Great viz that explains how your first 20% of effort provides you an 80% of accuracy level on your predictions/forecasts, i.e. by applying rules of critical thinking and basic statistics you will get a very good prediction/forecast of the possible future scenarios.
In a business environment, where what it counts is the relative position of your predictions/forecasts vs. the ones competition does, 80% could be good enough or really below par and that can make a huge difference.
Las mentiras más peligrosas son las verdades ligeramente distorsionadas.
https://substack.com/profile/66725113-pedro/note/c-42899651?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=13q5fd
I really struggle to divide both activities! For me Leadership (or to lead) is 1 of the 4 key activities any good manager has to master, the others are: (i) to plan, (ii) to organize and (iii) to control.
For me it was always a puzzle how one can you make such segregation. It is true that in your journey from junior to senior manager the leadership traits have to be significantly more developed, but that is part of the journey.
This dichotomy Manager vs. Leader will always be a puzzle to me (or not if we look where it started, but that is for a post in itself).
“…in contrast, if you just look at the economy as a series of variables and equations without any underlying structure, you are almost certain to mistake noise for a signal and may delude yourself (and gullible investors) into thinking you are making good forecasts when you are not. …”
