without other visual cues, most members of your audience will start at the top left of your visual or slide and scan with their eyes in zigzag motions across the screen or page. ..."
15. "...Form follows function [...] we first want to think about what it is we want our audience to be able to do with the data (function) and then create a visualization (form) that will allow for this with ease. ..."
16."... “You know you’ve achieved perfection, not when you have nothing more to add, but when you have nothing to take away” (Saint-Exupery, 1943). ..."
17. "...In data visualization—and communicating with data in general—spending time to make our designs aesthetically pleasing can mean our audience will have more patience with our visuals, increasing our chance of success for getting our message across. ..."
18. "...A good story grabs your attention and takes you on a journey, evoking an emotional response..."
19. "...two ways to persuade people: The first is conventional rhetoric[...] It’s an intellectual process. But it is problematic, because while you’re trying to persuade your audience, they are arguing with you in their heads. [...] The second way to persuade, according to McKee, is through story. Stories unite an idea with an emotion, arousing the audience’s attention and energy. Because it requires creativity, telling a compelling story is harder than conventional rhetoric. ..."
20. "...Keep it simple. Edit ruthlessly. Be authentic. Don’t communicate for yourself—communicate for your audience. ..."
21. "...The more the information is repeated or used, the more likely it is to eventually end up in long-term memory, or to be retained..."
22. "...The idea behind horizontal logic is that you can read just the slide title of each slide throughout your deck and, together, these snippets tell the overarching story you want to communicate..."
23. "...Vertical logic means that all information on a given slide is self-reinforcing...."

View all my reviews

Good Strategy Bad Strategy: The Difference and Why It Matters - Review

Good Strategy Bad Strategy: The Difference and Why It MattersGood Strategy Bad Strategy: The Difference and Why It Matters by Richard P. Rumelt
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

It has been a while since I read a strategy book, a topic I have always liked but the last books/articles i have read felt they did not add that much.

However, I have seen this book recommend several times by different persons/authors and reluctantly decided to give it a try (must confess i bought the book more than 1 year ago ...) and i did not regret any single page.

This book is one of the best i have read on this subject and strongly recommend it to all that are interested on the topic. It helps that i agree with the vision that the author has on what is strategy and how one should approach and deploy it.

It was really close to my heart the following key messages:

1. the relevance of having a good STRATEGY (having into consideration how often we see the absence of strategy or even worst bad strategy in several organizations)

2. the concept of sources of power that underpin your strategy (leverage, proximate objectives, chain-link systems, using design, focus, growth, using dynamics, inertia and entropy)

3. the kernel of good strategy - 1. Establish a correct diagnosis; 2. Define a clear guiding policy; 3. Deploy coherent actions

4. Think strategy like a science - Observe, raise the relevant Questions; generate alternative hypothesis; run Experiment; analyze and draw conclusions and, Report conclusion and act upon them.

My highlighted quotes from the book (24!):

1. "...A good strategy does more than urge us forward toward a goal or vision. A good strategy honestly acknowledges the challenges being faced and provides an approach to overcoming them. And the greater the challenge, the more a good strategy focuses and coordinates efforts to achieve a powerful competitive punch or problem-solving effect. ..."

2. "... A hallmark of true expertise and insight is making a complex subject understandable. A hallmark of mediocrity and bad strategy is unnecessary complexity—a flurry of fluff masking an absence of substance. ..."

3."...If you fail to identify and analyze the obstacles, you don’t have a strategy. Instead, you have either a stretch goal, a budget, or a list of things you wish would happen. ..."

4. "...Business leaders know their organizations should have a strategy. Yet many express frustration with the whole process of strategic planning. The reason for this dissatisfaction is that most corporate strategic plans are simply three-year or five-year rolling budgets combined with market share projections. Calling a rolling budget of this type a “strategic plan” gives people false expectations that the exercise will somehow result in a coherent strategy. ..."

5."...You can call these annual exercises “strategic planning” if you like, but they are not strategy. They cannot deliver what senior managers want: a pathway to substantially higher performance. To obtain higher performance, leaders must identify the critical obstacles to forward progress and then develop a coherent approach to overcoming them. This may require product innovation, or new approaches to distribution, or a change in organizational structure. Or it may exploit insights into the implications of changes in the environment—in technology, consumer tastes, laws, resource prices, or competitive behavior. ..."

6. "...To help clarify this distinction it is helpful to use the word “goal” to express overall values and desires and to use the word “objective” to denote specific operational targets. ..."

7. "... A long list of “things to do,” often mislabeled as “strategies” or “objectives,” is not a strategy. It is just a list of things to do. ..."

8. "... When a leader characterizes the challenge as underperformance, it sets the stage for bad strategy. Underperformance is a result. The true challenges are the reasons for the underperformance. ..."

9. "... The core content of a strategy is a diagnosis of the situation at hand, the creation or identification of a guiding policy for dealing with the critical difficulties, and a set of coherent actions. ..."

10. "...Good strategy is not just “what” you are trying to do. It is also “why” and “how” you are doing it. ..."

11. "...A guiding policy creates advantage by anticipating the actions and reactions of others, by reducing the complexity and ambiguity in the situation, by exploiting the leverage inherent in concentrating effort on a pivotal or decisive aspect of the situation, and by creating policies and actions that are coherent, each building on the other rather than canceling one another out. ..."

12. "...Strategy is about action, about doing something. The kernel of a strategy must contain action. It does not need to point to all the actions that will be taken as events unfold, but there must be enough clarity about action to bring concepts down to earth. ..."

13. “Without action, the world would still be an idea.”

14. "... That is, the resource deployments, policies, and maneuvers that are undertaken should be consistent and coordinated. The coordination of action provides the most basic source of leverage or advantage available in strategy. ..."

15. "... agents. Strategic coordination, or coherence, is not ad hoc mutual adjustment. It is coherence imposed on a system by policy and design. More specifically, design is the engineering of fit among parts, specifying how actions and resources will be combined. ..."

16. "... In very general terms, a good strategy works by harnessing power and applying it where it will have the greatest effect. In the short term, this may mean attacking a problem or rival with adroit combinations of policy, actions, and resources. In the longer term, it may involve cleverly using policies and resource commitments to develop capabilities that will be of value in future contests. ..."

17. "... In competitive strategy, the key anticipations are often of buyer demand and competitive reactions. ..."

18."... The basic definition of competitive advantage is straightforward. If your business can produce at a lower cost than can competitors, or if it can deliver more perceived value than can competitors, or a mix of the two, then you have a competitive advantage. ..."

19. "... One must reexamine each aspect of product and process, casting aside the comfortable assumption that everyone knows what they are doing. Today, this approach to information flows and business processes is sometimes called “reengineering” or “business-process transformation.” Whatever it is called, the underlying principle is that improvements come from reexamining the details of how work is done, not just from cost controls or incentives. ..."

20. "... During the relatively stable periods between episodic transitions, it is difficult for followers to catch the leader, just as it is difficult for one of the two or three leaders to pull far ahead of the others. But in moments of transition, the old pecking order of competitors may be upset and a new order becomes possible. ..."

21. "... Fortunately, a leader does not need to get it totally right—the organization’s strategy merely has to be more right than those of its rivals. ..."

22. "... This property of mass—resistance to a change in motion—is inertia. In business, inertia is an organization’s unwillingness or inability to adapt to changing circumstances. ..."

23. "...entropy measures a physical system’s degree of disorder, and the second law of thermodynamics states that entropy always increases in an isolated physical system. Similarly, weakly managed organizations tend to become less organized and focused. ..."

24. "... Similarly, one can sense a business firm that has not been carefully managed. Its product line grows less focused; prices are set low to please the sales department, and shipping schedules are too long, pleasing only the factory. ..."

Rumelt, Richard. Good Strategy/Bad Strategy. Profile. Kindle Edition.


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A Modern Detective by Edgar Allan Poe - Review

A Modern DetectiveA Modern Detective by Edgar Allan Poe
My rating: 2 of 5 stars

2 simple stories whereby the main character (Auguste Dupin) due to its outstanding analytical capabilities is able to decipher & solve two unexplainable murders using his deductive capabilities based on the information he is able to see or read from the newspaper.

Good reading, short stories (bog plus) ...but not much more than that. Personally, must confess that learnt new vocabulary (not so often seen and used nowadays) and the only caveat is that most of it probably will forget due to the lack of its usage in my current readings.

A couple of quotes that caught my eye:

1. "... the analyst [...] is fond of enigmas, of conundrums, hieroglyphics; exhibiting in his solutions of each a degree of acumen which appears to the ordinary apprehension preternatural..."

2."...The faculty of re-solution is possibly much invigorated by mathematical study and especially by the highest branch of it [...]has been called, as if par excellence, analysis. ..."

3. "... the difference in the extent of the information obtained, lies not so much in the validity of the inference as in the quality of the observation..."

4. "... ¡The analytical power should not be confounded with simple ingenuity; for while the analyst is necessarily ingenious, the ingenious man is often remarkably incapable of analysis. ..."

5. "...the ingenious are always fanciful and the truly imaginative never otherwise than analytical..."

View all my reviews

1/29/2023

A Noite e a MadrugadaA Noite e a Madrugada by Fernando Namora
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

A Noite e a Madrugada, livro recomendado pelo meu Pai - um fã incondicional de Namora - descreve de uma forma dura e assertiva a forma como os portugueses viviam no interior do país nos finais dos anos 40.

Sob pretexto de contar a história de um episódio de contrabando entre Portugal e Espanha, descreve e critica a sociedade de então, das difíceis condições de vida, da fome, dos pequenos poderes instituídos e de como tudo se relacionava.

Na minha opinião as personagem em si têm muito mais valor por aquilo que representam dentro da sociedade dos anos 40 do que o seu papel "stricto sensu" na história em concreto.

Um retrato social que nos deve fazer pensar (pois eram as condições de vida de muitos dos nossos avós) e que deve ser conhecido por todos.

Recomendo a sua leitura!


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Homenagem à CatalunhaHomenagem à Catalunha by George Orwell
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

Um retrato pessoal da participação de George Orwell (Arthur Blair) na guerra civil espanhola (finais de 1936 a 1937).

Marcou-me a sua tentativa de descrever os factos de uma forma o mais objectiva possível, a narração do quotidiano nas trincheiras e o sentimento de impotência, o inimigo que numa guerra civil na maioria das vezes é uma questão quase arbitraria de onde se estava quando esta eclodiu, as divergências das forças republicanas socialistas vs. Marxistas vs. Anarquistas, a quantidade de pessoas que na altura estavam dispostas a lutar e morrer numa guerra a milhares de kms de distância para defender ideais políticos e de sociedade em que acreditavam.

No final e no meio de todas as pequenas lutas que existiam no lado republicano, existe como pano de fundo um profundo respeito e admiração da forma de viver e abordar a vida do povo espanhol, que acredito, que ainda com bastantes matizes, ainda perdure nos dias de hoje.

Aconselho a sua leitura pela qualidade da escrita mas também para todos aqueles que querem conhecer mais sobre a guerra civil espanhola e dos espanhóis enquanto Nação.


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12/04/2022

Belt and Road: A Chinese World OrderBelt and Road: A Chinese World Order by Bruno Maçães
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

A good and eye-opening perspective on the Chinese Belt and Road geopolitical strategy.

A geopolitical challenge to the status-quo order we are seeing unfolding in our lifetimes.

Do recommend its reading.



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Politics and the English LanguagePolitics and the English Language by George Orwell
My rating: 2 of 5 stars

Read this book based on Economist's recommendation on how to become a better writer, it entails 5 small essays on writing, writers and politics. Liked it, but was expecting something different.

A couple of excerpts i really liked with good advice:

"A scrupulous writer, in every sentence that he writes, will ask himself at least four questions, thus: What am I trying to say? What words will express it? What image or idiom will make it clearer? Is this image fresh enough to have an effect? And he will probably ask himself two more: Could I put it more shortly? Have I said anything that is avoidably ugly? But you are not obliged to go to all this trouble."

Basic Rules one should follow
" (i) Never use a metaphor, simile or other figure of speech which you are used to seeing in print. (ii) Never use a long word where a short one will do. (iii) If it is possible to cut a word out, always cut it out. (iv) Never use the passive where you can use the active. (v) Never use a foreign phrase, a scientific word or a jargon word if you can think of an everyday English equivalent. (vi) Break any of these rules sooner than say anything barbarous."

George Orwell. Politics and the English Language. Distributed Proofreaders Canada. Edición de Kindle.

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Por Quem os Sinos DobramPor Quem os Sinos Dobram by Ernest Hemingway
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

Muito bom. Recomendo a todos a sua leitura.

Abriu-me a porta, de um forma surpreendente, da Guerra Civil Espanhola que espero explorar rapidamente e ao mesmo tempo uma historia tão actual tendo em consideracão a realidade em que vivemos na Europa e no Mundo.

"Nenhum homem é uma ilha, isolado em si mesmo; todos são parte do continente, uma parte de um todo. Se um torrão de terra for levado pelas águas até o mar, a Europa ficará diminuída, como se fosse um promontório, como se fosse o solar de teus amigos ou o teu próprio; a morte de qualquer homem me diminui, porque sou parte do género humano. E por isso não perguntes por quem os sinos dobram; eles dobram por ti". John Donne

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Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About The World - And Why Things Are Better Than You ThinkFactfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About The World - And Why Things Are Better Than You Think by Hans Rosling
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

Great book that shows the importance of data and how you should base your actions based on sound and correct data and how you should avoid the recurring bias/instincts while doing so.

Hans took macro facts and trends to exemplify the most common mistakes, but those could be applied into your daily life (professional and personal).

Common bias to be aware of:
1. Gap Instinct (beware of averages, extremes and perspectives)
2. Negative Instinct (distinguish between level and direction, that good news is not news - specially gradual improvements, more bad news does not mean more suffering or bad trends, beware of rosy pasts)
3. Straight line instinct - the worldly trends are not linear
4. Fear instinct - be afraid of the dangerous events, know how to calculate the risk (danger * exposure), avoid making decision when with a fear mindset
5. Size instinct - get all things in proportion and comparable, define benchmarks
6.Generalization Instinct - beware of using categories/generic groups to explain events/situations, look for differences, similarities within and across, majorities and vivid examples to explain complex realities
7-Destiny Instinct - Changes might be happening slowly, but their are happening, update you knowledge, beware of cultural changes
8- Single perspective Instinct - broaden your perspectives, test your ideas, avoid hammer and nails approach, trust and look at the numbers when they explain the story, beware of simple ideas and solutions
9- Blame instinct - trying to find culprits instead of causes, look for systems that underpin success instead of heroes
10 - Urgency Instinct - beware of the need of urgent and immediate decisions, take your time, require the minimum data, beware of fortune tellers, the future cannot be precisely defined, work in scenarios, be aware of drastic actions.

Strongly advise its reading.

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Understanding Money MechanicsUnderstanding Money Mechanics by Robert P. Murphy
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

A great book on money (and consequently on inflation). A wonderful review on the basic concepts or an easy introduction for a lay person on the subject.

Introduces or revisits the Austrian economic theory of Credit Circulation Theory of Trade Cycle, Equation of Exchange, Keynesian Approach, the Market Monetarists and Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). On top it redirects you and provides relevant bibliography in case you want to get a more sophisticated knowledge in any of the previously mentioned subjects.

Highly recommend it, especially on the times we are currently living.

My highlighted Quotes:

"...A formal definition for money is that it’s a universally accepted medium of exchange. [...] medium of exchange to possess the following qualities: ease of transport, durability, divisibility, homogeneity, and convenient size and weight for the intended transactions..."


"...Among the foreign coins circulating among the American colonists, the most popular was the Spanish silver dollar. This made the term “dollar” common in the colonies, explaining why the Continental currency was denominated in “dollars” and why the US federal government—newly established under the US Constitution—would choose “dollar” as the country’s official unit of currency. ..."

"...Inflation, as this term was always used everywhere and especially in this country [the United States], means increasing the quantity of money and bank notes in circulation and the quantity of bank deposits subject to check. But people today use the term “inflation” to refer to the phenomenon that is an inevitable consequence of inflation, that is the tendency of all prices and wage rates to rise. The result of this deplorable confusion is that there is no term left to signify the cause of this rise in prices and wages. There is no longer any word available to signify the phenomenon that has been, up to now, called inflation. It follows that nobody cares about inflation in the traditional sense of the term. As you cannot talk about something that has no name, you cannot fight it. Those who pretend to fight inflation are in fact only fighting what is the inevitable consequence of inflation, rising prices. ..."

"..It is standard for economists to handle the relationship between money and prices using the equation of exchange, credited to Irving Fisher, which is nowadays11 often written as: MV = PQ where M is the quantity of money in the economy, V is the “velocity of circulation,” meaning the average number of times a unit of money “changes hands” during the time period in question,12 P is the “average price level,” and Q is the total quantity of real output produced during the period. ..."

"...Milton Friedman is often quoted as saying, “Inflation is always and every-where a monetary phenomenon.”..."

"...At this time, let us emphasize the important point that government cannot be in any way a fountain of resources; all that it spends, all that it distributes in largesse, it must first acquire in revenue, i.e., it must first extract from the “private sector.”..."

"...After explaining that government spending programs merely return resources to the private sector that had previously been taken from it, the economist will inform the public that there are three methods by which this taking occurs: taxation, borrowing, and inflation. The economist will often add that government borrowing can be considered merely deferred taxation, while inflation is merely hidden taxation. ..."

"...the printing press allows the government to get away with spending that the public would never agree to explicitly pay for, through straightforward tax hikes. ..."


Murphy, Robert. Understanding Money Mechanics. Ludwig von Mises Institute. Kindle Edition.

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How Spies Think: Ten Lessons in IntelligenceHow Spies Think: Ten Lessons in Intelligence by David Omand
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

Interesting book on the art of intelligence.

The part one (chapter 1 to 4) is where I found more value mainly on:
1- The framework presented SEES:
a) Situational Awareness - what is happening and what we face now
b) Explanation - why are we seeing what we do and the motivation of those involved
c) Estimates and Forecasts - how events may unfold under different assumptions
d) Strategic Notice - of futures issues that may come to challenge us in the longer term

2 - The relevance of Bayesian thinking in the overall framework, mainly on first 3 stages

3- The choice of facts is not neutral, nor do facts speak for themselves

4- Importance to express predictions and forecasts as probabilities

5- The strategic Risk Equation - Risk = likelihood * vulnerability * impact

Relevant Quotes:

" As a general rule it is the explanatory hypothesis with the least evidence against it that is most likely to be the best one for us to adopt. The logic is that one strong contrary result can disconfirm a hypothesis. Apparently confirmatory evidence on the other hand can still be consistent with other hypotheses being true..."

"...reducing the ignorance of the decisionmaker does not necessarily mean simplifying..."

"...For analytic thinkers the equivalent ability is tolerating the pain and confusion of not knowing, rather than imposing ready-made or omnipotent certainties on ambiguous situations or emotional challenges..."

"...where there is a choice of explanation apply Occam's Razor (named after the fourteenth-century Franciscan friar William of Occam) and favor the explanation that does not rely on complex, improbable or numerous assumptions..."



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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the MarketsFooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

"...A book review, good or bad, can be far more descriptive of the reviewer than informational about the book itself. ..."

A book I strongly recommend to all. It takes you into a journey of explaining how the basic principles of probabilities impacts your day-to-day and based on that to allow you to navigate the randomness of life. For me, although some concepts were known, it has opened a window for future readings and fields of study

My key takeaways would be the following:
1.- we need to embrace and accept the lack of certainty of our knowledge and thus develop methods for dealing with our ignorance.
2.- The process followed to achieve an outcome is on the long-run definitely more important than the outcome in itself (that can be significantly skewed by random effects)
3.- The importance of Expected Value vs. Probabilities and how Monte Carlo simulations is one of the most effective tools/methods to explore and calculate both
4.-The past success measured mainly based on outcomes, will be an awful proxy of future performance (Probabilities + Survivorship bias)
5. - The importance to distinguish noise from signal, especially in a world where we get data/info every second. An investment with 15% return and 10% volatility translates into:
- a 93% probability of success if we look at it yearly.
- a 77% probability of success if we look at it quarterly,
- a 67% probability of success if we look at it monthly,
- a 54 % probability of success if we look at it daily,
- a 50.2 % probability of success if we look at it every second,
6.- The absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence....
7.- Probabilities are counter intuitive. Example: a medical exam presents 5% of false positives, the disease impact 1/1000 of the population. If a test is positive what is the probability a tester has the disease? Correct answer <2%, most likely not your answer.
8.- The ability to think overcomes the ability to compute

Quotes:
- Aut tace aut loquere meliora silencio (only when the words outperform silence). When should we speak

- “The observation of the numerous misfortunes that attend all conditions forbids us to grow insolent upon our present enjoyments, or to admire a man’s happiness that may yet, in course of time, suffer change. For the uncertain future has yet to come, with all variety of future; and him only to whom the divinity has [guaranteed] continued happiness until the end we may call happy.” Solon's warning

- allergic to the vocabulary of business talk, not just on plain aesthetic grounds. Phrases like “game plan,” “bottom line,” “how to get there from here,” “we provide our clients with solutions,” “our mission,” and other hackneyed expressions that dominate meetings lack both the precision and the coloration

-Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.

- one cannot judge a performance in any given field (war, politics, medicine, investments) by the results, but by the costs of the alternative (i.e., if history played out in a different way).

- use of mathematics is only illustrative, aiming at getting the intuition of the point, and should not be interpreted as an engineering issue. In other words, one need not actually compute the alternative histories so much as assess their attributes. Mathematics is not just a “numbers game,” it is a way of thinking. We will see that probability is a qualitative subject.

- Finally, in economics: Economists studied (perhaps unwittingly) some of the Leibnizian ideas with the possible “states of nature” pioneered by Kenneth Arrow and Gerard Debreu. This analytical approach to the study of economic uncertainty is called the “state space” method—it happens to be the cornerstone of neoclassical economic theory and mathematical finance. A simplified version is called “scenario analysis,” the series of “what-ifs” used in, say, the forecasting of sales for a fertilizer plant under different world conditions and demands for the (smelly) product.

- today—as the world becomes more and more complicated and our minds are trained for more and more simplification.

- Mathematics is principally a tool to meditate, rather than to compute.

- The wise man listens to meaning; the fool only gets the noise.

- Over a short time increment, one observes the variability of the portfolio, not the returns.

- It is preferable to be lucky than competent (but you can be caught).

- Evolutionary theorists agree that brainwork depends on how the subject is presented and the frame offered—and they can be contradictory in their results.

- The trick is to look only at the large percentage changes. Unless something moves by more than its usual daily percentage change, the event is deemed to be noise.

- is not the estimate or the forecast that matters so much as the degree of confidence with the opinion.

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. Incerto 5-Book Bundle (p. 41). Random House Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.

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The Glass HotelThe Glass Hotel by Emily St. John Mandel
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

An enjoyable novel, easy to read, and well written that walks you through several personal stories that are intertwined on the central story of Jonathan Alkaitis, a fund manager that successfully ran a Ponzi Scheme for several decades, until it blew-up in the 2008 great recession (the latter inspired on Bernie Madoff story).

A good book to make your mind relax and enjoy a couple of hours of a dynamic and alluring, but simple, reading.

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