Quote - Economic Forecasters conundrum - The signal and the noise - Silver

 “…economic forecasters face three fundamental challenges.

First, it is very hard to determine cause and effect from economic statistics alone. Second, the economy is always changing, so explanations of economic behavior that hold in one business cycle may not apply to future ones. And third, as bad as their forecasts have been, the data that economists have to work with isn't much good either. …”