Fifteen CEOs, scored on what was theirs
An attribution-adjusted assessment of fifteen anonymized chief executives across industries. Each rating strips out inherited strategy, cyclical tailwinds, one-time items and base-effect recovery before it credits the leader.
Composite comparison
The ranking
Ranked by raw composite, the simple average of thirteen dimension scores. The raw composite answers "how well led is this company". Delta and TSR residual answer the harder question: how much did the leader add beyond the hand they were dealt. Click a column heading to re-sort.
| Case | Tenure | TSR residual |
|---|
Baseline: the company at handoverRaw composite: the leader's scorecardThe line between them is the delta.
How to read it
Two measures of CEO contribution
The most common analytical error is to confuse the baseline (the hand dealt) with expected performance (what a peer-median CEO would deliver with that hand, in that cycle). They are different concepts and produce different measurements.
Delta from baseline
Asks whether the company's qualitative state improved during the tenure. A direction-of-travel check. It says nothing about what a competent replacement would have done.
TSR residual vs expected
Asks whether the CEO beat a peer-median replacement holding the same hand over the same window. This is the value-creation measurement. Total return includes reinvested dividends; buybacks are judged under capital allocation, not added to TSR.
What changed since May
The September refresh
For the eleven tenures still running, we pulled verified total returns from 29 May to 28 Sep 2026 for the company, its peer set and its index, then checked whether any TSR band, CEO status or consensus view had changed. Four tenures had already closed. No point score moved. Three scores now carry a range, and one case was rebuilt from scratch.
| # | Case | Status | What the refresh found | Consensus (analysts) |
|---|
Case files
Fifteen scorecards
Each dossier shows the setup, the key metrics, the verdict and the thirteen-dimension scorecard. Scores of N/A are excluded from the averages. Value weighting doubles Strategic Vision, Capital Allocation, Operational Execution and TSR, the four dimensions that drive durable value.
Closing observations
What the fifteen cases show
Originators sit on top, hired or founder
The top four all originated the thesis that now defines the company, and one of them is a hired CEO. Stewards of fortresses come next, then executors of inherited plans, then leaders ousted or churned under cause. The spread runs 2.7 to 8.8 without collapsing to a middle.
A high baseline is a test, not a credit
Payments and aerospace both inherited near-duopoly franchises. One turned that hand into a strongly positive residual; the other into a deeply negative one. Seven of the eight negative deltas belong to leaders who inherited baselines of 6.5 or higher.
Where the framework parts with the Street
On the main aggregator, consensus rates every live case Buy or better, including aerospace at Strong Buy. The framework is harsher on competent operators of inherited premium franchises. Sell-side prices the stock; the framework grades the leader. Both can be right at once.
Method and provenance
How the numbers were built
The framework
- Four adjustment disciplines: strip one-time items, separate cyclical from structural, separate inherited from originated, separate input metrics from output targets.
- Four symmetry gates: equal-depth evidence sheets, a challenger pass on every score of 7 or above, a peer-median counterfactual, and an insider pushback test.
- Baseline scorecard: five factors scored at handover (franchise, balance sheet, culture, strategic clarity, cycle position).
- Every score is anchored to a hard metric and threshold, or to observable components combined by a stated rule.
- Hard rules: an ousted CEO caps at 3 on Board & Governance; a 9 or 10 on Strategic Vision needs two dated, pre-consensus decisions.
This refresh
- Prices: exchange closes on 29 May and 28 Sep 2026, cross-checked on a second source where available. Total return = (end price + dividends with ex-dates in the window) ÷ start price − 1, in local currency.
- Consensus ratings and average targets: aggregator pages dated 11 to 29 Sep 2026.
- All composites were recomputed in code from the dimension scores. Four differed from the values recorded in May by 0.2 to 0.4 points, and this page uses the recomputed values. Enterprise software rises from 7.8 to 8.1. Commercial aerospace falls from 3.5 to 3.1. Payments rises from 7.0 to 7.2. Premium footwear rises from 5.4 to 5.6. The rank order is unchanged apart from the payments and gold-mining swap.
- Two pairs are ties on raw composite (5.92 and 5.58) and should not be read as ranked.
The rebuilt case
The mass-retail case was rebuilt from the verified public record. Its earlier scorecard drew on evidence from an unrelated case, so it was replaced rather than refreshed. Every figure in the new version is sourced to company filings, releases and exchange prices: tenure total return against the two main peers and the broad market, the operating margin at the 2021 peak and at exit, and the timeline of the two margin goals. Its baseline of 4.8 is a new judgment-anchored score.
Known limits
- The framework scores observable performance. It cannot detect undisclosed fraud or concealed misconduct.
- Four refresh inputs are unverified or weak: one financial-sector index start price (undated source), one medical-device peer start price (not found), one peer end price from a low-volume snapshot, and a sell-side split for two names.
- Residuals over short tenures are dominated by noise. Treat them as point estimates with wide error bars.
