Sunday, March 1, 2020

Sunday thoughts - while Peppa Pig and the kind is playing nonstop on my tele.

Another Sunday morning, Peppa Pig, Paw Patrol and SpongeBob are playing non stop on the tele, for the happiness of my 3 kids and my mind tries find refuge somewhere else for the sake of my mental sanity.

Is based on this setup that i started thinking about an article that i have read in the Economist that basically was saying that all the latest big successful IPOs were almost exclusively done by companies that had blitzscaled based on business models that the winner takes it all, thus growth at all cost trumps anything else and the price they charge for the services/products provided are significantly below the price of its marginal costs and even not mentioning its value (the Uber, Lyft, Neflix, Spotify, Tesla's of these world). This, then creates an huge consumer surplus and on a macro level tames the inflation on the big economies.

If we compound all the direct effects created by this trend and also the spillovers to the other industries, we mix it with the trade wars and the massive subsidies that are being given to the Agricultural sector in the US and also in EU (the latter something almost perennial since the EU inception), we see that most probably the current low inflation could be the results of all these non natural factors that cannot be sustained on the long term (the markets are already asking positive results to these companies and that can only be achieved with higher prices that the end-consumer will have to pay eventually).

Then if we go from the Micro to Macro, we see that the QE and historical low interest rates (even negative) can be done only in an environment of low inflation and even with this big stimulus we denote that the economic growth prospects are dismal to say the least to the advanced economies.

So if inflation picks-up due to this rebalancing of the current pricing levels of these everyday more important products/services in the CPI basket (technological and agricultural ones) and the low inflation scenario disappear are we set to a major disruption in Macro terms?

Well, just started an episode of Motown Magic that i really like, thus have decided to stop the nonsense thinking and enjoy the music and the story with my 3 kids! Enjoy the weekend!

Review: The Conservative Sensibility

The Conservative Sensibility The Conservative Sensibility by George F. Will
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

Really enjoyed reading this book and do recommend it to all the ones interested in political science.

I do think that all, so called conservatives or progressives, should read it so they can have a better perspective on what Conservatism is, entails and projects from a societal standpoint.

Several misconceptions and believes from both sides are exposed, analyzed and significantly challenged. You might not agree with everything (even be far from that), but, as it's presented, will allow you to think about it and stress your own philosophy and political building blocks.

The big question is: are there natural rights, consequence of the human existence and uniqueness, that supersede any social and moral construct, made by men and imposed by a majority, that should be the overarching principles of any society (eg. "...all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness ..." - take creator as you might feel appropriate). If yes, these principles are prior to any social construct and are its unchangeable foundations.

Based on this premise all the areas of a society (judicial, executive, legislative, economic, science, etc...) should be based and always address and respect these natural rights and protect them no matter what (the so called conservative sensibility).

The book has broaden my way thinking (made me address these problems in a different way) and pushed the boundaries of my rationale and how I framed some essential questions. Writing that, i do not say that i fully agree with the author, but even when i disagree it made me think of my preconceived and long established ideas.

What I really liked in the book were the areas related with the:
- epistemological framework of the conservative sensibility;
- balance of the 3 political powers (executive, legislative and judicial) and how they have been biased to the executive side and with that the distortion that we can currently see in the society and;
- The political economy chapter.

So why i did not rate it higher (more than 3)? Mainly due to 3 main reason, that are:
1 - the book is significantly biased to the US reality - very interesting, but sometimes limiting the full conservative spectrum;
2 - The book could have between 100 to 150 pages less, the arguments are properly disclosed, explained and rationale/critic presented, however sometimes this exercise is stretched beyond the value added that is generated by the additional pages;
3- The use of quotes to support the author argument are excessive and make the writing to lose momentum and sometimes disappear.

As a final overview, it was a pleasure its reading and time well invested.


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