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11/10/2023

Quote - Peter Bernstein → Graham, Benjamin. El inversor inteligente (Deusto) (Spanish Edition) (p. 715). Deusto. Kindle Edition.

“In making decisions under conditions of uncertainty, the consequences must dominate the probabilities" - Peter Bernstein

«A la hora de adoptar decisiones en condiciones de incertidumbre, las consecuencias deben dominar a las probabilidades. Nunca sabemos lo que va a pasar en el futuro».

The World Ahead 2024 - Registered

The World Ahead 2024

Countries, companies and citizens around the world are grappling with economic uncertainty and rapid technological change. The green transition. AI. Conflict in Europe and the Middle East. As countries accounting for more than half the world’s population go to the polls, what will influence voters?

Tom Standage, editor of The World Ahead, presents ten trends that will shape the coming year in conversation with the deputy editor of 1843 magazine, Abbie Fielding-Smith.

There will be an opportunity to ask questions during the live event. You can also submit them in advance with

Book added to the Library - Broke Millennial: Stop Scraping By and Get Your Financial Life Together

Recommended by a former colleague!

Broke Millennial: Stop Scraping By and Get Your Financial Life Together

Stop Living Paycheck to Paycheck and Get Your Financial Life Together (#GYFLT)! If you’re a cash-strapped 20- or 30-something, it’s easy to get freaked out by finances. But you’re not doomed to spend your life drowning in debt or mystified by money. It’s time to stop scraping by and take control of your money and your life with this savvy and smart guide. Broke Millennial shows step-by-step how to go from flat-broke to financial badass. Unlike most personal finance books out there, it doesn’t just cover boring stuff like credit card debt, investing, and dealing with the dreaded “B” word (budgeting). Financial expert Erin Lowry goes beyond the basics to tackle tricky money matters and situations most of us face #IRL, including: - Understanding your relationship with moolah: do you treat it like a Tinder date or marriage material?- Managing student loans without having a full-on panic attack- What to do when you’re out with your crew and can’t afford to split the bill evenly- How to get “financially naked” with your partner and find out his or her “number” (debt number, of course) . . . and much more. Packed with refreshingly simple advice and hilarious true stories, Broke Millennial is the essential roadmap every financially clueless millennial needs to become a money master.

The Pareto Rule of Prediction/Forecast - from "The signal and the noise - Silver"

Great viz that explains how your first 20% of effort provides you an 80% of accuracy level on your predictions/forecasts, i.e. by applying rules of critical thinking and basic statistics you will get a very good prediction/forecast of the possible future scenarios.

In a business environment, where what it counts is the relative position of your predictions/forecasts vs. the ones competition does, 80% could be good enough or really below par and that can make a huge difference.

At the end if you do not have any forecasts/prediction tool, investing 20% of your perfect effort (that depends on the question you are trying to address) will be a game changer.

ps.: Forecast is different from Prediction (see a previous substack on that)

The signal and the noise - Silver